DunderMifflinPaperTrades

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DunderMifflinPaperTrades

DunderMifflinPaperTrades

@MifflinTrades

World’s Best Paper Trader. | Bears. Beets. Volume Profiles.

Katılım Kasım 2021
64 Takip Edilen356 Takipçiler
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
Main trade I took from today was a short term counter trend trade long. Came into the session with a short bias due to YDAY and OVN session. Got to discussing the trade with @jestertrading33 and another member in his discord and was reflecting. We as traders don’t get paid to sit in front of the computer all day but for the opportunity we spot in the moment and how quickly/efficiently we can capitalize on that opportunity. As that trade began to present itself, I had a decision to make. Take it even though it’s against my bias on the day or leave it. What made me click the button to enter the trade aside from my trade reasons and orderflow? A simple question, "if this is within my setup will I be happy if I skip the trade and it ends up working out?" Answer was no. The psychology aspect was just as important here as much as the trade setup was for me. A common mistake I used to make and I think many beginner traders make is they skip the trade, see it start to work in their favor and then end up chasing trying to get in wherever leading to over trading. "Damn I knew it was going to work." The over trading didn’t start after taking multiple attempts to enter and getting stopped, it started when they failed to ask themselves if they were truly okay with the risk of letting it run without them. The opportunity cost IMO is just as important of a “risk" to consider as much as a monetary risk. It’s a fine line. Systemizing your entry framework can help take the emotions out. In my case, I wasn’t okay seeing it work out without me because my system told me I should take the trade alongside a couple extra confluences. I don’t know whether it will work out in my favor or not, I just know I see my parameters lining up for an entry so I need to execute. The rest is out of my hands.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/20 Trade Review: 1L: -4.25 PTS Pulled trigger on short too quick 1W: 16.5 PTS NET: 12.25 PTS. Thesis: Pushed into weekly LIS zone. 6:45 AM PST candle sweeped intraday high 6:35 AM PST candle. Sold early in hindsight but PMKT plan was to trade zone to zone just to get a good feeling for the week. Nothing crazy but good warm up to start the week.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/20 Plan for me: 🌙OVN session saw a LAAF of PDH, value remains the same as Friday's RTH session. Risk of remaining inside of Thursday's OVN range is high if MKT attempts an upside push. 📉If MKT pushes into 7494-7498 FIRST off the open, will be looking for responsive bids. 📈If MKT pushes up into 7552-7561 FIRST off the open, will be looking for re-offers to join in short. This zone is my highest quality potential setup for the day if I can get it as it lines up with the weekly LIS as it lines up with weekly plan. 💭Personally, will remain patient to let MKT setup for the week and focus will be taking profits from zone to zone. Nothing I see that I am super excited about besides that major re-offer zone honestly.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/20-7/24 Weekly Plan: 🔍The focus for this week: Can sellers continue and breakout of this 2 week balance lower or do we find ourselves back in the balance? 📅Thursday 7/16 OVN and Friday's 7/17 RTH session made a statement. 1st pic: Daily TF showing the larger balance MKT has been trading in since May and the 2 week balance we've been trading in. 2nd pic: Weekly market profiles. 📈Case for buyers: IMO need to reclaim 7538-7557 before we can even talk about any chance of upside. If that is reclaimed, 7590 which is the 2 WK POC would be next major re-offer zone. Other scenario we can see is a sweep AND reclaim of the 2 WK balance low of 7468. VERY VERY POSSIBLE. 📉Case for sellers: Sell pops into 7538-7557 zone and work down into 7468 and breaking BELOW . They would then need to maintain price BELOW 7468. If pops into 7468 from below then get defended, 7407 and 7363 are very reasonable targets. ‼️Tap into 7360s or 7327-7344 zone makes a good area for responsive bids to show up. Would be very very careful in shorting in these areas. 💭OPINION: From a volume and price action perspective, bearish case is stronger for me unless buyers are able to reclaim the weekly LIS zone (7538-7557) with dips into this zone being bought afterwards. 🔑I think bearish short term but still looks like a solid bullish consolidation/balance. For me, this outlook changes if we break below 7300s and hold below.
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NERV
NERV@NERV_flow·
This is what it is called when you accidentially fat finger your flatten hot key...
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/17 Plan for me: OPEX Friday 🌙Nice move lower OVN with considerable volume build lower. ‼️MKT approaching some very big re-bid zones from weekly plan: 1⃣st zone it is in currently: 7490-7502 IF that holds in RTH, I would not mind a bid into 7522. 2⃣nd big weekly zone: 7453-7466. This would be where I would feel most comfortable watching for re-bids and joining in on longs. There is some support at 7471-7478 as an honorary mention but b/c there is a much larger re-bid zone underneath, I am not as keen on longing here. I could see an initial reaction here but I won't take it. ‼️Single prints left behind in OVN session that MAY act as resistance or can use as upside targets if long, they are: 7524 & 7525.25: There could be a scenario in which this could be the HOD for RTH if upside is capped. 7543.25 7556.75 All in all, will be more defensive today due to OPEX. Chasing will get you killed. Stick to your spots where you want to do business.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/16 Plan for me: 🌙MKT finally broke above PWKH OVN and now trading in crucial 7584-7595 zone. ‼️MKT has its work cut out for further upside path after sweeping PWKH OVN and trading down under 7600 now. 🔑Upside: must hold 7589-7596 zone. Then MKT has weekly open: 7607 to deal with next then re-offer zone: 7613-7671.75. Clear that and PDH and OVNH are big next up levels. 🔑 Downside: 7589-7596 turn into a re-offer zone. OVNL and PDL below. Then 7561-7565 below. Watch for responsive bids to show up there. If it fails, VERY telling. Opinions: MKT did JUST ENOUGH to not be an inside week. Currently not showing much urgency to push to upside, building a lot of volume b/w 7580-7595. I need to see some sort of urgency by buyers to push to upside otherwise, it's shaping up to be a failed breakout. Looking to get long, I would try to get in as close to 7600 for best R:R, longing at 7613-7617 zone, I'd need to see something SPECIAL to make me do that.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
Midweek update: Annotated the chart on what I'm watching for rest of the week. Constructive so far today for upside after the dip buy unless news changes things. Weekly open/balance high LVL: 7607 is the one to watch. Key is to not only build volume above but needing to HOLD above as well. Build and lose that volume may only add fuel for downside.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades

$ES 7/13-7/17 Weekly Plan: Major focus for me this week: Do we hold for push towards ATH or another LAAF on HTF in play? Lets start w/ a larger outlook and hone in to the weekly: ‼️We've created a nice balance since May until now. 👀The obvious LARGE balance is about 400 points from approximately 7294-7694. ‼️However, most of the volume is concentrated b/w a 200 point range: 7407-7607. 🔍This 200 point balance range is my focus. 🗓️Week of 6/13 saw trading above but ultimately could not sustain and we fell back into balance. Then the next 2 weeks MKT tested the other side of the balance @ 7407. CLASSIC MARKET AUCTION THEORY AT PLAY. The now: On Friday 7/10, MKT broke above 7607 and created a new current monthly high of: 7627.25. 🔍The focus this week is: can the MKT sustain and create volume above this balance high of 7607 to make a push up into major re-offer zone of: 7638-7672. ‼️I am on watch for the possibility of a LAAF scenario to see whether we fall back into the 200 point balance. Based on the HLs MKT has been forming for the last 3 weeks gives possibility for MKT to push towards re-offer area to build volume. 🐂Scenario: ⚔️7514.5: This is my LIS area on the week. One possibility I am watching though is a break under to tap 7490-7502 zone for push back higher. 🐂🐂Most bullish scenario: Tap into 7584-7593 re-bid and MKT never looks back. In this scenario, push to ATH is most likely. 🐂2nd most bullish scenario: Re-bid 7539.75-7557 zone for responsive buying. 🐻Scenario: 🐻🐻MKT makes a quick push up into 7638-7672 major re-offer zone at the BEGINNING of the week and fails. Special attention to: 7658.5 LVL. 🐻This opens the door for LHs to form on the daily as MKT tries and fails to get back up there causing a drift back in to that 200 point balance. 🐻Failure to sustain and build meaningful volume ABOVE 7607.5. ‼️Those HTF re-bid zones mentioned in the bullish scenarios become major re-offer zones that MKT cannot clear. A "messier" scenario could be: break of PWK Low tap 7453-7466 to attempt push higher. I say messier b/c this now opens up the possibility of 7490-7502 zone to be turned into a re-offer zone.

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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/15 Plan for me: Post PPI 🌙OVN session filled out the low vol. area of the past 2 days, mainly from yesterday's session. It also built value above PDH. 👀Main zone I will be watching as a LIS today is: 7589-7595. 🐂 Scenario: If MKT comes down to test LIS zone FIRST, will be watching for re-bids to get long. If it fails, I will need to see it fail and come back up towards to zone for re-offers. Will not be the first to short the zone. ‼️Can see a LBAF of LIS zone for move back up. So I will be on lookout for that and also why I will not short on first break of LIS zone. 🧸Scenario: If MKT shoots up towards the re-offer zones above, will be watching for re-offers/reaction. or strong break of LIS zone and getting short on re-offers.
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BANGBROS
BANGBROS@BANGBROZZZZZZZ·
@MifflinTrades Ahhh yes.. Consistently is another matter. Getting there!
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/14 Plan for me: Post CPI 🌙OVN session built value lower, CPI candle LAAF of PDH. To me, overhead supply is strong at this point. For upside continuation, 7595-7605 needs to clear. I would only consider longs in this area if a pullback into the area gets bought. Will not be a 1st time buyer in this area. Watching 2 scenarios @ the open: 1⃣If MKT pushes into 7586-7593 FIRST on open, watching for re-offers to join in on shorts. 2⃣If MKT pushes down into 7563-7568 FIRST on open, watching for re-bids to judge buyer strength/intention. Overall, will be more patient for trades today. Post CPI days are very prone to very very convincing fakeouts.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
@BANGBROZZZZZZZ 🔥🔥 10-15 points on ES is absolutely freaking solid man! Being about to catch 10 points consistently with solid risk management is enough to make crazy good money. Yeah zones drawn using a few different volume profiles.
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BANGBROS
BANGBROS@BANGBROZZZZZZZ·
@MifflinTrades Yes, very nice short indeed. Entered on the confirmation after 8:45 candle. 10-15 pts ain't much but its honest work. Are the zones you're referring to drawn based on volume profile?
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
Nah I wanted to but b/c I had 2 major re-offer zones right above and it was CPI, I didn't trust the long to just rip straight through the zones I had above. I wanted a re-test at the very least. I got stopped twice and then finally caught the LBAF scenario I had on the chart of 7563-7568 zone after that 7:15 AM PST candle. Then we got that rip candle at 7:30 am PST and I exited as that candle formed it's wick. Fairly uneventful day for me honestly. Nice job on the 85s short!
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BANGBROS
BANGBROS@BANGBROZZZZZZZ·
@MifflinTrades This means all the levels and analyses you post are back-adjusted for previous contracts right? Only the latest contract would match my own levels.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades
DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
$ES 7/13-7/17 Weekly Plan: Major focus for me this week: Do we hold for push towards ATH or another LAAF on HTF in play? Lets start w/ a larger outlook and hone in to the weekly: ‼️We've created a nice balance since May until now. 👀The obvious LARGE balance is about 400 points from approximately 7294-7694. ‼️However, most of the volume is concentrated b/w a 200 point range: 7407-7607. 🔍This 200 point balance range is my focus. 🗓️Week of 6/13 saw trading above but ultimately could not sustain and we fell back into balance. Then the next 2 weeks MKT tested the other side of the balance @ 7407. CLASSIC MARKET AUCTION THEORY AT PLAY. The now: On Friday 7/10, MKT broke above 7607 and created a new current monthly high of: 7627.25. 🔍The focus this week is: can the MKT sustain and create volume above this balance high of 7607 to make a push up into major re-offer zone of: 7638-7672. ‼️I am on watch for the possibility of a LAAF scenario to see whether we fall back into the 200 point balance. Based on the HLs MKT has been forming for the last 3 weeks gives possibility for MKT to push towards re-offer area to build volume. 🐂Scenario: ⚔️7514.5: This is my LIS area on the week. One possibility I am watching though is a break under to tap 7490-7502 zone for push back higher. 🐂🐂Most bullish scenario: Tap into 7584-7593 re-bid and MKT never looks back. In this scenario, push to ATH is most likely. 🐂2nd most bullish scenario: Re-bid 7539.75-7557 zone for responsive buying. 🐻Scenario: 🐻🐻MKT makes a quick push up into 7638-7672 major re-offer zone at the BEGINNING of the week and fails. Special attention to: 7658.5 LVL. 🐻This opens the door for LHs to form on the daily as MKT tries and fails to get back up there causing a drift back in to that 200 point balance. 🐻Failure to sustain and build meaningful volume ABOVE 7607.5. ‼️Those HTF re-bid zones mentioned in the bullish scenarios become major re-offer zones that MKT cannot clear. A "messier" scenario could be: break of PWK Low tap 7453-7466 to attempt push higher. I say messier b/c this now opens up the possibility of 7490-7502 zone to be turned into a re-offer zone.
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DunderMifflinPaperTrades@MifflinTrades·
The most likely difference is I have my contracts setup as "continuous back adjusted." vs you may be looking at the ESU6 contract directly. So on mine the historical prices get shifted across each contract roll. All down to preference but I'm fairly certain that's the reason for the difference :)
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BANGBROS
BANGBROS@BANGBROZZZZZZZ·
@MifflinTrades Apologies if this sounds stupid, but ESU6 or even ESM6 never hit 7694 in my charts?? Am I going crazy or is it actually just 7648.75 as ATHs for ES futures. How is 7694.75 the highs for you on the 5-30 week?
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