@brianbobc @peterrhague I guess instead of saying “EV doesn’t apply”, I should have said “EV isn’t the best framework for a rational person to decide their choice here”
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Mike
823 posts
@MikeB2030 @peterrhague The expected value still applies. It's the basis of all sports betting and many other risk decisions. The issue is that the marginal utility of money rapidly falls. The 50k has high value. This is why paying people more can even lead to them working less.
investopedia.com/ask/answers/07…
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Brits are not stupid, enumerate, nor especially risk averse. This answer is a rational response to being poor.
Everyone thinking that a naive EV calculation makes them smarter than the public isn’t tracking the quickly diminishing marginal utility of money.
YouGov@YouGov
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? £50,000: 73% 50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21%
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@dial_stacy69461 @ChristianHeiens 1) We spend far, far more money on entitlements for old and poor people than we do on the military
2) Very few seniors would go hungry if we cut 1% from their benefits
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@ChristianHeiens Sol old people should be hungry and not have medical care so others can have paid leave? How about we slash the military budget, cut the salaries and never-ending benefits for politicians, give people leave, and let old people eat and go to the doctor?
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Fun fact: You can pay for 20 days of guaranteed paid family leave for every new parent in the entire country if you cut just a little over 1% of Social Security and Medicare.
Bernie Sanders@BernieSanders
Guaranteed paid annual leave days: 🇺🇸0 🇪🇪20 🇵🇱20 🇦🇺20 🇧🇪20 🇩🇪20 🇬🇷20 🇮🇪20 🇮🇹20 🇳🇱20 🇨🇭20 🇨🇿20 🇳🇴21 🇪🇸22 🇵🇹22 🇫🇮25 🇦🇹25 🇩🇰25 🇫🇷25 🇸🇪25 🇱🇺26 🇬🇧28 🇧🇷30 It is long past time for the United States to join the rest of the world and guarantee paid annual leave and vacation days.
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@AndrewWoodman Expected value doesn’t really apply here though because the coin flip is a one-time all-or-nothing venture
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This is a staggering finding. Does probability get taught anymore?
YouGov@YouGov
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? £50,000: 73% 50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21%
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF I’m not the one saying “whatabout this bad behavior from Democrats” when Trump has done far worse. Again, you don’t actually care about the bad behavior itself - you care about weaponizing it against your political opponents. So yeah, I think I do have the moral high ground here
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Are you really this insufferable or is it just act?
Claim the moral high ground and then carp ad nauseum because they don't disdain someone you do, even having the temerity to question their faith?
Seems... hypocritical.
Politics isn't religion. They're on parallel roads.
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Donald Trump fucked this country up forever
The “when we win we’re just better but when we lose you cheated” mentality from the right will plague us for a generation
MR. OBVIOUS@ObviousRises
BREAKING: The Odyssey is FAKING ticket sales by buying up theaters/seats (Fraud) to make the movie look like a success (already $400 million in the hole) moviegoers are reporting having to take terrible seats (because full) but when they show up the theaters are mostly empty.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF x.com/paradiddlysqua…
You literally said it yourself. “Why should I prioritize behavior and ethics above policy?”
You complain about bad behavior from democrats, and yet you’ve outright stated that you’ll perfectly tolerate it from republicans. This is why you’re a hypocrite
Hunter Paris@paradiddlysquat
@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Why should I prioritize behavior and ethics above policy? That's absolutely moronic. While I'd prefer my elected officials to be angelic, I'm older than the age of three and understand they'll have flaws. Good grief, man; he's the President, not my priest.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF And values and ethics are obviously not secondary to politics, but you have some warped world view in which the two are necessarily related.
In a perfect world, perhaps, but we don't live there. You seem to pretend we do, which is a big reason you need to grow up.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Democrats being bad doesn’t mean you’re forced to support Trump, you know. But since you do, and since you’ve admitted that values & ethics are secondary to politics… yeah I’m gonna impugn the fuck out of your supposed Christian values. You’re a terrible witness to your faith
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Like I said earlier, grow up.
And you dare to impugn my Christian values. I guess I should have voted for the person that tried to build her campaign almost solely on abortion rights? Super Christian values, that.
In my walk, I can accept people despite their flaws.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Who said anything about the “right” to say anything? It’s a free country, say what you want.
It’s about credibility. Since you clearly have a very large tolerance for bad behavior from Trump because of his politics, you have no credibility to criticize others on that subject.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Just scroll up. Would I prefer it if there were some choir boy in the White House? Yep.
Is it mature to accept that an effective leader might not be said choir boy? Yep.
Is it weirdly authoritarian to say I forsake any right to mention civility due to that? You know the answer.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF He uses hurty words? That’s it?
He lies. He cheats. He steals. He misleads. He foments hatred and division. He accepts bribes.
Maybe reconsider how your Christian values (or lack thereof) are reflected in your politics. Because right now, it’s looking very superficial.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Good on ya.
Maybe you could stop deliberately misrepresenting my comment just because it fits your agenda to do so, then. Honesty is part of having good character.
Your main point is still absurd. I like a candidate. He uses hurty words. I can *never* mention civility. Dumb.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF x.com/MikeB2030/stat…
Like I said, some of us actually think character matters
Mike@MikeB2030
@paradiddlysquat @VolsAF I’m currently politically homeless. Proud Romney voter in ‘12, left the Republican Party in disgust after 2016, and now vote for whoever seems least insane at any given moment. Republicans aren’t winning that contest right now
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF That's not what I said and you know it. Stop being disingenuous.
I said I needn't prioritize behavior ABOVE policy, and when it comes to people leading the country, that's not at all inappropriate.
But please tell me you voted for Romney. He was a Boy Scout. Character, right?
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Well thanks for exactly proving my point. Some of us actually think character matters, and that our leaders should be held to higher standard.
So again, I don’t want to hear you lecturing about bad behavior. You’ve just admitted you don’t actually care about it.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Why should I prioritize behavior and ethics above policy? That's absolutely moronic.
While I'd prefer my elected officials to be angelic, I'm older than the age of three and understand they'll have flaws.
Good grief, man; he's the President, not my priest.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF “Liking policies doesn’t mean endorsing behavior”
No, but it tells you where your priorities are. If you support Trump, you clearly don’t prioritize behavior and ethics above policy. Why should you hold others to a different standard?
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF No, it isn't.
Your mode of thinking is unfortunately emblematic of folks on the left end of the spectrum. Ironically spouting off about diversity, but if anyone happens to deviate from the accepted norm, they're excommunicated.
Liking policies doesn't mean endorsing behavior.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF That’s the bargain you make when you support someone like Trump. If you’re willing to overlook his (extremely) bad behavior because of his policies, it’s quite disingenuous to turn around and act like other people’s bad behavior is a problem.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF But that's what you're doing, as if supporting someone whose policies you agree with somehow precludes any ability to call people out for their bad behavior.
You're acting like I've said, "Hey, I love Trump's bad behavior," which I've never done.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF No, now you’re creating a strawman. Look back at the thread - I’ve only ever said you have no room to call out bad behavior on the other side if you’re a Trump supporter, because Trump has done all of those things you say are bad and then some.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF What you've done is, hypothetically speaking, to say that because I said Rice is a talented player and I'm glad the Ravens are winning, I somehow love domestic violence and I should never call out anything inappropriate said to me.
It's imbecilic.
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You say you support Trump because of his policies, fine. That’s like someone saying they like Ray Rice because of his football. But it would then be hypocritical for that person to criticize another player for personal issues, just like it’s hypocritical for a Trump supporter to criticize the other side for bad behavior.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Under those circumstances, in that scenario, yes.
This is a different scenario, however, so you're presenting a false equivalence. I never said Trump is awesome because he attacks people. So, it isn't at all hypocritical for me to point out the gross lack of civility some show.
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Let’s say I was a Ravens fan, and specifically a Ray Rice fan. And then after he beat up his fiancée, let’s imagine the NHL & Ravens do nothing, and I continue to be a vocal Ravens/Ray Rice fan. And then when, say, the Tyreek Hill child abuse allegations come out, I’m very vocal about how terrible Hill is and how could the Bills/NHL ever tolerate an abuser. Would someone be right to then call me out for hypocrisy?
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF And you're completely blind to the fact that you're applying the characteristics of a part to the whole.
Let's just say you like the Baltimore Ravens. After Ray Rice beat up his fiancee. Would I then be justified to say you love domestic abuse and dismiss your opinions entirely?
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF You won’t find me cheerleading for either side, I’ve already told you they’re both bad. But you’re completely blind to the fact that Trump has done everything you hated when it was Biden doing it, but worse than Biden ever dreamed of doing.
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Okay, guess you're going to make me say that I can't respect your opinion because you're A-okay with gramps taking weird showers au naturale with his daughter. Totally cool with that, so let me just discount your opinion completely. 'Kay?
Maybe you're seeing how dumb this is?
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF There’s no way, I mean absolutely no way, you’re acting sanctimonious about nepotism, corruption, and persecution of political enemies? Have you seriously not seen anything this administration’s done in the past year and a half?
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF I support his policies.
I guess, from your logic, you support nepotism, corrupt arrangements with foreign governments, persecuting and imprisoning your political enemies, and so on.
How very totalitar... I mean, how very inclusive and Democrat of you.
Have a nice day.
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@paradiddlysquat @Reggie71bc @VolsAF If you don’t like the guilt by association, you could simply choose not to support a lying, cheating, swindling egomaniac who doesn’t hesitate to throw out personal insults
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@MikeB2030 @Reggie71bc @VolsAF Do you have any idea how ridiculous this line of thinking is? Have you even the slightest bit of awareness about the concept of guilt by association and how it demonstrates rather flawed, immature thinking?
Grow up.
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Here’s the thing.
I’m fully aware that the Odyssey is fictional
But here’s the other thing
Unless you are taking liberties with it, you cast it as the author would.
Would Homer have cast it like Nolan did?
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