
Michael
5K posts

Michael
@MikeMacroM
The world is full of opinions. Mine just happens to be one of them. Occasional musings about life, Tech & the world of macro. History is always an analogue.



you don't have trading problems, you have personal problems that reflect in your trading. snap out of it.



Banks are becoming landlords And nobody is batting an eyelid.


I left NotebookLM a few months ago to solve a bigger problem in learning. Today, as the first step, we are launching @WonderingApp for early access. It's Duolingo for anything — turning any topic into a guided path with bite-size visual lessons that can fit into your busy schedule. But you don't sacrifice depth/effectiveness for convenience: Total Control: You decide how deep you want to go, how difficult the material should be, and how personalized the experience feels. Active Learning: We provide the tools you need to practice, test your understanding, and actually apply what you’ve learned. Long-term Mastery: It’s built to help you truly remember and master any subject, not just skim the surface.




Again, it has only just begun... After reaching an extreme, money sloshing around in passive and low-vol systematic is going to begin looking for a new home. Once those marginal flows shift, look out. The pendulum has just started to shift.

The low volatility market regime ended in 2020. The rising volatility market regime will accelerate in years ahead. Many of the strategies built on low volatility regime will shrink/unwind (i.e., low vol targeting, mkt neutral) Market structure to change dramatically.



Great framing by @michaeljmcnair To anyone who thinks Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, etc. are just about those places or just about oil - you are missing the bigger picture. This is all about Power positioning in Cold War 2.0 between US and China. Focusing on strengthening respective Pillars of Power, exposing adversary vulnerabilities and improving leverage over key chokepoints. I do think the 'pacifist' veil has largely gone away at this point to anyone paying attention. The disguise was necessary while China was exploiting the old System (enabled by those in Power in the US/West) - ensuring those in Power positions in particular remained in a greed and power-induced sleep. But now they've built up enough collective power to feel comfortable challenging the US directly (see excerpt in tweet below). China has been in an essentially overt war-time economy since COVID, building up key resource stocks (oil, food, copper, etc.) in preparation for this challenge. The go/no-go window around Taiwan was always in this ~2026-2030 timeframe simply due to Demographics - China faces a cliff - and to a lesser extent Xi's age. The Trump Admin's actions (with Tariffs as the opening catalyst) are a 180 relative to Policies over the last ~25 years (hence why many are so mad - they profited off of this China rise) and are directly focused at re-asserting the US' Pillars of Power - ideally in an asymmetric way to drive deterrence (hence why the Technology Race is The Race). There are mutually beneficial non-zero-sum deals to be made - the 'Peaceful Re-Balancing' as I call it (below) - but each party wants the greatest amount of leverage going into those negotiations - hence the deep focus on strengthening respective Pillars of Power (details in tweet below). Tariffs ended the old System a year+ ago, as I wrote extensively about at the time. There is no going back to it. The New System framework has begun to emerge - you can see the foundations. But we are in a period of relative 'chaos' - as we unleash pent up energy that has been building for decades. And redirect energy and attention on foundational Security essentials (i.e., Critical Product Productive Capacity). This is non-linear change; all of the linearly optimized structures over the last ~80 years are going away. In the interim, multipolarity will reign unless/until asymmetric Pillars of Power are established. Out of the disorder will eventually come Order - which will be 'created' by those who have the strongest Pillars of Power. The underlying point of many of my pieces over the last year was to wake people up to this foundational reality. Common sense pieces to help make people aware so they can at least make informed decisions. Rather than rash superficial or symptoms-focused ones often clouded by biases. National Security + Sovereignty sit at the foundation of everything - enabling your ability to choose. Without it, little else matters.







