Michael

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Michael

Michael

@MikeMacroM

The world is full of opinions. Mine just happens to be one of them. Occasional musings about life, Tech & the world of macro. History is always an analogue.

London Katılım Haziran 2015
424 Takip Edilen584 Takipçiler
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
"The world is going to be more digital tomorrow, than it is today" @RaoulGMI Every generation has companies that represent the prevailing technologies / network effects at the time. There's typically a 20-30 year time lag between when these cohorts are born and when these companies become some of the most valuable companies in the world. The internet has sped this up to about ~15-20 years (Tiktok as an example) For Baby Boomers & Gen X, this was IBM, GE, Ford and McDonalds, Microsoft, Intel, AT&T (Enterprise tech, mass consumerism, personal computing etc) - ~25-30 year lag vs when boomers + gen x were born For Milennials, this was Apple, Google, Meta, Netflix -merge of hardware (e.g smartphones), software (e.g app store) and the internet - ~20-25 year lag What is this going to be for Gen Z and Gen Alpha? Mobile/technology-first, creator economy, decentralisation, AI-native etc. My working hypothesis is the likes of Coinbase, Tesla, Robinhood will be some of the most dominant / valuable companies in the world within the next 10-20 years. Crypto will form the backbone / infrastructure of this system (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana as the rails etc). This will only seek to accelerate because of network adoption / effects and the speed at which the internet can scale products and platforms. This projects out to early ~2030s for this to fully play out. Very few people realise this, but we're still so so early. Greatest macro opportunity of our lifetime
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Derivatives Don
Derivatives Don@DerivativesDon·
If people can’t sell their oil, they need to 1) Sell their USTs 2) Sell their gold 3) Don’t have any money to buy Bessent’s bonds (hence auction results) It’s not about inflation It’s also not about growth re-rating higher. ITS ABOUT LIQUIDITY Which is also why swap spreads have been such a large part of the rate move. And it’s also why the curve has not steepened. It’s also why this is not the end of the dollar - it is the insurance policy serving the exact purpose it is supposed to in an emergency. Right now is the time to file a claim. Soon enough they will be buying more insurance. You buy bonds if you are trying to minimize portfolio losses, you sell bonds when you need liquidity. Imagine if they needed to liquidate their private equity or credit investments instead.
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
Dolla wants 101.50 imo...
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
Personally think this move in rates is way overdone (whatever that means)...SONIA pricing 75 bps of hikes by year end...bias is to fade this move tomorrow... same with eur/usd
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Madison
Madison@MadsTheTrader·
This has always been my biggest issue. One day I will be more open about the things I’ve had to endure in my personal life, whilst also becoming a trader. Sometimes I’m very hard on myself because I should be so much further ahead.. but then I look at my life over the last decade and I’m like oh yeah, I probably couldn’t get much further whilst living in hell. Spent the last 2 years rebuilding my life whilst simultaneously living in fear. It’s been a wild decade that stripped me of my late teens and majority of my 20s.
oscay@oscaytrades

you don't have trading problems, you have personal problems that reflect in your trading. snap out of it.

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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
@TMTLongShort Seriously one of my favourite tweeters on here. haha love the occassional spurts about Brazil / LATAM too lool
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
Dubai real estate is going to be meaningfully higher in a year from now. The reason the GCC are on-sides is because at the end of all this you’re going to see the mother of all datacenter buildouts. This was necessary to remove the primary impediment to that.
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
@0xOldBoyDza I specficially remember the tweet too. Has stuck with me ever since
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Michael retweetledi
Sakshi
Sakshi@Sakshi50038·
12 RARE LIFE LESSONS BY JAPANESE MONK: 1. The quieter you become, the more you hear what truly matters. 2. Chase nothing - what's meant for you moves toward stillness. 3. A clear mind is stronger than a busy one. 4. Happiness is found in discipline, not desire. 5. The one who masters patience, masters life. 7. You suffer because you argue with what is. 8. The less you own, the lighter your heart becomes. 9. Anger is like hot coal it burns only the hand that holds it. 10. Routine done with awareness becomes meditation. 11. True strength is being kind when it's hardest. 12. The ego shouts, but wisdom whispers. When you stop rushing, life starts revealing itsel
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
This is an exceptional app btw. Had a little play around this morning… def one of the best AI products I’ve played with over the last few years
Cheng-Wei Hu@HcwXd

I left NotebookLM a few months ago to solve a bigger problem in learning. Today, as the first step, we are launching @WonderingApp for early access. It's Duolingo for anything — turning any topic into a guided path with bite-size visual lessons that can fit into your busy schedule. But you don't sacrifice depth/effectiveness for convenience: Total Control: You decide how deep you want to go, how difficult the material should be, and how personalized the experience feels. Active Learning: We provide the tools you need to practice, test your understanding, and actually apply what you’ve learned. Long-term Mastery: It’s built to help you truly remember and master any subject, not just skim the surface.

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Cheng-Wei Hu
Cheng-Wei Hu@HcwXd·
I left NotebookLM a few months ago to solve a bigger problem in learning. Today, as the first step, we are launching @WonderingApp for early access. It's Duolingo for anything — turning any topic into a guided path with bite-size visual lessons that can fit into your busy schedule. But you don't sacrifice depth/effectiveness for convenience: Total Control: You decide how deep you want to go, how difficult the material should be, and how personalized the experience feels. Active Learning: We provide the tools you need to practice, test your understanding, and actually apply what you’ve learned. Long-term Mastery: It’s built to help you truly remember and master any subject, not just skim the surface.
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£
£@0xOldBoyDza·
50% of councils across the UK will become bankrupt by 2028. In order to keep operating they will have to sell of assets within their council districts to foreign entities. Most councils are in deep debt There are 296 districts across the UK
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Anas Alhajji
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji·
I know several Canadians who do not fit in the driver seat of this car! 3 Chinese EV companies prepping to enter Canadian market
Anas Alhajji tweet media
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
@Polymarket What @TonyNashNerd has been saying for the longest while with respect to the risk averse nature of corporate IT
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
BREAKING: Amazon reportedly holds mandatory meeting after “vibe coded” changes trigger major outages.
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
Lol hear what you’re saying, but I do think there’s value in understanding the context behind the PA, even if it’s just from an intellectual standpoint. Saying that, at the end of the day, all that matters is your pnl at the end of the trading day. So again, I hear what you’re saying
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Macro “KING LEEROY” Tactical 👑
Friend of mine who literally has no idea what’s going on or the details of this Strait shutdown situation, has probably made the most PA of any sophisticated retail traders I’ve spoken to. And he gives zero fucks about the whys, what’s or when’s Lesson in there
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
@_alfiekerswell Hey Alfie, how did you build this view? Happy to shoot you a DM too. I've been wanting to build something similar
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AquaVis
AquaVis@AquaVisX·
Again, it has only just begun... After reaching an extreme, money sloshing around in passive and low-vol systematic is going to begin looking for a new home. Once those marginal flows shift, look out. The pendulum has just started to shift.
AquaVis@AquaVisX

The low volatility market regime ended in 2020. The rising volatility market regime will accelerate in years ahead. Many of the strategies built on low volatility regime will shrink/unwind (i.e., low vol targeting, mkt neutral) Market structure to change dramatically.

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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
Thoughts are with people affected by all of this. Saying that, and just speaking from an objective standpoint, this last year has been a great time to really spend understanding macro and how the various different dominoes fall... An example: Oil (note who here has largest country risk to significant changes in the oil price) and the transmission to > Inflation > Policy/Growth...We're currently pricing in HIKES across SONIA, EURIBOR.. The question to then ask, is how this oil induced shock changes the incentives of the different agents within the system (NATO, China, India) and really taking time to understand how it's being used as a weapon for Economic statecraft by the US. European elites already have enough issues to contend with. You want to posture with China? Fine, we'll invade Iran and plunge the whole global economy into a recession. Yeah we'll get hurt, but nowhere near as much as you will. Align with us or face the unimaginable wrath of a populus that's already massively frustrated with you. Note btw, Oil is dominanted in $.... Everything is downstream of Geopolitics 🫡
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Michael
Michael@MikeMacroM·
Comments such as "Just buy the dip because we're going to be higher in 10 years, because it's always been that way" fundamentally misunderstand who the owners of assets are and how global capital flows actually work. Over the last 30ish years, countries have used their surplus dollars to buy US assets (equities, treasuries real estate etc)...we're seeing first hand this dynamic changing. What was the past, will not necessarily be the future...this has impacts on the margin and is not insignificant (see tariff tantrum on Jan - Apr '25)
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AquaVis
AquaVis@AquaVisX·
Published a quick note looking at @michaeljmcnair Wake Up Call paired with a Pillars of Power overlay PoP: US & China - Important Perspective on Cold War 2.0 Link below
AquaVis@AquaVisX

Great framing by @michaeljmcnair To anyone who thinks Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, etc. are just about those places or just about oil - you are missing the bigger picture. This is all about Power positioning in Cold War 2.0 between US and China. Focusing on strengthening respective Pillars of Power, exposing adversary vulnerabilities and improving leverage over key chokepoints. I do think the 'pacifist' veil has largely gone away at this point to anyone paying attention. The disguise was necessary while China was exploiting the old System (enabled by those in Power in the US/West) - ensuring those in Power positions in particular remained in a greed and power-induced sleep. But now they've built up enough collective power to feel comfortable challenging the US directly (see excerpt in tweet below). China has been in an essentially overt war-time economy since COVID, building up key resource stocks (oil, food, copper, etc.) in preparation for this challenge. The go/no-go window around Taiwan was always in this ~2026-2030 timeframe simply due to Demographics - China faces a cliff - and to a lesser extent Xi's age. The Trump Admin's actions (with Tariffs as the opening catalyst) are a 180 relative to Policies over the last ~25 years (hence why many are so mad - they profited off of this China rise) and are directly focused at re-asserting the US' Pillars of Power - ideally in an asymmetric way to drive deterrence (hence why the Technology Race is The Race). There are mutually beneficial non-zero-sum deals to be made - the 'Peaceful Re-Balancing' as I call it (below) - but each party wants the greatest amount of leverage going into those negotiations - hence the deep focus on strengthening respective Pillars of Power (details in tweet below). Tariffs ended the old System a year+ ago, as I wrote extensively about at the time. There is no going back to it. The New System framework has begun to emerge - you can see the foundations. But we are in a period of relative 'chaos' - as we unleash pent up energy that has been building for decades. And redirect energy and attention on foundational Security essentials (i.e., Critical Product Productive Capacity). This is non-linear change; all of the linearly optimized structures over the last ~80 years are going away. In the interim, multipolarity will reign unless/until asymmetric Pillars of Power are established. Out of the disorder will eventually come Order - which will be 'created' by those who have the strongest Pillars of Power. The underlying point of many of my pieces over the last year was to wake people up to this foundational reality. Common sense pieces to help make people aware so they can at least make informed decisions. Rather than rash superficial or symptoms-focused ones often clouded by biases. National Security + Sovereignty sit at the foundation of everything - enabling your ability to choose. Without it, little else matters.

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