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“The market rewards those who live to trade another day.”
Focus on process, survive, then find profits.
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Quarantine Mike
7.6K posts
Quarantine Mike
@Mikephicc
Prop trader, blues guitarist, top-end tea drinker & global macro enthusiast.
Gondor, Middle Earth Katılım Kasım 2013
468 Takip Edilen510 Takipçiler
Quarantine Mike retweetledi
Soybeans are entering a historically favorable seasonal window. From TDY #66 to 90, returns have tended to skew higher, reflecting a consistent cyclical tailwind during this period. Seasonality alone is not a guarantee, but it does highlight a window where the odds have often leaned positive.
Read Full Analysis: sentimentrader.com/pricing
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows, assuming the ceasefire actually holds.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/…
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
Iran can remain irrational longer the Donald Trump (and the global economy) can stay solvent.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
It is a very hard situation to handle for Bessent.
1. The manufacturing push by Trump needs exports to be competitive, meaning a weaker dollar to given for manufacturing in US to be competitive on the world stage.
-> Weaker dollar = Stronger incentives to sell.
2. The disregard for allies in this war led to collocations to be weakened and the Us threatening leaving NATO is leading partners to reconsider the US-debt as something they want on the balance sheet.
-> Weaker alliances = Treasuries being sold
3. As the US needs to refinance 30% of $30 trillion USD over the next 2 years, they are caught.
As allies and Asia sell USD and Treasuries, yields spike higher, making it very expensive to refinance the debt.
-> Higher refinance rate = Inflate USD to repay debt.
4. Add to it a potentially weakening of the petro-dollar, credit stress and a potential recession...
This war will cost way way more than almost everyone sees, the Oil is the tip of the iceberg.
THE SHORT BEAR@TheShortBear
Got to wonder if Iran shifts tactic after yesterday. If they can't get NATO/Asia to put pressure to stop this war they might end up helping them. In the long term Iran is in the weird position to be able to offer safe passage through a deal with ex-US, essentially inflicting pain to the US through the Petro dollar and through cutting them off from the Oil trade. The world leaders have been mocked, belittled, disrespected, pressured, forced... over the past months. European leaders are looking for a diplomatic solution but Trump pushes forward without discussing it. The world won't want to wait for Trump to fully blow this up, so they'll likely cut a deal to get the oil flowing. Getting oil from the US as an exporter, to the contrary of what Trump said is not even possible right now. Iran could be repositioning as they get the chance to bypass the US and focuses on decreasing the US power both from a regional perspective and from a US-petrodollar perspective. Hence perhaps Oil ex-US tops or gets flowing while US loses what is harder to quantify in the short to mid term while perhaps markets slowly recover. Just a thought as the original tactic by Iran was likely to make trump bend through markets and oil prices which has not worked so far.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
El crédito es el problema, no el petróleo a 100. Este será un problema en unos meses.
Financial Times@FT
US Treasury calls in regulators for talks on private credit risks ft.trib.al/VPrNZZC
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
BREAKING: Private credit giant Blue Owl Capital was struck with a "mammoth" $5.4 billion increase in redemption requests in Q1 2026, per FT.
Details include:
1. Withdrawal requests at Blue Owl's tech-lending fund have surged to 40.7% per cent of the fund’s $3B value
2. Concerns have intensified about the health of the private credit market
3. Requests to exit the the firm’s marquee $20B direct-lending fund surged toto 21.9% of the fund’s value
4. Blue Owl said it has limited withdrawals to 5 per cent at both vehicles
Private credit markets are under pressure.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
Crudo por encima de $100. VIX por encima de 28.
El mercado no quiere rebotar — los rebalanceos se acabaron, el rebote del Collar de JPM se acabó.
Rebote frágil. Gato muerto. 🐱
Los problemas son más severos de lo que el mercado está descontando. El mercado de crédito está roto y el consumo a estos niveles de precios se va a resentir. Esto no es ruido — es estructura.
Y lo más preocupante: la correlación Oro — SPX. Se mueven juntos.
Bonos no te ayudan. Metales no te ayudan. Todo se correlaciona antes o después. Siempre.
Solo hay una clase de activo que funciona cuando todo lo demás falla.
La volatilidad.
The only asset class is Volatility.
Aprendes o mueres. 🎯
#Volatility #SPX #VIX #CreditMarkets #Gold #Macro #SpreadGreg
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@Josevizner No ha pedido perdón... lo que ha hecho es justificar que si sus clientes solicitan vehículos de inversión relacionados con la órbita Woke entonces él les abre mercado.
De hecho se ha molestado cuando el entrevistador le ha preguntado si Blackrock se veía como parte del problema.
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Larry Fink, de Blackrock, “pidendo perdón” en la Fox después de haber desempeñado un papel clave en el wokismo. El dinero se mueve al lado del poder. Se habla en la entrevista sobre cómo fue un experimento fallido.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
this is excellent
>GitLab founder diagnosed with rare cancer (osteosarcoma)
>standard care works but cancer comes back later
>medical team says there's not much else to do
>"It became my own job to keep myself alive. Nobody else was going to do it for me at this point"
>starts researching, assembles his own medical team, uses AI for deep research
>“I’ll talk to anyone, I’ll go anywhere, and I can be there anytime" to collect information
>does as many diagnostic tests as he can find as often as he can (maximal diagnostics)
>develops his own therapeutic ladder with repurposed drugs, personalized medicine, etc
>Sid’s cancer currently in remission
Sebastian Caliri@SebastianCaliri
The full deck on Sid’s cancer approach is here: sytse.com/cancer/ Worth a read. Raw data for download is also available and linked in the deck
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
Your visual cortex burns 44% of your brain's energy budget. Turning off the lights in the shower is the fastest way to slash that load to near zero.
Your brain is 2% of your body weight but burns 20% of your total energy. Visual processing alone eats almost half of that. Every photon hitting your retina triggers a cascade of neural signaling that demands oxygen, glucose, and ATP at rates higher than almost any other cognitive function.
When you kill the lights, you're removing the single largest energy load on your cortex. That freed-up metabolic capacity gets reallocated.
This is where it gets interesting. A 2022 study from the Laureate Institute for Brain Research measured what happens when you strip sensory input from anxious patients. High-frequency heart rate variability, the gold standard marker of parasympathetic activation, increased significantly compared to controls. Blood pressure dropped. Breathing rate fell. The nervous system shifted from sympathetic dominance to parasympathetic mode within minutes.
The warm water adds a second mechanism. Core body temperature rises during the shower. When you step out, temperature drops rapidly. That cooling signal triggers melatonin production and primes the circadian system for sleep. Layer darkness on top: no photons suppressing melatonin through the retinal ganglion cells, no blue-light signaling to the suprachiasmatic nucleus that it's still daytime.
The shower is doing three things simultaneously. Reducing cortical energy demand by eliminating visual input. Activating the parasympathetic nervous system through sensory reduction. Triggering thermoregulatory sleep signaling through the heat-then-cool cycle.
A $0 float tank that takes 10 minutes.
GRITCULT@GRITCULT
Take a shower in the dark.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
Looks like we've hit an inflection point where higher oil prices no longer push Fed policy expectations higher. Lower equity prices is moderating inflation fears by highlighting recession fears.
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Greatly explained.
This is the main reason Japan is willing to go short in the oil futures markets as an extreme measure to protect itself from the inflation armageddon that is about to crash the global economy.
Roberto Rios@peruvian_bull
Japan's doom loop explained
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
🚨 WOW —Tumors literally liquefied by sound waves. No scalpel. No chemo. No radiation. None of those horrible side effects.
This is histotripsy: focused ultrasound blasts destroy cancer cells mechanically in minutes, sparing healthy tissue completely.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
We have been surpassed:
AI written output exceeded human written output in 2025
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
$APPL spent nothing on AI while the rest fought and spent hundreds of billions for models that are now obsolete.
It was the only one to not do so.
Now it’s going to let all models run on Siri, opening it up to billions of users and probably will charge 30% through the Apple Store on top.
Big win.
Mark Gurman@markgurman
BREAKING: Apple is planning to open up Siri to run any AI service via their App Store apps as part of iOS 27, dropping ChatGPT as the exclusive outside partner in Apple Intelligence and Siri. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
Repetition rewires your brain.
Repeat what you want to become.
This is neuroplasticity.
Reads with Ravi@readswithravi
Your brain can learn anything if you practice it daily.
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Every side is doubling down now.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
They’ve spammed so much fake news trying to push energy prices down that the market’s just numb now. Keep going, nobody’s buying it anymore. The real prices will show up anyway. Powerful? Maybe. But Smart? Not even close. Burned that fake news card way too early.
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Quarantine Mike retweetledi
At the start of the Iran war, I made a video that said oil is not like silver. This was a real supply-side disruption that is fundamentally driven. And that the oil experts that never panic or freak out, were in total panic and freaking out.
That remains even more true today. While generalists and flat price remains shockingly complacent.
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