Miranda Priebe

Restrainers will like calls for burdensharing and stabilizing ties with Russia and China but have questions about implications for military posture in the IndoPacific and concerns about the focus on allies’ domestic politics.

The Pentagon released its new National Defense Strategy last month. What might those calling for greater restraint in U.S. foreign policy think about this document? In this new video, @jekavanagh and I break it down. Bottom line: It's a mixed picture. defensepriorities.org/events/assessi…

More on this report here: x.com/MirandaPriebe/…

Trying to decode the new national security strategy? Three competing strategic outlooks influenced its contents. Chapter 2 of our @RANDCorporation report explains them. rand.org/pubs/research_…

6/ Bottom line: *How* the U.S. retrenches matters. Smart implementation could bolster NATO self-reliance. Missteps could fracture European unity & future security ties with the US.

5/ Policies accompanying retrenchment matter too: ⚠️ Reduced intel-sharing if US pursues détente with Russia that sidelines European security ⚠️Sustaining high tariffs makes it harder to sustain support for higher defense spending

1/ How might NATO allies react if the US retrenches from Europe? Our new RAND report looks at how three alternative grand strategies—and the policies they suggest—could affect European defense spending, security cooperation, and ties with Washington. 🧵 rand.org/pubs/research_…

@securitydpod You can also find a summary of the research here rand.org/pubs/research_…

Listeners can read the full RAND report here. rand.org/pubs/research_…

New Episode! What can the Cold War tell us about how U.S. allies might respond to American retrenchment? @MirandaPriebe of @RANDCorporation joined the show to share her insights. Check it out! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how… open.spotify.com/episode/1sjthe…

There are competing claims about how reducing U.S. military involvement abroad would affect the behavior of U.S. rivals and allies. To better understand the trade-offs, we examined four historical cases of limited retrenchment. 🧵

4/ For our full analysis of U.S. peacetime retrenchment from West Germany, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea in the 60s and 70s, see rand.org/t/RRA739-8

3/ What does this mean for the US today? If the US takes a similar approach to the past, limited retrenchment may promote many US goals, but could increase proliferation risks. More dramatic changes in US strategy could, however, produce different outcomes.

1/ How might US allies react if the US pulls back troops or downgrades security commitments? Our new report draws lessons from historical cases of limited U.S. retrenchment. 🧵 rand.org/t/RBA739-3

For the full analysis, see our article in @IntSecHarvard direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…

A US grand strategy of restraint involves using diplomacy to settle differences, reducing forward presence, downgrading/ending commitments, and raising the bar for the use of force. Our new @RANDCorporation brief outlines competing visions of restraint: rand.org/pubs/research_…

If you've heard about @RANDCorporation's Graduate Student Summer Associate Program and are thinking about applying, I recommend you read testimonials from past participants – many of whom work at RAND today!” Looking forward to receiving your applications: rand.org/summerassociat…