Missouri Mapper

I have uploaded 2024 Missouri election data for Amendment 2, Amendment 3 (pictured below), Amendment 5, Amendment 6, Amendment 7, and Proposition A as a custom dataset to the Dave's Redistricting Application. #list::Published-Datasets" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">davesredistricting.org/maps#list::Pub…

Finally, thanks again to @josh_metcalf for helping with this project.

As always, please let me know if you find any errors. Also, I'll repeat the caveat that DRA precincts don't align with Missouri's 2024 precincts exactly, so there will be some small transposition errors. However, the results on DRA should be pretty close to reality.

I have uploaded 2024 Missouri election data for Amendment 2, Amendment 3 (pictured below), Amendment 5, Amendment 6, Amendment 7, and Proposition A as a custom dataset to the Dave's Redistricting Application. #list::Published-Datasets" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">davesredistricting.org/maps#list::Pub…

@AKfromKCMO I wanted to include every town where an incumbent is from, or at least what they listed as their campaign mailing address. The rest were just lifted from an old wikipedia map, I didn't question the virtue of which municipalities that map picked or did not.

@Missouri_Mapper Not the point but I love the randomness of the municipalities displayed on that map. Raymore?

There has been a lot of speculation in the news that Missouri may redraw its congressional map, from a 6R-2D split, to 7R-1D map. Based on the reporting I've seen, this is my best guess for what a 7-1 map may look like - but there are many possible ways a 7-1 map could be drawn.

@auautumntumn MO1: D+58.3 MO2: R+4.4 MO3: R+12.3 MO4: R+3.1 MO5: D+3.1 MO6: R+7.2 MO7: R+31.8 MO8: R+27.2

@Missouri_Mapper 2016 senate results?

@oshacklehackel He would have won MO5 on this map by 3%, but the remaining districts (besides MO1) were more GOP than Blunt's statewide margin of victory. Besides Auditor 2018, Kander had the best Democratic performance in the KCMO area of any Democrat in the age of Trump.

@Missouri_Mapper Did Kander win more than 1?

@314politics @missouriscout A hypothetical mid-decade redraw would almost certainly use the 2020 census data. Any population loss in MO1 will have implications for 2030 redistricting, though. MO1 would likely have to absorb blue-leaning suburbs currently in MO2, making the latter district a little more GOP

@Missouri_Mapper @missouriscout What do you think about the 30,000 plus population loss in MO-1 since 2020? It has to be made up somewhere?

Update: Seems there is a small error in vote totals (~50 votes) for St. Louis County and Jefferson County caused by DRA not factoring in changing census block boundaries between 2020 and 2024. I will correct this tomorrow and post again when the fixed datasets are published.

Credit to @josh_metcalf for helping me put together these datasets. Also, if you find anything that looks like an error, please let me know by responding to this thread or direct messaging me.

I have uploaded 2024 Missouri election data for President, Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General, and Congress to the Dave's Redistricting Application: #list::Published-Datasets" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">davesredistricting.org/maps#list::Pub…

@missouriscout It is important to emphasize that there are many possible ways a 7-1 map could be drawn. All that can be said for certain is that if Missouri does redraw its congressional map, there will be many different opinions from state legislators about where the lines should go.

@missouriscout Third, that the remaining districts should be kept as Republican as possible to minimize the risk of a "dummymander." Finally, that the map have districts as compact as possible. This map scores better than the current map on the Reock and Polsby-Popper measures of compactness.

@TadeuszMrozek2 @greggiroux davesredistricting.org/join/5a80621a-…

@greggiroux DRA link?

This was a 7R-1D map the Missouri House voted down in January 2022.

@MadLibHatter Two corrections: Lafayette County, Missouri has a single Democratic precinct (admittedly one that does not show up on DRA because its only the size of a single census block). Mississippi County, Missouri does not have any Democratic precincts in 2024.

Every US county where all precincts voted for the same candidate in 2024

@gavinbena St. Louis County (and a few other counties, but mostly St. Louis County) had a number of precincts smaller than census blocks and that seems to have tripped up DRA whenever I tried to upload the data in the past, but I finally figured out how to get around it.

@Missouri_Mapper much appreciated, finally put together all the precinct data a while back but never got around to even attempting this