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Nameless /.^
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Nameless /.^
@MisterNameless
A man who fears suffering is already suffering from what he fears.
Market Katılım Nisan 2010
4.7K Takip Edilen7.7K Takipçiler
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JUST IN: $ASTEROID enters the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

CoinGecko@coingecko
$ASTEROID pumps 763% today, reaching a $155M market cap after Elon Musk agreed to make it SpaceX’s mascot. The token is currently ranked #213 by market cap.
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WHAT IF TOPBLAST SZN IS BACK

Phil@PhilOnChain
well I had to topblast let's see if this is still a winning strategy UNC MODE
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“O People of the Scripture, do not go to excess in your religion nor say about Allah except the truth.
The Messiah, Jesus son of Mary, was only a messenger of Allah, His word which He directed to Mary, and a spirit from Him.
So believe in Allah and His messengers, and do not say ‘Three.’ Desist—it is better for you.
Indeed, Allah is only One God. Exalted is He above having a son.”
[Quran 4:171]
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The people in charge don't want you to know this, but Muslims love Jesus.
Islam reveres Him as a major prophet and messenger of the Lord, believes He performed miracles, and states that He will return to Earth to defeat the Antichrist. That's why Donald Trump's painting depicting himself as the Son of God offended the president of Iran. It was an attack on his religion as well as Christianity.
Today's Morning Note newsletter covers Masoud Pezeshkian's condemnation of Trump's “desecration of Jesus,” the Iran War's gutting effects on America's housing market, Colombia's plan to murder Pablo Escobar's hippopotami, and more. Read below.
watchtcn.co/4stA1RL
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Nameless /.^ retweetledi
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For some reason I'm struggling mentally recently.
Usually I can control my thoughts and generally be happy and enjoy things.
Lately I'm just in a rut. I haven't been enjoying working out. I haven't wanted to do anything during the day or even find enjoyable things to do. I just want to do nothing. Daily tasks seem like they drag on forever and my brain wants nothing to do with them.
I don't even know why I'm posting this. Maybe saying it out loud will help me snap out of it.
Sometimes your brain just hits a wall and you feel like there's no way out of it; even though you know there is. You know what I mean?
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If the pragmatists are the dominant faction in Iran,
which I think they are,
then this whole Lebanon inclusion/exclusion ambiguity as part of the ceasefire is a very straight forward analysis.
The pragmatists do not need Lebanon in the ceasefire to protect Hezbollah. It's the opposite.
They need Hezbollah locked in attrition with Israel.
Your dominant strategy as a pragmatist, is about ending the war, getting sanctions relief, unfreezing assets, reopening oil exports, and rebuilding.
Hezbollah is not an asset to protect in that equation.
Hezbollah is a liability to manage and eventually a card to play.
So what was Iran actually doing when they insisted Lebanon be included?
Simple.
If Lebanon is in the ceasefire text, Iran walks into Saturday's talks with a chip it can offer to give up in exchange for something it actually cares about,
like sanctions relief or enrichment rights or asset unfreezing or reconstruction compensation.
You do not put something in an agreement because you plan to die on that hill.
You put it in because you plan to trade it.
The pragmatists wanted Lebanon on the table so they could take it off the table at a price.
This also explains why Iran's response to the massive Israeli strikes on Lebanon has been loud but calibrated.
Oil tankers were "suspended" from passing through Hormuz. Everything was said except the fact that Iran was withdrawing from the ceasefire.
Every Iranian statement has left the door open.
That is not the behavior of a state that has been genuinely blindsided and is about to escalate.
That is the behavior of a faction that expected something like this, is publicly outraged for optics purposes, and is now waiting to see what price the outrage fetches.
The pragmatists need this war to end quickly, and they need it to end with a deal they can present as a victory for the Iranian state, not for the resistance axis.
Hezbollah getting hit hard in Lebanon actually serves the pragmatist agenda in a perverse way.
If Hezbollah is degraded by Israel during the ceasefire period, the pragmatists do not have to do the politically costly work of sidelining it themselves.
Israel does it for them.
Then when the pragmatists sit down in Pakistan, Hezbollah is further "neutralized", the "resistance" card is worth less, and the negotiation becomes about state-to-state terms rather than proxy preservation/Israeli security.
Iran is outraged publicly while privately being relieved that the biggest obstacle to a normalization-track deal is being removed by someone else.
And the pragmatists are letting it happen because the outcome serves their interests even though it looks like a humiliation in the short term.
Netanyahu's dominant strategy, as I described it earlier, is to provoke a response that would collapse the ceasefire. He wants Iran to escalate so he could say the deal is dead and resume operations.
To do that, he should be targeting civilians. Not Hezbollah.
Which he is.
But if the pragmatists are in charge, they will not play into that. They will absorb the Lebanon strikes, issue furious statements, maybe slow-walk Hormuz reopening by a few days, and then show up for talks anyway.
Because showing up with a functioning ceasefire is a stronger position than walking away to defend a proxy they were already planning to downgrade.
Netanyahu's high risk play assumes he is dealing with IRGC maximalists who will react emotionally to the provocation.
But if he is actually dealing with pragmatists who are running on cold calculus, his escalation does not collapse the ceasefire.
It just kills Lebanese civilians, weakens Israel more, and hands the pragmatists more leverage in negotiations while Israel commits more war crimes.
Lastly.
Lebanon's Salam said "no one negotiates on behalf of Lebanon except the Lebanese state"
Officials told authorities that they "have not been informed" of Lebanon being included in the ceasefire.
Salam is telling everyone, Iran included, that Lebanon is not a card to be played at someone else's table. He is rejecting the idea that Pakistan or Iran can announce a ceasefire covering Lebanon without Lebanon's government being a party to the negotiation.
He is also rejecting the idea that Iran speaks for Lebanon through Hezbollah.
This serves multiple actors simultaneously while further damaging Israel.
It serves Salam because it establishes the Lebanese state, not Hezbollah, as the legitimate negotiating party for Lebanon's future. It clearly asserts that the axis is broken and Lebanon operates independently to Iran.
It also serves the Iranian pragmatists perfectly. If Lebanon's own prime minister is saying Iran does not negotiate for Lebanon, then the pragmatists have cover to let Lebanon go as a negotiating chip without looking like they abandoned Hezbollah.
They can say: we included Lebanon in the ceasefire, we tried, but Lebanon's own government insists on handling its affairs independently.
Respecting sovereignty.
The pragmatists get to shed the proxy liability while wrapping it in the language of Lebanese self-determination.
Once again this entire sequence of events hurts Israel.
Salam is not rejecting a ceasefire in Lebanon.
He is rejecting the idea that his country's ceasefire should be a subset of Iran's ceasefire.
He wants his own deal for the state because the Shia axis is dead in the water, and he is asserting it as such.
That is a infinitely harder position for Netanyahu to manage than an Iranian demand, because it comes from a legitimate head of government asking for direct negotiations, outside the Axis, that Israel has so far refused to engage with, acting like a rabid dog on its border.
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