Mizer

Straight to our first target $HYPE Well, looks like I wasn't that off. First move done as we predicted, now as I said price needs to react to the current zone. Just to recap, from here the price move depends on two variables: first, what $BTC does, and second as expected, $HYPE bid. Personally I could see a bounce back to $41 and then continuation lower, or a direct drop from here. For now I don’t see anything that makes me think this is just a “simple correction of the HYPE uptrend”. I see it more as a cooldown or a local top ($44). As always we’ll stay alert for any signals that invalidate this thesis and suggest the uptrend is still intact, but for now, I think we’re heading lower.

Doing $HYPE as per request. The first thing I have to say is that I don’t know if this analysis is really going to be useful for anyone, but since quite a lot of people have asked me for it I’ve decided to share my humble view on our beloved $HYPE First of all I want to emphasize that with this one I’m kind of lost. It’s true that I often like to share my ideas on certain coins, the one I share the most is usually $BTC because I consider it the most important due to the fact that it’s the crypto flagship asset by excellence and because we know it usually drags everything with it. I’m used to sharing my analysis or vision, and when I do I’m usually quite “sure” in the sense of what I think is going to happen, and being sure doesn’t guarantee that my analysis or prediction is going to be correct. At the end of the day I’m wrong like everyone else, but it is true that even if that vision I have can be incorrect, I’m usually quite sure about it when I share it. In the case of $HYPE right now, it’s not like that. The truth is that my vision on this coin at the moment is very confusing and I think it’s very difficult to give a prediction on it. As you know, the ideas I usually share tend to be LTF, but in this case I want to make the distinction. I think $HYPE is one of the projects not only the most promising on crypto, but also the most solid and real already on a current level. If we talk HTF, I’m sure that HYPE hasn’t reached its top and not even close yet, if it keeps performing at the current level and it keeps being on top like now I see it going much higher than where it is currently. Now, on a LTF level is where it gets more complicated for me. Getting into it we can see how $HYPE has eaten through all the resistances since $33 without any problem. The move upwards is being brutal, but I think now it is starting to reach more serious resistances. I see it very difficult that it breaks $45 in the very short term, but in case it did break it, I see it going to ATH from there. If it didn’t break it soon, as I think will happen, the most immediate move would be a retest of 40-38$. Depending on its reaction in this zone then, we would look at what could be next. It’s fundamental to understand that $HYPE can grow a lot even LTF, but like everything, it is certainly conditioned by $BTC. Therefore, if once in that 40-38$ zone $BTC was stable, chopping or even going up, that is the case in which we would study what the next direction of $HYPE is. But if $BTC started its move towards 59-63k from the current point, I think $HYPE would not hold $38. Therefore the path that I expect would be the following: 42$ 🠮 40/38$ 🠮 35 vs 44 (depending on $BTC in the first place, and on the reaction of $HYPE in the second place taking into account that $BTC wasn’t nuking). This is more or less what I expect, but I want to insist that I don’t trust my instinct much in this case despite it being what I think will happen. It’s undeniable that $HYPE right now behaves differently than the rest of cryptos (within generally following the market trend) due to its very strong fundamentals. Therefore it is a factor that really influences its price, and that personally I find hard to weigh in the current market situation. That's why even despite having heavier resistances, if the hype keeps being constant all of them will be broken inevitably, TA won't do anything there. Hyped to see how this one plays out.

I'm getting squeezed - $BTC Out of jokes, this pump has done damage to my shorts. Honestly didn’t think we’d keep pushing much higher, but the man of the moment did it again. Saylor bought +$1B, holding price and indoucing spot bid continuation once markets opened after the weekend. Crypto has shown strentgh today, but I don’t trust this move. I’m still holding my shorts. Even if there’s a chance we squeeze a bit more, in my opinion it shouldn’t have much time extension. From a $BTC PA perspective, the black line we drew acted as support again, and from there price moved to the first long target if you were on the long side. So far we haven’t seen another ugly rejection at $74k, and considering this pump has been more spot driven than perps driven, I don’t see anything that screams an imminent dump, so like I said, it could still grind a bit higher. That said, I still have conviction we go lower this week, so for now I’m holding my shorts. Underwater and drowning, embrace the red.

$BTC update: As predicted, we are back to weekend levels. I mentioned on my last post that I didn't trust the move up after 71k. We still even squeezed a bit higher of 74k like we mentioned too, but it didn't last much. What's next? This is exactly the scenario bulls didn’t want to see. It’s still too early for bears to call it a win, but given how things have played out, this is close to a “perfect” bear continuation setup. Like I said, it’s still too soon to say the upside move is fully over, we need to see how price action develops over the next hours, but as things stand right now this could be the first sign that the $76k zone was the local top. From where we are now, personally I’m expecting one of these two things: - we drop straight from here to lower levels. - or what I think is more likely, we get a mechanical bounce into 72.5k–73k, trap more longs there, and then fully develop the move to the downside. What would invalidate this is a break above $76k and a clean hold. For now, that’s how I see it, but as always, we’ll have to adapt to whatever conditions the market throws at us. I wish you all good luck 🫡

I'm getting squeezed - $BTC Out of jokes, this pump has done damage to my shorts. Honestly didn’t think we’d keep pushing much higher, but the man of the moment did it again. Saylor bought +$1B, holding price and indoucing spot bid continuation once markets opened after the weekend. Crypto has shown strentgh today, but I don’t trust this move. I’m still holding my shorts. Even if there’s a chance we squeeze a bit more, in my opinion it shouldn’t have much time extension. From a $BTC PA perspective, the black line we drew acted as support again, and from there price moved to the first long target if you were on the long side. So far we haven’t seen another ugly rejection at $74k, and considering this pump has been more spot driven than perps driven, I don’t see anything that screams an imminent dump, so like I said, it could still grind a bit higher. That said, I still have conviction we go lower this week, so for now I’m holding my shorts. Underwater and drowning, embrace the red.

$BTC update: As we can see price followed one of the paths we mapped out, and it looks like we’re now in motion for a drop. $BTC tapped the 74k zone for a second time and got hard rejected again. Like we discussed, if that happened without a bullish reaction back up, it was a clear sign we weren’t ready for upside continuation. $BTC is back at 70k and for now, it’s holding this level… for now. After two clean rejections at 74k, I think the odds are we see 6Xk soon. It’s true that on the LTF when we pushed into 74k, the strength of the impulse made a run to 78k a real possibility but at this point, that feels a lot less likely. Lower comes first imo. During this week Saylor has held the price on many occasions, we’ll see if he’s able to keep doing it. On top of that the projection of the U.S. and Iran war doesn’t have any forecast of an imminent ending. I also think oil $CL is going to go back to $110-120, and all of this together makes me think we’re going down from here. So we'll keep following the purple road imo.

$BTC update: I’m back to a long bias. Managed to add to my longs yesterday at 68.9k. After the 66k sweep, $BTC bounced and we’re now back in the 70k zone. This is a key area for BTC to decide whether we can break out of the current range and push for higher targets. In my view, if $BTC holds 70k there’s a strong chance we get a squeeze to 74k (easy target), and depending on the reaction there, potentially even 78k (harder target, but totally doable). Based on how price behaves at those levels, we’ll get a clearer read on the next scenarios for LTF price action continuation. That said, if we reject 74k I’d expect a clear retest of 68k but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. For now, as said, I’m positioned long (I’m still holding some shorts, but I have more long exposure than short) and I think we’ll go for those targets as long as like I said, $BTC holds 70k.

Might have shorted the worst possible asset to short out there, didn't expect it to pump that much. Actually nothing terrible as I've been more long than short with my $BTC long until this morning, but yeah, horrible pic from my side. Hyperliquid.

Shorted $3M $ETH earlier today. Adding to shorts here, as I shared yesterday I think we are due to a move down to 66k. Feels like the major thing holding $BTC is Saylor. Once he chills with the bidding we’ll start dipping. That should be soon in my opinion. Still holding my (in profit) $BTC long but I’m -2x net short exposed here expecting a dip soon.

Reduced my $BTC long at current levels. Still holding some for the case we pump to 74-76k, but not liking what I’m seeing now. Back to net short exposed (around -0.85x net expo). If we pump to 72-76k I’ll look to fully exit my $BTC long, if we dump from here I’ll prob TP my shorts.

Added to $HYPE short @ 31.9 Ddidn't like that Saylor was the one pushing $BTC price yesterday. I was long positioned at the time of the quoted post, I'm closer to a neutral spot now (0.3x net lev short). Will update when I make any major changes, for now just slightly short and chill.

$BTC update: I’m back to a long bias. Managed to add to my longs yesterday at 68.9k. After the 66k sweep, $BTC bounced and we’re now back in the 70k zone. This is a key area for BTC to decide whether we can break out of the current range and push for higher targets. In my view, if $BTC holds 70k there’s a strong chance we get a squeeze to 74k (easy target), and depending on the reaction there, potentially even 78k (harder target, but totally doable). Based on how price behaves at those levels, we’ll get a clearer read on the next scenarios for LTF price action continuation. That said, if we reject 74k I’d expect a clear retest of 68k but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. For now, as said, I’m positioned long (I’m still holding some shorts, but I have more long exposure than short) and I think we’ll go for those targets as long as like I said, $BTC holds 70k.