MarketRhythm | Timing & Structure

Weekly Update: Intraday timing models for $SPX M15 tracked within projected structures across all 5 sessions this week. March 2: Sharp advance post-open, followed by late selling amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions. Volatility elevated, but structure held. March 3: Early sharp drop to fresh intraday low, then resilient dip buying triggered a steady recovery. Closed well above morning trough despite fragile sentiment. March 4: Early rebound into late morning, midday consolidation, and afternoon pullback. Market sensitive to Asian equities and ongoing geopolitics. March 5: Opened lower with up to -1.4% intraday drop, paring to -0.56% close. Oil price surge and Middle East tensions (Strait of Hormuz disruptions) weighed on risk sentiment. March 6: Equities under pressure from weak jobs report (declining payrolls, higher unemployment) and oil above $90 on escalating regional risks. Structure tracked amid growth/inflation concerns. Overall, models captured key impulses, dips, recoveries, and volatility drivers like energy markets and headlines. Week ended near lower expected range—watch for dip buying resilience or further breakdowns next week. Follow for more timing & structure updates. $SPX $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX #NASDAQ100 $NQ $NVDA

leaning bullish with a ratio spread is about positioning for controlled upside with defined structure you benefit from gradual move higher and time decay while keeping entry cost low or even credit it works best when price grinds up or stays within a range risk comes if move accelerates too fast through your short strikes

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗜 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝘆 ( $SPX -𝟭%) - 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 •$VIX 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝘆 → hedges are being unwound into weakness, not added. That’s positioning shifting, not fear rising. •𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 → geopolitical/inflation risk getting priced out, not escalating. •𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱, 𝘀𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗿, 𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 → crowded inflation hedge trades unwinding. •𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝟳𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 → risk appetite still intact beneath the surface. •𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 / 𝗿𝗲𝗯𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗹𝘆 → downside isn’t getting follow-through; supply is being absorbed. •𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻–𝗨𝗦 𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 → narrative moving from worst-case to “lets be reasonable.”

@BoringBiz_ Banks are already testing AI for pitchbooks and financial models with reports showing tools can draft slides and build LBO frameworks in minutes which reduces prep time but still requires human validation

Investment banking MDs telling Claude to spin out a 119 page deck and LBO model for the pitch next morning

@market_sleuth He’s been consistently warning about an AI bubble and declining returns on invested capital in big tech which many dismissed earlier

I follow & subscribe to Michael Burry on Substack. Funny how all the bashing of him ceased about 3 weeks ago. I’m certain it wasn’t due to the recent price action in the S&P 500. 💯☺️

@IncomeSharks Mine was gone before it started discipline really keeps it alive

Still perfect somehow

@BradDillerson Yes, will post it tomorrow

@Mktrhythms Nice! Will you have the March 20 chart up tomorrow?

March 19 | $SPX M15 Update Tracking the timing model. Early upside faded as projected, with price trending lower into midday and extending weakness through the early afternoon. The late-session move pushed higher into the close. Was that late move expected? Follow for updates. $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX

@unusual_whales Reports indicate a federal panel approved a commemorative gold coin design featuring president trump which is unusual as current norms avoid depicting living presidents on currency and this reflects a symbolic shift rather than a monetary one

A federal panel approved a commemorative gold coin design featuring President Trump, endorsing the rare step of putting a living, sitting president on American money, per WSJ

Fedex moved sharply after earnings driven by stronger than expected cost cuts and margin expansion which improved profitability outlook despite mixed revenue trends. The move is happening with limited retail attention as focus remains on ai names which keeps positioning less crowded and allows steady institutional accumulation

FedEx stock went up $32 AH on earnings today & hardly any talk of it. There’s stocks like that which get little fanfare because they’re not in the Ai space. It’s been a great hold for a long long long time. 💯

@JohnLoc18 Nice to see you locking in profits and paying yourself that reflects discipline and control over execution realized gains matter more than open PnL taking money off the table reinforces consistency and capital preservation over time

🤷‍♂️ $SPY money never disappoint.

@Polymarket Rising oil prices at this pace will pressure inflation expectations and likely force a repricing of rate hike trajectories. Brent crude above $150 would test the resolve of central banks to maintain their current policy stance.

BREAKING: Saudi oil officials predict $180 a barrel as a "base case" if middle east disruptions persist until late April.

@mikealfred Structure above $18 is thin and lacks significant resistance until $25 where previous buyers are likely to be tested. Break above this level could lead to a retest of the $30-32 zone where option sellers have previously been active.

The next time CIFR breaks $18, I’m confident it’s headed almost immediately to $36-54. It’s science.

@Lavader_ Lack of understanding of basic economic principles is concerning when it comes from educators. This ignorance can have far-reaching implications for students and the broader economic discussion.

The fact that a PROFESSOR can't comprehend the VERY BASIC concept of supply and demand.

@TheProfInvestor LUNR's weekly chart is setting up for a potential breakout with a tight range building over the past few weeks. A push above $25 could see momentum build quickly with $30 a key target.

If you asked for my best setup right now: Hands down: $LUNR The weekly chart is coiled And a move to $30 will be a treat. I will come back to this post. Best of luck if you play this.

@cryptobullying Financial systems are built on trust and liquidity rather than actual wealth. The value of money is a social construct that can be influenced by macro drivers and institutional flows. Money velocity and circulation are key components of economic growth.

The truth about money nobody talks about

@RonFilipkowski Price recovery has been slow to materialize since then. Support levels have been repeatedly tested and failed to hold. Structural damage from the decline still evident in market positioning. Lack of conviction in the rebound attempt is a concern.

In March 2022 this was 97.54 a share.

@disclosetv Rising oil prices would pressure inflation expectations and boost yields, potentially shifting the rate hike narrative. This could lead to a stronger US dollar and increased volatility in commodity-sensitive currencies.

JUST IN - Saudi oil officials fear oil prices could rise above $180 a barrel — WSJ

@SawyerMerritt Scaling electric truck production could disrupt logistics costs and reshape the transportation sector. Lower operating expenses may boost demand for Tesla's semi-truck. Fleet operators will be key to driving adoption. Price competitiveness is a major advantage.

WSJ: Tesla Finally Has Its First Semi-Truck and It’s Already a Hit With Truckers. "Truckers who drove it in pilot tests say they loved features including a centered driving position, faster charging and longer range for about $100,000 less than other battery-electric trucks. Angel Rodriguez, a 56-year-old truck driver for Hight Logistics in Long Beach, Calif., recently swapped out a 13-gear diesel truck for a Tesla Semi, which is automatic, for a one-month pilot test. “It’s just easier on your body. It’s less stressful because you’re not really having to engage the clutch and the stick shift.” Big F Transport employs five mechanics to service more than 40 diesel-powered rigs and a fleet of trailer chassis in Wilmington, Calif. “If we go all EV we will only need one [mechanic] to service chassis,” said Geovanny Melendez, the carrier’s VP of operations, who went to see the Semi earlier this month at a ride-and-drive event near the Port of Long Beach. Jennie Abarca, co-founder and CEO of King Fio Trucking in Long Beach, Calif., once worked as a truck dispatcher and her husband is a truck driver, so she knows all too well the toll a diesel engine takes on people’s lungs and hearing. She eventually wants to swap out King Fio’s 27 diesel trucks to create an all-electric fleet. King Fio already has 11 battery-electric trucks from Volvo and Nikola. But the company limits those trucks to shorter trips to and from local ports because they only have a range of about 225 miles. The Semi, by contrast, can travel 500 miles on a single charge, according to Tesla. For King Fio that means two or three round-trips a day from Long Beach to warehouses in the nearby Inland Empire or a single round-trip to Las Vegas. She has 20 Semis on order. “The Teslas change everything,” Abarca said. “It opens up a whole different type of delivery that I can make.”

@JohnLoc18 Recurrence of similar headlines may indicate a lack of new information driving markets. Media cycles can influence sentiment without changing underlying structure. Repetition of news stories often fails to impact price action.

This is the 2nd time I see this headline news

@StockOptions888 Structural momentum is building with this breakout confirmation. A clean setup often attracts early participation from institutional players. If this trade gets front-run it could accelerate quickly. Key will be whether market makers can keep up with demand at the open.

🚨 I’M GOING HEAVY TOMORROW 🚨 Breakout confirmed. Setup is clean. RT and I’ll send you this ONCE in a lifetime setup. THIS CAN GO 2300%+ like $EPD Be ready by 9:25 AM EST. I’m calling it live.

@tradexyz Updated discovery bounds across major indices and commodities may influence options pricing and volatility surface. This could lead to adjustments in dealer hedging and gamma exposure. Market participants should reassess their positioning and liquidity needs.

Discovery Bounds have been updated for SP500, XYZ100, GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, and AAPL, in addition to WTIOIL (CL) and BRENTOIL. For more details, refer to our documentation here: docs.trade.xyz/perp-mechanics…

@JackPosobiec Resource nationalism and domestic policy are limiting US access to strategic metals like copper. This supply chain vulnerability could have long-term implications for US industrial and tech sectors. Copper is a key component in renewable energy and electronics.

There are massive copper deposits in Alaska that the United States refuses to touch