The Market's Compass

#BTC Bitcoin We will see how it closes, but that is thus far a bona fide breakout!

Price held support at the Kijun and Cloud, MACD is rising in positive territory, and SMI has turned up. One caution: the Sweet Sixteen oscillator rolled over at a lower high. Key to the base-building thesis: hold the rising trendline and 9,810.

Excerpt from today's Market's Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study...Week #239 Not Yet, Almost... The Daily Chart of the CCi30 shows a few constructive technical features despite remaining stuck in a nearly 3-month trading range.

Friday’s break of the Lower Warning Line and weak close hint that consolidation may be giving way to distribution. Momentum (SMI, MACD) continues to weaken. A bounce is possible, but a lasting reversal appears unlikely. Read more in Today's Substack post substack.com

A subtle but important shift may be underway in the SPX. Prices fell back below the Lower Parallel of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork last week and failed to reclaim it.

#SPX A week and a half ago I posted a Daily Chart of the SPX that suggested that there was still an underlying bid in the SPX as witnessed by the long lower shadows on the daily candles (yellow circles). Friday’s selloff and close near the lows, something changed (red circle).

Key support: 179.18 (Nov weekly close). A break there would signal a larger correction developing. Last week’s kick in the face in DM Country ETFs does not look like the end of the beating. Read more at my Substack Blog... substack.com

URTH closed last week down -3.07% at 184.96. Despite the downdraft, the series of higher highs and higher lows from the April 2025 low remains intact. But the DM Total ETF Ranking (blue line) dropped sharply and the 13-week MA turned lower from a lower high.

@HackermanAce Hero at two.

@Mkts_Compass Haha thanks sir. You'll have to post dog photos!

Its a big weekend coming up. Its muh Birthday.

Hero's second Birthday this weekend!

The CCi30 Index has been trapped in a tight 3-week range since rebounding from 9,305. Minor positive: price cleared the Tenkan/Kijun confluence on Wednesday. But momentum remains mixed: • MACD rising, still below zero • 8-Day Stochastic turning higher • Breadth neutral The key level: 12,180. A breakout above it would confirm consolidation — not distribution.

Read more at: @themarketscompass" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@themarketscom…

#BTC is ready for the first expansion phase since 2017 w.r.t. money supply M1. BTC / M1 broke above a 6-year resistance, printed a new ATH, and is now bouncing after a second successful retest at 🔵 The setup looks strikingly similar to 2016. 2021 was consolidation...

#SPX Long lower shadows on Tuesday’s and Thursday’s Candles (yellow circles) suggest there is still an underlying bid so far but both the short-term Stochastic Momentum Index and the SPX Daily Momentum / Breadth Index Oscillator do not suggest that the index is out of the woods!

Despite the -12.9% price downdraft from last Thursday's highs the EWY stil holds the pole position on a relative strenth basis with a relative strength ratio of 28.05% since the start of the year vs. the EEM

#SouthKorea #EWY Most of yesterday’s heavily reported news on the price down draft in the EWY failed to mention how the EWY had been an extraordinary outperformer on a relative basis since the start of the year vs, the EEM.

#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.

#BTC Bitcoin overtook trend line resistance, the Median Line of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork and now price resistance at 72,330. Next stop is the Upper Parallel. Thank You Blood Moon. Check out @GertvanLagen and his long-term thoughts post early this AM. Feet don't fail me now!

#CRAK Not a surprise, after two weeks of backing and filling and consolidation the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF spiked to a new all-time today.