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Mo Hossain
64.8K posts
Mo Hossain
@MoHossain
CIO, MP @Ennovance | Dad, husband, friend 24/7 | Allocating capital with a soft spot for big-picture thinking | Curious learner & reflection sharer—no advice!
Katılım Mart 2009
397 Takip Edilen6.3K Takipçiler
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
Claims steady (207k / 1.818mn), but the real story is Philly Fed at 26.7. New orders + shipments firm, employment weaker, and both prices paid/received at their highest since Aug ’25. Manufacturing showing heat where the inflation‑watchers least want it. 📰US jobless claims fall last week as layoffs remain low abcnews.com/Business/wireS…
QME
Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. bit.ly/4tgDJ2g
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Claims steady (207k / 1.818mn), but the real story is Philly Fed at 26.7. New orders + shipments firm, employment weaker, and both prices paid/received at their highest since Aug ’25. Manufacturing showing heat where the inflation‑watchers least want it.
📰US jobless claims fall last week as layoffs remain low
abcnews.com/Business/wireS…
Philadelphia Fed@philadelphiafed
Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow overall, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. bit.ly/4tgDJ2g
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If the U.S. startup engine is accelerating—and value vs. growth applications are splitting apart as AI lowers barriers to entrepreneurship—aren’t we watching an innovation‑led expansion take shape?
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
The U.S. remains the world’s most dynamic economy. New business formation is surging—up significantly from last year, signaling strong entrepreneurial momentum.
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Oops! is 2025 growth now just 2.0%, with baseline GDP ~½pp below potential and downside paths ¾–1pp under?
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla
GOLDMAN: “.. we now expect the drag on growth from higher oil prices to roughly offset the boost to growth from the 2025 fiscal bill.” #OBBBA
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𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐮𝐳 𝐫𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫, and the banks are effectively backing that view: 𝐉𝐏𝐌, 𝐂𝐢𝐭𝐢, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐬‑𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐢𝐭𝐞, 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝟗%, 𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧, though early stress is emerging among lower‑income households. The macro picture is resilient for now; 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑐𝑘.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
JPMorgan Chase reported higher profit and revenue for the first quarter, with Wall Street operations booming and the U.S. economy remaining resilient on.wsj.com/3OfqFLx
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Corporate #buybacks are rolling over. BofA’s desk flow peaked near $6B in mid‑’24 and is now –23% YoY even as S&P buybacks still print +6% YoY. Financials ($7.9B) and Tech ($6.2B) are doing the heavy lifting. The forward liquidity impulse is quietly tightening.
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭’𝐬 𝐅𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐩𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐈𝐭𝐬 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭 Dividends trigger annual taxes; buybacks don’t. That’s why buyback‑tilted strategies have compounded faster for top earners for 30 years. But the AI arms race is tightening the valve: hyperscaler capex has climbed from ~20% of OCF in 2012 to nearly 100% today, and buybacks have rolled over. What happens when the market’s most tax‑efficient return engine runs into an AI capex wall? #equity #investor #fund
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Mo Hossain retweetledi
AI adoption is accelerating, but employment data still shows minimal displacement. What’s rising faster than job loss is the fear of it.
The AI Jobs Scare Meets 250 Years of Data | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
aei.org/economics/the-…
The Economist@TheEconomist
Even as the threat from artificial intelligence looms, tech jobs are not going away. Instead they are spreading through the whole economy. Register for free to discover why economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Inflation expectations are rising, long‑run surveys just spiked, core PCE is running firm, and home sales dipped again.
If the market is looking for a clean rate‑cut signal, it’s not coming from the data.
#Fed #Inflation
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𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐓𝐚𝐱‑𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐆𝐨 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭
The “restaurant inflation supercycle” is officially yesterday’s entrée. FAFH and limited service have cooled to ~3–4%, two‑year comps cut in half, and the FAH–FAFH spread still favors eating at home. CPI–PPI spread rolling over. And tax‑refund season is telling: lower‑income households are the only cohort boosting restaurant spend post‑refunds, while higher‑income households are pulling back. Margins now depend on execution, not inflation.
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
🇺🇸𝐏𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐰𝐡𝐨? 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟗 𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲. Full‑service dining just stole the lead back from fast food by a hair, and total restaurant sales are running above the old trend line. 𝐈𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧, 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝.
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. @NYFedResearch In today's post, the authors draw on the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations to shed light on whether workers have access to generative AI tools, how these tools affect their daily productivity, and how much workers value the training needed to use them effectively. nyfed.org/4swrBZS
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
AI adoption is accelerating, but employment data still shows minimal displacement. What’s rising faster than job loss is the fear of it. The AI Jobs Scare Meets 250 Years of Data | American Enterprise Institute - AEI aei.org/economics/the-…
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@WSJ 🆙
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐮𝐳 𝐫𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐫, and the banks are effectively backing that view: 𝐉𝐏𝐌, 𝐂𝐢𝐭𝐢, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐬‑𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐢𝐭𝐞, 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝟗%, 𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧, though early stress is emerging among lower‑income households. The macro picture is resilient for now; 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑐𝑘.
QME
JPMorgan Chase reported higher profit and revenue for the first quarter, with Wall Street operations booming and the U.S. economy remaining resilient on.wsj.com/3OfqFLx
English
Mo Hossain retweetledi
𝐌&𝐀 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐬
Corporate America’s deal machine keeps humming: $305B in March M&A, $54B in bond funding. Food & Bev, Health Care, Tech lead the charge. Credit outperforming equity vol., risk appetite intact even as geopolitics flare.
#IG #credit #mergerarb
Mo Hossain@MoHossain
𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐌&𝐀 𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐚 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝‑𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐛 Active managers are getting squeezed from every angle: volatility, fees, and Vanguard breathing down their necks. The result is a global land‑grab. Q1 dealflow is already running hot, the Janus Henderson brawl was just the trailer, and nearly $25bn in AM M&A shows the new playbook: diversify, scale, survive. ht: FT #Fund #investor
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Mo Hossain retweetledi
Fire‑sale pricing is rewriting the highest‑and‑best‑use map: office towers are becoming farms, apartments, even industrial pads. At 90% off, anything pencils.
#CBD #Realestate #investments
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
A fire sale has office buildings across America going for more than 90% off. 🔗 Read more: on.wsj.com/4vmdskD
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