KT
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@garyblack00 Lol this is so dumb
"The company I bought into for EVs and autonomy will now expand and have a hand in exponential space exploration along with everything I initially bought in for. I should sell it." - Nobody
🤡🤡
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For $TSLA bulls excited by a potential TSLA/SpaceX merger: If TSLA with a 100x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap buys SpaceX with a 200x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap, the dilution math suggests a 20-25% reduction in TSLA value.
Math:
- TSLA issues $1.5T new equity for $1.5T SpaceX equity.
- TSLA EBITDA of $15B/year combines with SpaceX EBITDA of $7.5B/year.
- Combined entity now has $3.0T Equity and $22.5B EBITDA. TSLA has $30B net cash which is insignificant to this analysis.
- Because stocks post-merger generally trade at the lowest common multiple and SpaceX future cash flows are highly uncertain, post merger TSLA/SpaceX should trade at a 100x EV/EBITDA so $2.25T. That’s a reduction of $750 billion in value (100 point multiple change x $7.5B EBITDA purchased = $750B) = 25% reduction.
- The 25% value reduction is commonly referred to as a “conglomerate discount” since stocks trading separately on their own multiples and growth prospects almost always trade at higher multiples vs two companies merged together where the lowest common multiple generally prevails.
- In my 30 years as a professional investor I have rarely seen post-merger companies trade at “blended multiples” based on the underlying companies’ respective multiples and growth prospects.
- Financial history is littered with examples where unrelated companies with different multiples and growth prospects were merged together and the lowest common multiple won out (e.g. RJR/Nabisco, GE, ITT, Gulf & Western, Time Warner, Sara Lee, Fortune Brands, several others).
- On the other hand, if SpaceX buys TSLA that could result in short term gains for TSLA shareholders but expect TSLA investors who bought TSLA for its upside in EVs, autonomy, and robots and who now own SpaceX stock to sell their shares post merger.
- There can only be one multiple for a stock. With conglomerates, the least common multiple generally prevails. The notable exception to this rule has been Berkshire, because of the Warren Buffett premium that attaches to the company purchased.
In short, a TSLA/SpaceX merger is a solution looking for a problem. It’s dilutive for $TSLA shareholders and so unlikely to happen.
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
A Tesla and SpaceX merger feels inevitable at this point.
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All indicators are officially aligned showing the S&P 500 has temporarily bottomed, & an aggressive rebound rally is incoming…
Since Liberation Day, every red $SPY candle which had 110M+ in volume marked a bottom.
Today’s candle pushed 123M.
Many will be left behind on this squeeze.
Don’t miss out…

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Giveback was in LA giving back to so many people 💚In collaboration with @McDonalds , Marcus Olin, Ohno and more incredible partners, we were able to bless so many lives. 🍟💑🫳💚 $GBACK
We’re going to change the world as we know it. 🌍
A Giveback movement in every city. 💚
This is still day 1. We haven’t even scratched the surface of the impact we’re about to make with this amazing team, community, partners, and supporters.
#impact #McDonalds #LosAngeles #Crypto
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GIVEBACK crew will be in MacArthur Park today spreading the movement across Los Angeles. 💚
Join us, creator Marcus Olin, McDonald’s, and more as we connect, share food, and highlight ways to support our neighbors in need. ❤️🔥
We will be livestreaming! 📽️
@McDonalds @gbackcoin $GBACK
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💚 VP of Goodwill Detroit in action 💚
Inspired by the Giveback community, the Vice President of Goodwill Detroit stepped up to give back. showing what it means to lead with purpose and impact. 🙌 @GoodwillDet @McDonalds
This is the $GBACK movement in motion. 👁️💚👁️
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