Mount Mytas

I just read a lot about the new AP x Swatch collab. I just made a leveraged bet on Swatch stocks because I learned from the great @ChrisCamillo , that if here might be a social arbitrage, you have to take a chance. Its very risky, but the Risk/Reward seems good to me. Also, I don’t think investors see the hype I see on 𝕏, even before the watch being already out. We will get more information tomorrow, May 13th about how exactly it will look like. Swiss media is writing, it could be also a pocket watch 🤣 Imagine all the hype for a pocket watch. My leveraged bet would be instantly liquidated. Swiss people think this collab won’t move the needle at all. Only 35% of the people voted for it to be relevant (see screenshot from Finanz und Wirtschaft newspaper). Thatswhy I decided to take a trade. I think people are wrong. Meanwhile, I see 𝕏 making threads about how to instant flip the watches for 5-10x and how to stay in line 2 days before release… I witnessed the Moonswatch hype, ppl lined up in front of the stores. Not for one day. For weeks. Although they said the watches will not be limited and will be available online later. After its first year, Swatch sold 1 Million watches in 2023, the Moonswatch sales lead to an increase in revenue of Swatch (not whole group) of 63%. Revenue overall grew „only“ 6%. There were some ripple effects which lead to an increase in sales also to Omega watches (which is also owned by the Swatch group). Note: Audemars Piguet is not part of the Swatch Group. Revenue of the Swatch group came mostly from Omega sales (2.2B of 6.3B in total). Swatch watches are a smaller part of total revenue with 0.4B. From 2021 to 2023 revenue grew from 0.2B to 0.6B. Omegas sales grew from 2.2B to 2.6B in the same period. The luxury segment of the Swatch group is suffering, mainly because of the strong swiss franc (+20% in USD) which still hurts exports. But also there is a small decline in demand after luxury watches. The Stock didn’t perform well in the last few years. It peaked in 2023 at 330 CHF and collapsed to 130 CHF in 2025. Since than, it recovered slightly and sits at 209 CHF. Nonetheless, I think the AP collab will be bigger and more meaningful, than people realize. I think Swatch recognized the bigger potential here and they will make more money out of it. Moonswatches were selling for 250€, I think Swatch can easily ask for higher prices now with the AP collab. People also are more aware of the collab and the hype is bigger. People compare them with collectibles and the collectibles market became more popular and bigger and will drive extra demand. Maybe this could also set the fire to push demand after luxury watches overall. Today (May 12th) will be the annual meeting. There are some tensions between foreign investors and the Hayeck family (which is the majority owner of the swatch group). Hayeck needs another success to silence the critiques. This could be his big coup. And I‘m betting on it. Not financial advice. Just sharing my thoughts. Take it as inspiration to do your research.