Snow

The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question What won't change in the next 10 years? Things I've been writing down over time: - Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare. - The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth. - The physical world will move more slowly than the digital one. - Every increase in technological capability, especially AI, will require more energy. - People and businesses will continue to need access to capital. - Capital will continue to seek returns that exceed inflation. - Underwriting methods evolve, but demand for credit (loans) is persistent. - Trust remains scarce and becomes increasingly valuable as content, code, and fraud become cheaper. - Verified identities and reputation becomes more important as information becomes abundant and synthetic. - Long-term wealth creation and dynastic (multi-generational) thinking predate modern technology, and will persist. - Coordination and transaction costs never fully disappear; market friction will continue to justify the existence of firms and intermediaries. - People will continue to compete for status. - Consumers will pay a premium for products and services that confer status. - Time remains fixed at 24 hours per day. - But attention is a finite resource and an enduring constraint. - Products that credibly save time (or enable delegation) have a perpetual market. - Inaccessible, proprietary data will be a persistent moat. The more inaccessible and difficult to aggregate, the deeper the moat. - People want accountability, recourse, and clearly identifiable responsibility when things go wrong. - Regulation consistently lags technological innovation. - Compliance requirements, licensing, and regulatory moats persist even when machines can perform the underlying task. - Local knowledge remains valuable and difficult to replicate. - Heterogeneous markets (like real estate) continue to reward people with deep contextual understanding. - Incumbent organizations tend to underinvest in disrupting their own businesses, which always creates opportunities for challengers. Bezos' insight on what wouldn't change in 10 years was "Customers will always want lower prices and faster delivery." It's boring/ true, but I think that's the point. Everything we build today can and will be rebuilt more cheaply, faster by someone else. Build on the invariants, not the trends. What have I missed?

🚨⚠️ OFFICIAL: Belgian Federation statement on Folarin Balogun red card case, saying they are “astonished”. “The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) is astonished by FIFA's decision to declare suspended United States player Folarin Balogun eligible to play in the USA–Belgium match on Monday, 6 July at 5:00 p.m. (Seattle time). FIFA bases its decision on Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code. This provision states that the FIFA Disciplinary Committee may decide to suspend the enforcement of a previously imposed disciplinary sanction. However, Article 66.4 of the same FIFA Disciplinary Code clearly provides that a red card (sending-off) automatically results in a suspension for the team's next match, as has been the case for all previous red cards issued during this FIFA World Cup. Furthermore, and irrespective of the above, the decision is in direct contradiction with the provisions of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Competition Regulations, as set out in Article 10.5: "If a player or team official is sent off as a result of a direct or indirect red card (second caution), they will automatically be suspended from their team's subsequent match. In addition, further sanctions may be imposed.” The automatic nature of such a suspension was also explicitly reaffirmed in FIFA World Cup 2026 Circular No. 16, which was distributed to all participating member associations on 12 May 2026. The same rule is reiterated at every FIFA World Cup 2026 Match Coordination Meeting prior to each match and is included in all FIFA World Cup 2026 workshop presentations. ❗️In order to safeguard the legitimate rights of all participating teams and to protect the fundamental principles of fair play in our sport, both at this FIFA World Cup and at future editions of the tournament, the RBFA is investigating all potential options.”