Monsieur Secondary

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Monsieur Secondary

Monsieur Secondary

@Msr_Secondary

I track late-stage private tech, secondaries, liquidity and cap tables. Investing/co-investing with my firm. NFA.

New York, NY Katılım Mayıs 2026
54 Takip Edilen8 Takipçiler
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Private markets are full of inefficiencies. Most people just don’t see them. I spend my days looking at late-stage tech deals, secondary liquidity and allocation opportunities. This account is where I’ll write about 👇 - private market inefficiencies - secondary market arbitrage - mispriced late-stage tech - liquidity-driven opportunities - SPVs and allocation access - AI company secondaries - signals before IPOs and M&A NFA.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
In Q1 2026, secondary buyers reportedly bid up Anthropic clips to $960B inside hours (per Rainmaker, Business Insider). In the same quarter, retail private credit funds were reportedly gating redemptions and the public BDC index hit a ~17% discount to NAV. Same word, "private." Two opposite liquidity conditions.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Whoever hosts the price hosts the market.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Anthropic at $9B ARR in late 2025. Reportedly $30B ARR by March 2026. Reportedly raising at $900B in May. The cycle from product launch to civilizational-scale capital, fully inside the private market, with no public investor allowed in the trade. This is what "private for longer" actually looks like at the limit.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Liquidity is a feature of structure, not of price. You can have a $1T valuation and no way to sell. You can also have a $20B loan and no way to mark it.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Tenders are the new IPOs. Continuation funds are the new exits. Secondaries are the new pricing layer. Private credit is the new high-yield. The whole capital-formation stack rebuilt itself outside the public markets, and most people are still reading public quarterly reports.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
A secondary price the issuer won't recognize isn't a price. It's an opinion.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Signs the private capital cycle is later than it feels: 1/ Goldman flags five danger signals echoing dot-com 2/ Public BDC index trading at ~17% discount to NAV (CAIA) 3/ Private credit shadow default rate ~6% vs stated ~2% 4/ AI ARR doubling quarter-on-quarter 5/ Secondary valuations of single companies running 2x what bankers expect at IPO None of these alone is the answer. All of them together is the question.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Signs late-stage secondaries are consolidating, not just growing: 1/ tenders described by senior practitioners as "the new IPOs" 2/ time-to-IPO median now past 8 years 3/ US VC LPs sitting on ~$197B of negative cumulative cash flow since 2022 4/ banks building private capital advisory desks 5/ regulators requiring independent valuations (SEC 2023 rule) (figures per Arcanis, May 2026)
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Signs a "$1T secondary valuation" headline deserves an asterisk: 1/ company controls transfer recognition 2/ only a handful of shares actually changed hands 3/ no employee tender open 4/ no recent primary at that level 5/ buyer pool is one platform deep Headline price is not clearing price.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
The bull case: AI is rebuilding the economy. The bear case: private credit is funding it with the wrong instruments. Man Group flagged it last week. Data-center debt is collateralized like real estate but depreciates like smartphones. The first default wave likely lands in 2027 to 2028, when initial leases renew. Both cases can be true.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Late-stage private secondaries quietly became a $200B+ asset class with no agreed-upon screen. That is a structural opportunity the size of an entire generation of financial infrastructure.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
How a $1T secondary print and a blocked transfer can coexist, explained simply: A platform quote is a price someone is willing to pay. A transfer recognition is the company agreeing the buyer is now on the cap table. If the second one is missing, the first one is just a number on a screen.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Two numbers from the same week: Anthropic reportedly raising at $900B. Lincoln International's database shows 6.4% of private credit loans now carry "bad PIK" (interest deferred mid-loan), up from 2.5% in Q4 2021 (per CAIA, May 2026). Same capital cycle. Different ends of it.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Public equities got Bloomberg in the 1980s because everyone needed the same screen to argue about price. Private markets are arriving at the same problem. Multiple platforms, no shared price, pre-2022 vintages still marked 30 to 60% off. The next decade in late-stage secondaries will be about who hosts the price, not who finds the deal.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
The Anthropic news the AI press is missing: the company has reportedly moved to block Forge, Hiive and Sydecar from offering its shares, and said unapproved transfers won't be recognized on the books. Translation: the secondary market for Anthropic is now whatever Anthropic says it is.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
The old framework where "the real wealth creation happens after IPO" is quietly dying in real time.
Andrew Benson@AndrewBenson

Anthropic ARR, last four months: •January: $14 billion •February: $30 billion •April: $40 billion (per TC sources) •May: ~$45 billion (per FT) No US software company has ever grown like this. The chart doesn’t exist for comparison. Now stack on the valuation curve: •Sept 2025: $183B •Feb 2026: $380B •May 2026: $900B target Revenue tripled. Valuation 5x’d. Both in under a year. Both still private. If this were public, it would be the trade of the decade. Because it isn’t, it’s the access story of the decade

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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
If a private market post quotes one secondary-volume number with no source, assume it's a guess. Setter $204B. Campbell Lutyens $225B. Lazard $233B. Jefferies $240B. Same year. Four numbers. $36B of disagreement. The market is too big for one count.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Private markets are now more concentrated at the top than public markets. Per Forge: top 3 private companies = 68% of top-50 valuation. Top 3 public companies (Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet) = 29% of top-50 market cap. Public markets show consensus. Private markets show concentration.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Carta tracked 396 tender offers on its platform in 2025. Up 62% from 2024. Nearly 20% came from companies at Series E or later. When the IPO window stays narrow, liquidity does not disappear. It moves inside the cap table. Tenders are the new IPO substitute for staying-private-longer companies.
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Monsieur Secondary
Monsieur Secondary@Msr_Secondary·
Read your docs and call the GP is the most underrated advice in secondary private markets rn. Especially if you bought "exposure" to one of the big AI names.
Thomas Braziel@Bkclaims

If you’ve invested in an SPV or tokenized vehicle with “exposure” to companies like Anthropic/OpenAI/etc and aren’t sure where things stand, now is probably a good time to actually read your docs and get in touch with your GP/platform about exactly what you own and what rights you have. A lot of investors are just now realizing there’s a big difference between economic exposure, beneficial ownership, contractual rights, and actual underlying shares. We at 117 have been involved in distressed/special situations investing for many years. Not looking for engagements or trying to scare anyone — but if people have questions or just want someone experienced to talk through these structures/issues with, happy to help where we can. DMs open. tom@117partners.com 117 Partners

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