Barry George Mudge

I should acknowledge that my previous comment about outcomes comes from Annie Duke who wrote a very good book on “How to Decide”

On the Camino in Galicia in northern Spain. Thinking about GRDC RiskWise (not!). Good outcomes are a combination of luck and good decision making. Always nice to be the farm at the end of the rainbow….⁦@GRDCSouth⁩ ⁦@GRDCWest⁩ ⁦@UnfsNorth⁩

Great interview by Oli from Humans of Agriculture with a young farmer (that I know quite well!) with some excellent take home messages of the challenges of learning the difficult craft of farming podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/hum…

Excellent podcast on changing the emphasis of summer weed control more to residuals. Well done Beth Mark and UNFS

@MudgeBarry gives some insight into upcoming RiskWi$e event in the Upper North putting 2024 into perspective. 10th February @ Orroroo please see our previous post with flyer and details.

@AgroJAK Ok. I had heard of the deluge there several weeks ago. Have you been in the cropping regions north of Marrakech up to Casablanca? How has the season opened up there?

Barry - this the location today. Areas of failed tree crop plantings due to a combination of drought and salt

@AgroJAK We visited a newly developed almond and olive orchard in the Middle Atlas which was using excellent techniques to maximise WUE- but lack of recharge and over exploitation of ground water seemed to be the major issue. Analysis of their rainfall shows peaks and troughs as here

@MudgeBarry Barry - this is up near High and Mid Atlas near “Rose Valley” where commercial farming included roses and apples - but I saw a lot of mature trees dying or dead due to drought and/or lack of irrigation. One grower sank a 150 m well and hit some water which kept sine trees going.

Tough times on small family farms in Morocco after 7 year drought then some recent heavy rain.

@TomBourchier Thanks Tom but we probably have enough of our own stock atm. Also some is reasonably light country and so we need to limit grazing

@MudgeBarry Gday Barry, very unfortunate about the hail. If you'd like try to make lemonade from lemons. We are searching for paddocks to adgist lambs on. Could be a great opportunity. Happy to chat in DM with you further if your interested.

Hail damage on our Mambray Creek property last night. Our estimate is 50-100% on wheat, 100% on canola. Not widespread but would have been active while it was happening

Great day with the Nelshaby Ag Bureau and Upper North FS sharing collective local experiences of crap crops (and some seeps!) in a season which for many ranks statistically as their worst on record. Best mental health exercise. All in this together

@Julianne_Hill @GGA_WA Thanks Julianne. I will let the “clever bloke” bit past! But I think the decision matrix approach could be used a lot more broadly particularly for nudging decisions if uncertain. Cam Nicholson explains it well youtube.com/watch?v=RVaW3l…

@MudgeBarry Barry was great to see how you use this when we were over in Aug with the @GGA_WA #DroughtHub. A simple but effective tool - you clever bloke!

For what it is worth I have been experimenting with a simple index over past two years to support intuition with dry seeding decisions. Idea is to update with new experiences. I’ve certainly found it useful to straighten up the thoughts

@geidejr Yes but never hard and fast about the call. Just tries to take some of the emotion out of the choice (go or not).Or more so, how hard we go. Probably a bit more confident in the call we have ended up making

@MudgeBarry Did it work for you so far over these past two years?

@agrobaz Yes Baz you can pull anything you think important into it.Main idea is to get all that competing “stuff” out of your head and info some sort of logical analysis

@MudgeBarry Great thread Barry. I think it could be also used for “sowing into marginal moisture that’s running out”, which is where we are now. I think labour availability, geographical position relating to base, early sown crop spread also come into this. Plus when you want a break 😉

@RichardKonzag Thanks Richard. I find it useful. The concept of a decision matrix like this I think has plenty of legs to try to straighten up the mind tricks

@MudgeBarry How have I missed this Barry? A great tool to go along with many mind inputs to satisfy that gut feeling decision.

@agrobaz Good question Baz. I think you might know my response-the first part is to measure it.Challenge farmers to reduce full cost of production ($/t) by 10%.Then they have to learn how to measure it. Would be great learning for many on financial literacy and what counts.

Been having some interesting conversations with clients about cropping costs and risks. Challenge - “if you had to reduce your annual business spend by 10-20% and maintain this level for 3 yrs what would you change and why”. Interested in others answers.

@bec_raymond_ Yes Bec that messaging also worries me. Risk is clearly about balancing upside against downside.Small chance with high consequences can be critical to decision process.Need to look at the range not the average. Decision making is about both likelihood and consequence across all

@MudgeBarry Barry I'm interested in the messaging in the Qld/NSW videos, they are indicating an average to above average season ahead however there's actually an equal chance of each decile (20% for each), its not as easy as add together and divide by 5 is it... what are your thoughts?

Bureau of Met are now delivering grains specific climate outlooks on a monthly basis-current example for SA/Vic/Tas can be accessed at m.youtube.com/watch?v=TqWnLZ… Interested in users thoughts on the information contained in the video

@IanCocko Am sure plenty of farmers share your view. On other hand there is evidence that information contained in seasonal forecasts is (sometimes) of value. Perhaps we just have to learn to use it better

@MudgeBarry Spending time looking at what has occurred with weather has no relevance to me. I have no faith in anything BOM puts out any further than 7 days. All there info on probabilities of being wetter or drier etc are less accurate than my "gut feel". Pessimistic view I know but true.

@agrobaz @sommy79 Currently there are 3 separate videos-SA/Vic/Tas, Qld/NSW, WA. Still hard work trying to cover climate issues relating to agro decisions over diverse environments even within these zones

@MudgeBarry @sommy79 Is there a reason it’s not east coast or just too big of an area?

@sommy79 Good question. I think it is quite similar. Preference perhaps depends on whether you are a Richmond supporter or not?

@MudgeBarry Is the information different to the fast break info?