Musaad

Very interesting piece on the likely agreement between the US and Iran. There is a lot to unpack here, but two main things to think about: 1. Iran is definitely having the upper hand here. Not only they’ll get some funds without offering any concessions, they’ll come to the nuclear negotiations knowing that the military threat is off the table. The U.S. tried it, and probably doesn’t want to do it again. 2. A dramatic change will happen in the region. Iran will be more aggressive in its regional posture, as it saw that military pressure on its neighbouring countries worked. Even more, now the US backing of these countries will seem less of a challenge than before. The Gulf countries know that and some of them will for sure prefer to capitulate to Iran rather than confront it, especially without US help.