Astironamter
152 posts
$btc Now, 66k was hit and the cat was fed. But she's still hungry. So she's now going on the hunt herself. That's what our shorts we entered Yesterday above 66k are really about.
$btc - FOMC reversal Why we countertrend shorted above 66k - confluence 1 Alright, as promised, after sharing the entry which is already 3 hours ago, I would share one by one why I am considering this countertrend short after hitting our major major target, 66k. In the post itself, I have given all reasons, but I promised to lay them out with the respective charts, one by one. Not something I can share in one post, since, as many of you know, my trades aren't just based on one chart or idea, they are a full construct and detailed plan of a lot of strong confluences to get to the full idea, the golden standard before even considering entering the market, especially on a countertrend trade. Here is one of them, it's the FOMC reversal. As many of you may already know, and as I am also known for, for sharing this analysis in the past many times. In fact, almost every time, days before FOMC comes around, I shared this analysis, with the announcement of "FOMC is happening IMO", or, on the rare occasion "we may see FOMC continuation this time, as shared in October/November 2024. Why days before? Because the market tends to reverse before the FOMC meeting, not during or after. Like clockwork, where the masses anticipate a "large move" after the meeting, exit their trades (at the worst times), to "stay safe", the market has already reversed. That's the FOMC reversal in a nutshell. It works with 90%+ accuracy, and with another meeting coming up on the 29th of July, we have another FOMC reversal idea coming up, of price reversing the uptrend back down. For how much of a move and how long you ask? That's an analysis for another time, and just using this analysis for that, the targets, is not sufficient. And that brings us back full circle, as to why I never base my trades off of just one analysis. FOMC reversal is a direction and a mild onset of an entry idea, not a target, not a full trade framework. But it's strong confluence to a rather great swing of direction, one that almost always makes you money. And as a full time trader, that's all that matters, in my world.
$btc What after 66k? That's right, after closing a lot of long exposure, I am slowly adding some countertrend short exposure again here. For the record, can we get three wins in a row again? Now before you read the title and immediately copy my move, know that there is time for this coming short to play out. So I suggest to read the post to set expectations first. No confidence, no trade, very important. Context Context first, for the ones who are new, but also the ones who have been around, context matters a lot. The best practice before setting expectations to the future, is to refer to recent past first on all timeframes. Context matters. Especially when a major target such as 66k hits. How it hits, changes the meaning of it hitting. Recently, we ranged for a very long time sub 60k, and had a slow move up close to 66k, not hitting it, followed by a final quick burst from sub 63k (62.5k) to finally going north of 66k. To get there was a process, lots of traps formed, even all the way up to the final move on July 15th which fell just shy of 66k. We shorted it back to the NYO pico low, our infamous cat and mouse game of recent past. We trapped the mouse and brought home 66k. It secured us two wins in a row again, with this trade, we are aiming to get a third win in a row for obvious reasons (NFA). Overall, what just happened, and the entire move to 60k, is classic major liquidity play, of setting traps until finally hitting a major liquidity level. Major liquidity targets don't get hit, they are reached in the form of a trap first, before clearance so this indeed confirms that 66k+ was a major liquidity target. And the final move to it, was a rather swift move. That is our context, and already gives clues to what next. More context, is the fact that July has grabbed June's low, before reaching higher, it hasn't done it without grabbing June's low, which tells us the intent of July's end of month PA is different, it tells us a weaker end than if June's low wasn't taken, and it tells us June's midpoint (66k) is also of more importance than if June's low wasn't taken. That's added confluence to the expectations of July's end. So overall, context gives us reasons to at the very least, not be overly bullish here north 66k+. Is it a short position? Not yet. Can't just trade on "vibes" and context alone. We're going deeper. Biases Next, are biases. Are they still the same? What are my directional expectations? Weekly bias My weekly bias remains: 60k region is the bottom, I have been and still think the bears are wrong, and this move to 66k+ only solidified the 60k region as a bottom, where the daily range extends and builds more liquidity. So I still think we don't see sub 50k, that remains. It not changing, is only logical, a daily target hitting, doesn't mean a weekly bias changes, it means at most, a daily bias changes if all conditions of the target hitting fulfil. Daily bias And since it has, and since this was a major target, my daily bias indeed now has changed. It's no longer bullish, because indeed my daily target of 66k has been hit. It's cautiously bearish now. I say cautiously, and that's a keyword, because we are in a weekly regime which imo bottoms us out. Which means that my bias isn't permanently bearish here on the daily timeframe nor is it bearish for a long time. It's cautiously or "countertrend" bearish. A weekly bottoming regime is not a time to attach a heavy bearish bias on the daily against the trend, and it explains why this isn't a heavy short either, it's a lighter one. And that positioning here, goes in lockstep with the mindset "don't gamble away your profits straight away". We just scored major gains at 66k closing 3 longs at the same time (except runners), no need to gamble them away with large overly confident positions. Hourly bias Of less importance, but this bias can help local impatience. My bias locally, is still a range/slow pa here. Which supports why I think there is still time for this move to play out. Magnets Next, are magnets. They need to support our bias. Weekly magnets: none below. Last one was 60k, that's cleared, a long time ago already (since Feb). Daily magnets are present: we have poor lows on the TPO charts, both locally and still lingering in the sub 63k region as well. Keeping in mind, poor lows on their own, not a guaranteed magnet, especially not in a weekly bottoming regime, but they ad to the overall confidence. Finally, the weekly open untapped, you already know what that means. Further confluences and timing Furthermore, we are in the lower high region (LH region) of June 15th high, classic place to expect rotations to occur. Added to that, we have mmd with $eth, I'm also going to leave no further comment to what that means, long term followers know, just ask them in the comments. And finally, we have FOMC meeting to the 29th of July. Also no need to express what that means. Type in FOMC reversal in my post history search function, and you know. Summary In short, I went short here , no pun intended. We just hit our major 66k liquidity target, the target we have waited for, for a very long time. The way we reached it, combined with the confluences, which are quite a few, are enough to expect some digestion of the move up that just happened. We are trying to capture that. Not in an ultra bearish way, but in a cautious, against the trend way, with still enough potential to make good money type of way. So keep in mind, the decision of this trade is on the edge. Not every predicted/expected move should be traded. Some aren't worth it since they have lower tail reward. There are no guarantees, and I sometimes get it wrong too. This is one of them. Although FOMC reversal can offer bigger moves, and $eth mmd can offer resistance longer than people are confident on. So label this very much as a countertrend short attempt, one worth taking. And adjust your size to what your tolerance suggest is good for countertrend plays like this. Enjoy, plan is given, outlines are clear, and over time, I will create more posts, reminders and also sentiment reads supporting this countertrend thesis. But for now, I just want to pioneer this pullback idea, in case we get copied or ideas get pushed around, to have this as a reference to be "the first", etc etc. Per rule of credit where due, but also because being prepared early is good. Being prepared early is important.
$btc Why we countertrend shorted above 66k - confluence 3 Another reason why we shorted above 66k is the TPO chart and the weekly open. When TPO leaves poor lows, especially in proximity (in this case above) weekly open, they likely get tagged or at least offer a local pull. That move down is also supported with the TPO POC's migrating down as the profile progresses. Further supporting our short trade idea north 66k.