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Weekly Financial Advisor Peer Poll & Results Stay ahead of how your peers are positioning right now. Each week, we capture real-time allocation shifts from financial advisors responding to the current economic backdrop—rate moves, inflation prints, earnings, geopolitics, and more. No noise. Just clear, decision-grade insight into how advisors are adjusting equity, fixed income, cash, and alternatives—plus what’s driving the changes. It’s built to keep disciplined advisors aligned with opportunity and prepared for what’s next. One weekly pulse. Transparent positioning. Actionable context. Subscribe below to view live results and weekly summaries. rb.gy/3gkzhj

Last week: trade the oil spike. This week: own the earnings. The move now is energy equities that benefit from sustained oil — not just price jumps. ETFs to express it: • Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) — large-cap oil majors with direct earnings leverage • SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) — higher beta upstream exposure • Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF (MLPX) — midstream cash flows + contracts Oil holding higher → earnings revisions come next. Own the cash flows, not the spike. More equity energy funds: mutualfunds.com/equity-categor…

Most popular ETFs this week: MINT (short-term bond ETF focused on capital preservation + income) VTI (total U.S. stock market exposure) VGK (European equities) VCIT (intermediate-term investment-grade corporate bonds) IVV (S&P 500 exposure) EIS (Israel equities) QQQI (Nasdaq-100 covered call income strategy) UCO (leveraged oil exposure) VOO (S&P 500 exposure) IGV (software and tech stocks)

Active ETF Scorecard: commodities and international funds are leading. While the S&P 500 is down ~6–7% YTD, active ETFs tied to commodities and global markets are outperforming: • Active Alts: +10.55% • Active EM Equity: +10.30% • Active Intl Equity: +6.38% The takeaway: leadership has clearly shifted outside the U.S. We track and rank the largest active ETFs each week — so you can quickly see where active managers are actually winning. mutualfunds.com/p/4nlgiuly2wvo…

@unusual_whales I'm sure they felt worse in 1929 and 2008...

"Americans feel worse about the economy than ever before," per BI

Most popular ETFs on our site this week: $MINT — ultra-short duration bonds (capital preservation) $TQQQ — leveraged Nasdaq (high-risk growth) $VTI — total U.S. stock market (broad exposure) $BOND — active core bond fund (income + stability) $XQQI — covered call Nasdaq strategy (income + tech exposure) $JEPQ — covered call equity income (yield + reduced volatility) $XLE — energy equities (oil exposure) $EIS — Israel equities (geopolitical trade) $QQQ — Nasdaq 100 (large-cap tech) $DRN — leveraged REITs (real estate + high beta)

That’s not a stat — it’s a multi-year demand signal for builders. If policy shifts + capital flow toward construction, builder-heavy ETFs are one of the cleanest ways to play it: • iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF — pure-play exposure to homebuilders • SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF — broader mix (builders + suppliers) • Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF — adds industrial/construction leverage Housing shortage = supply response. Supply response = builders.

There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength

U.S. margin debt just hit $1.1 trillion, the highest ever. That means investors have borrowed over a trillion dollars to buy more stocks. In September alone, they borrowed another $67 billion. And now, the SEC is being asked to approve something called 5x leveraged ETFs, which would let people borrow five times the amount they invest. In simple terms: investors are already loaded with debt, and now some firms want to hand them an even bigger credit card. Margin debt is basically money borrowed from a broker to buy more investments. If your portfolio goes up, you make extra money. But if it goes down you lose faster and if it falls too much, you’re forced to sell to pay back what you owe. That’s called a margin call. So, when margin debt hits record highs like this, it means a lot of people are investing with borrowed money. It works great in a bull market, but it makes the system fragile when prices start falling. Right now, margin debt equals about 2% of the total value of the S&P 500, higher than during the dot-com bubble in 2000. That doesn’t automatically mean a crash is coming, but it does mean everyone’s taking on more risk. When markets are full of borrowed money, small dips can snowball into bigger ones, because people have to sell to cover their loans. That selling creates even more pressure on prices And here’s where it gets risky, some firms want to launch 5x leveraged ETFs, funds that would let traders magnify stock or crypto moves by five times each day. So if Tesla moves 2%, that ETF could move 10%. It sounds exciting, but it also means a small market drop could wipe out an investor in a day. The U.S. currently limits leverage to 2x for safety reasons, but these proposals would go far beyond that. If approved, they could make the market even more sensitive to fast, sharp swings. We already saw what can happen when everyone is leveraged at once. On October 10th, crypto markets lost $19 billion in just 24 hours. Over 1.6 million traders were wiped out because prices dropped, triggering automatic liquidations. Once that started, everything snowballed prices fell faster, trading systems froze and there was almost no liquidity left to stop the fall. Now imagine that kind of event in traditional markets where stocks and crypto are more connected than ever. If one side breaks, it could easily spill over to the other. That’s why regulators are watching closely approving 5x ETFs in an already leveraged environment could turn normal market pullbacks into chaos. This all just means we’re in a phase where confidence is high and risk taking is everywhere. Leverage isn’t necessarily evil but it just magnifies everything. When things are good, it makes them great. But when things turn, it makes them worse.

There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength

Don't forget that there is always more room to fuel this already overvalued market. NYSE margin debt growth remains far from extreme levels. The next major top will probably occur after reaching 50%, followed by deleveraging. We will likely get there in one year.

There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength

I truly believe we are already in a bubble (it doesn't mean the party is over), but if we adjust margin debt for U.S. corporate profits, we are still far from the insane levels seen prior to the dot-com bubble burst. This suggests that (according to this indicator), whether measured by NYSE margin debt adjusted for profits or even as a percentage of market cap, the insanity is not over.

There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength

30 year old has $50k saved for retirement Plans to save $200/month but mostly let compounding do the heavy lifting for the next 35 years (assumes 7% ROI) No debt Is that enough to be comfortable in retirement by age 65? I have some thoughts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/01/coasti…

There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength

Has the financial system failed or advanced? This chart shows the absolute amount of money that investors/traders borrow from brokerage accounts since 1970. The point is that from 1931 to 1970, margin debt rose 222%, while the S&P 500 gained 869%. On the other hand, since the gold standard was fully abandoned, margin debt has jumped 26,000%, while the S&P 500 is up 7,530% (3.4× higher). Totally debt-driven, a de-leverage situation is basically unavoidable at some point, and the economy will really need to be reinvented, imho.

Margin debt always gets flagged as a warning sign — but it’s not a timing tool. There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength What it signals is a market with higher leverage and sensitivity — not an instant top.

We’re entering end-stage bubble territory. As the AI bubble keeps inflating, investors are piling on record margin debt. At the same time, Volatility Shares just launched the first-ever 5× leveraged ETF. What could possibly go wrong, using leverage at this stage of the cycle?

Margin debt always gets flagged as a warning sign — but it’s not a timing tool. There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength What it signals is a market with higher leverage and sensitivity — not an instant top. Positioning can stay stretched longer than expected, but when things shift, the unwind can be fast.

Every major market top in history had one thing in common. Margin debt peaked first. 2000: margin debt topped → Dotcom crash 2008: margin debt topped → Financial crisis 2022: margin debt topped → −25% bear market Today? Margin debt has just topped again. When borrowed money starts leaving the market — it doesn’t trickle out. It floods out. This is the risk factor nobody is discussing.

Margin debt always gets flagged as a warning sign — but it’s not a timing tool. There have been multiple peaks where nothing immediate happened: • 1999–early 2000: margin debt surged for months before the dot-com peak • 2006–2007: elevated levels persisted well ahead of the financial crisis • 2014–2015: hit new highs, market kept grinding higher • 2021: record margin debt, equities continued higher into late-cycle strength What it signals is a market with higher leverage and sensitivity — not an instant top. Positioning can stay stretched longer than expected, but when things shift, the unwind can be fast.

@ThierryBorgeat But margin debt has peaked many times without anything happening. Not saying this time will be one of those times.

@LynAldenContact The only fix is asset price depreciation.

Brutal.

@jeffreytucker Second wave? This is more like the 6th or 7th wave

Goods inflation running hot at 4%. I don't see how the US manages a second wave. It will be devastation.

@StealthQE4 I flew twice yesterday and both flights were full.

Just got on flight. My plane is like 20% full. Wen recession?

@Nostre_damus Not even in top 30

This is the most riduclous market I have ever seen

@HeroDividend Why isn't it?

Why is oil crashing?