Concierge Physician

I don’t make the rules on un-inversion of the yield curve and recessions. Remember Dec 2024 un-inversion as the last one that nobody is talking about? Looks like we are following a 1988-1989 situation where there is a 14-17 month lag before a recession is called. This lines up perfectly with Kevin Warsh becoming the new FED chair and rate cuts, where something will break but everyone will think it is bullish. The labor market will tick up so they will be forced to cut rates. 1988-89 Cycle: Inversion → Normal (Mar 1989) → Recession (Aug 1990) ~14–17 mo lag 2000 Cycle: Inversion → Normal (Dec 2000) → Recession (Mar 2001) ~3 mo lag 2006-07 Cycle: Inversion → Normal (Jun 2007) → Recession (Dec 2007) ~6 mo lag 2019 Cycle: Inversion → Normal (Oct 2019) → Recession (Feb 2020) ~4 mo lag 2022-24 Cycle: Inversion → Normal (Dec 2024) → *No recession dated yet* *Lag pending / future*

Holy smokes $VIX is 31 Closed some losses Rolled some Bad day in general for portfolio Those in puts winning, congrats

Lol

Going to do 642 Spy calls on open as needs to hold

Are institutions about to rotate back into stocks? US pension funds are estimated to purchase +$13.8 billion of US equities by the quarter-end, according to Goldman Sachs. This is larger than 97% of all monthly purchases over the last 3 years and 93% since January 2000. By comparison, pension funds have sold an average of -$1.8 billion per month since 2000, while the all-time high purchase was +$80.6 billion during the 2020 pandemic. This comes as US pension funds are set to rebalance from bonds to equities to maintain target allocations after the recent decline in stocks. As a consequence, an equivalent amount of bonds will be sold to fund the purchases. Equities are set for large inflows.

@Mr_Derivatives Love this stat Seems 5% rally in the cards as puts $SPY near 677 before next drop.

$SPX 2020 Covid Crash: Initially dropped 15% unabated, rallied 10%, before the next shoe dropped. 2022 High Interest/Inflation Crash: Initially dropped 12% unabated, rallied 9%, before the next shoe dropped. 2025 Trump Tariffs Crash: Initially dropped 10% unabated, rallied 5%, before the next shoe dropped. 2026 Iran War "Crash": Initially dropped 8% unabated, what comes next? Extrapolate how you see fit!

@RentYourStocks Crazy times and I was going to do a one DTE for $1000 lotto and it would’ve been huge I always missed these opportunities but felt like there was Max pain today and he had to do something with the 10 year yield and oil prices

I don't think a lot of people are aware of this, but $SPY puts and calls are tradable until 4:15pm. A 4:11pm announcement is absolutely savage. Calls that were dead have to be instantly rehedged by dealers. Can't think of a worse time for an announcement.

@KobeissiLetter What step are we in for your playbook? Step 8? Can’t recall

BREAKING: President Trump says he is PAUSING the "period of energy plant destruction" in Iran by 10 days, until April 6th. For the second time, within minutes of our call for bond market "intervention" and the 10Y Note Yield crossing 4.40%, Trump has delayed strikes. Keep watching the bond market.

Same Taco 🌮 as Tariffs Should see market rip soon

Also adding to some losing positions Might or might not roll

Too many Bear posting and I am going to take some calls

Today’s data (weekly claims) •Initial jobless claims: ~210,000 •Expectation: ~210,000 (basically right on target) •Takeaway: Labor market still stable / “low-fire” environment

Nobody talking about the job report?

Out of remaining $PLTR puts All green

@GAndersonTrades Was a good day to scalp or day trade $MU

Told you guys lol $MU

I guess Cathy Wood is selling Cramer is doomsday Now seems bullish

Can $ADBE get to 208 (now 217), as this would be a 2018 price and would look nice for a buy.

@Mr_Derivatives Nice comparison Has it ever repeated 1 year later or does it skip a year, that is the question?

$QQQ Deja Vu?! Bulls MUST hold this double bottom!!

The market is experiencing historically high intraday volatility: The number of intraday reversals in the S&P 500 over the last 3 months is up to 28, the highest since 2015. This means that in nearly half of all trading sessions over the last 3 months, the market opened either higher or lower than the previous day and erased that opening move. This is also the 2nd-highest reading since the 2008 Financial Crisis, which peaked at 35 such days. Headline-induced volatility is extremely high.

@Mr_Derivatives Up then

Tomorrow is Thursday. Still with me? Good. The $SPX has gone now 8 straight red Thursdays. Just wanted to announce that. Do what you want with this “information”.

Facts ha ha