Neil Crosby

But much may or may not happen in Iran between now and the next group meeting. If nothing happens, we get a major sell off, and more OPEC supply adds to the rout.

Of course escalation in the Middle East is primary price upside event. Even in a relatively minor disruption scenario vs worst case, OPEC can hike into this with ease.

OPEC+'s supply dilemma for Q2 🧵...

No dice, crude leads the way to higher inventory. Market seems increasingly well-supplied ex India/Russia/US surprises.

One of my favorite oil charts for now. Commercial crude&product stockchanges, 4 wk avg. If we are still in a tight market, this needs to calm. Drivers include weak implied(!) prod demand, low crude exports. Can't write that off though, also knowing H1 WTI-Asia flows plummetted.