
NOXQCE
2.3K posts





$MOS – Mosaic LTH (Long-Term Hold) Now up +20% in 2 days. 👍 I'm glad of course, but I know it's news driven. Still, I'll take it. Now, let's settle here and see if we can head higher, or if we'll consolidate first.











$MOS Mosaic on the other hand... wow. This could absolutely RIP. Yes it has some well documented challenges on the sulfur price spike due to the Hormuz closure, but a urea shortage could force substitution for other nitrogen and phosphate blends as farmers seek alternatives. Mosaic ripped 75% in 2 months in the 2022 Ukraine war btw. Good risk reward here


Oil is up 34.5 percent in a week. Gold is up 2.3 percent. That divergence is the single most important signal in global markets right now and almost nobody is reading it correctly. The consensus explanation is that dollar strength from oil driven inflation is capping gold. Energy costs denominated in dollars increase global dollar demand. Higher inflation delays Fed rate cuts. Gold rises on the war premium but falls on the rate repricing. Net result: modest gain while oil screams higher. Mechanically correct. Strategically incomplete. In every major oil shock driven by Middle Eastern conflict since 1973, gold’s response has followed a two phase pattern. Phase one: gold underperforms oil because the dollar strengthens on the same inflation that drives the oil surge. The correlation between oil and gold compresses from its crisis average of 0.6 to something lower. In the current war the correlation has run at roughly 0.4 since February 28. Phase two arrives when the market realizes the disruption is structural rather than transient. When the forward curve shifts from pricing a spike to pricing a plateau. When inflation is no longer a fear but a fact embedded in input costs and food prices. When central banks run out of room to hold rates steady against a supply shock they cannot fix with monetary tools. The dollar ceases to be a haven. The correlation snaps back. Gold reprices to match the structural reality that oil already priced. In 1973, oil quadrupled between October and March. Gold rose six percent during the embargo itself. Then gold rose 73 percent over the following twelve months as the structural inflation embedded. In 1990, oil doubled during the Kuwait invasion. Gold rose six percent during the crisis. Then gold held its gains while oil collapsed when the war ended in weeks. The difference between 1973 and 1990 is duration. The embargo lasted months. The Gulf War lasted weeks. Gold’s phase two only detonates when the market accepts that the disruption is not transient. Now apply the mechanism test. Hormuz is closed not by Iranian gunboats but by the withdrawal of commercial reinsurance. Reinsurance returns on actuarial timelines, not political ones. The DFC backstop covers six percent of the exposure gap. The ships have not moved. Futures are pricing 30 to 60 day resolution. The mechanism says months. If the mechanism is right and the market is wrong about duration, gold is currently in phase one of a 1973 pattern, not a 1990 pattern. The 2.3 percent gain is not gold failing as a hedge. It is gold waiting for the market to catch up to the mechanism. Goldman Sachs has a year end target of $6,300 set before the war. If the Hormuz closure persists beyond 90 days, that target is conservative. The oil chart says the supply shock is real. The gold chart says the market believes it is temporary. One of them is wrong. The reinsurance mechanism says it is gold that has not yet priced reality. The lag is the trade. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

like i said, the start to 2026 will be too much winning and there's going to be an epic Q2 but many will fail to see it until it's too late

I've already been asked by a couple people about this who know I am getting mentored by Abundance, so I think it's important that I comment here. I started my mentorship with him almost 2 months ago now, and we started with mindset. Mindset stuff never interested me, so when he said we were starting with that I kind of was like "mehhh...just want to get into the other stuff" - really I just wanted to learn time cycles...but I gave it a try. I always neglected mindset stuff bc I'm very strong willed and will work endlessly until I get what I want. Which means I don't need mindset help...right? I was wrong. Abundance has helped me tremendously with my mindset. I'm more present with my family, I'm more self aware (and I was already extremely self aware), I'm MUCH more efficient in my work, I'm more motivated (and was already highly motivated, and he's actually adjusted my outlook on quite a few things. Hard to explain...my mindset is still similar to what is was before, but more optimal in so many different areas. So much more effective in many different areas...and not just in trading. He has taught me that real life habits transition into your trading life. It was actually so effective that I told one of my business partners to reach out and hire him so he could push us together in one of our businesses, which he did. I have yet to go into THIS specific product, but I had to vouch for Abundance's mindset knowledge. He truly cares too. I'm pretty sure our first call was suppose to be an hour and it went almost 3... Appreciate you A






GF portfolio up +32% since March with steady equity to the top right corner with minimum to nearly no drawdawns and nicely diversified Portfolio (did two minor changes to it since the start) Digital Assets: #Bitcoin Commodities: #GOLD #Silver Stocks: #NVDA #BABA #NVO #XOM #CDNS



This is an AI reel mind you & in the comments it’s a bunch of men wishing their woman was like her. We are doomed!!!!!!! Niggas is wishing for an AI chick









