Geateno
44 posts
$AAOI Let's do some math I was going back through my sources and AOI has given us two rough ASPs. They said: 800G is roughly ~$400/unit 1.6T is roughly ~$700-$800/unit So IF they successfully ramp capacity AND Customers truly want to buy all that they can make AND They are operating at 100% of this capacity Then we are looking at a blue sky scenario of: ~$330 million in revenue per month by Q4 2026 ~$500 million in revenue per month by Q4 2027 THIS IS ONLY FOR 800G & 1.6T. They also have 100G, 400G, AOC, and ELSFP 300mW/400mW But a theoretical revenue for 2027, only factoring in 800G & 1.6T, strictly going off their slide deck would put us in the $5b revenue range. And management is aiming for 40% gross margins by the end of 2027. Please keep in mind that this is the top line scenario right now. Reality is is that even if they execute exceptionally, they still will probably fall short of these projections. So take it with a massive grain of salt. But also, their CATV business will also do over $300 million. And their other products will be in the hundreds of millions as well, but no firm number there so I don’t want to include it. This is all for a company that is currently trading at ~$6.5B. ... This is immense opportunity. I really want to be clear there. I also want to be clear that this is still a story until they execute and deliver consistently. Please understand the risk if they falter in a meaningful way. If they execute here, it is severely undervalued today. If they falter and under deliver in a meaningful and sustained way, it is severely over valued today. Also, I am human. I make mistakes. Please double check my math. Not financial advice!
