Chris Rawley

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Chris Rawley

Chris Rawley

@NavalDrones

Texan. Aggie. Retired Navy Captain. Pro-Small Business. Mostly contrarian opinions (my own) on farming, fighting, and investing.

Fort Worth, TX Katılım Ağustos 2012
3.7K Takip Edilen4.8K Takipçiler
Gary Haubold
Gary Haubold@GaryHaubold·
@NavalDrones FWIW, I asked Gemini to compare the Tomahawk to the LUCAS. Seem like 2 unique weapons for very different missions:
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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
Will the relatively expensive Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) be replaced by much cheaper drones that are now capable of matching the weapon's range and targeting abilities? I wouldn't bet on it. Since its first combat usage during Desert Storm just over 35 years ago, the US Navy has fired over 2700 TLAMs at more than a dozen countries. The TLAM's speed, relatively low signature, and warhead size fired at 1000 miles over the horizon from a strategically mobile, heavily defended launch system is still a pretty powerful combination against an integrated air defense network.
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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
Heading to AnimalAgTech in Fort Worth on April 8–9 to talk about investing in innovative livestock technologies. Friends - hit me up if you'll be there. invt.io/1txb6gyt0fc
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cdrsalamander
cdrsalamander@cdrsalamander·
The Standards and Policy Select Committee of the Operational Planning Subcommittee of the Men’s Committee Who Allows Things would like to submit a letter of concurrence emphasizing General Caine’s proper use of the term “Flank” in regards to the Strait of Hormuz, just as the Shatt al-Arab waterway is part of the northern flank. We do have one caveat—and being an zoomie we will cut him some slack—but it is “Strait of Hormuz” not the plural “Straits.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. Take charge, and carry out the plan of the day.
Status-6 (War & Military News)@Archer83Able

Chairman of the JCS Gen. Dan Caine: "The A-10 Warthog is now in the fight across the southern flank and is hunting and killing fast attack watercraft in the Straits of Hormuz."

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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
@tshugart3 @EvansRyan202 The regime will no longer be in charge to threaten the SoH. May take weeks or months, but that's where this is going.
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Tom Shugart
Tom Shugart@tshugart3·
The problem with "declaring victory & ending the war" is that the loser decides when the war is over. U.S. victory declaration or not, if Iran continues to decide who goes through the SoH unmolested, or continues to attack U.S. bases & partner countries—then the war is not over.
Kelley B. Vlahos@KelleyBVlahos

Wise words from @esaagar : “The Republican base is clearly willing to trust President Trump up to a point but remain weary of any potential escalation. As evidenced by this polling the wisest move would be to declare victory and end this immediately.”

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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
@MartinSkold2 You really think the Iranians have a few thousand Shahed's left? Seems doubtful.
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Martin Skold
Martin Skold@MartinSkold2·
Assume a 1 percent hit rate. Assume likewise that only a few thousand are fired. That’s easily 50 ships that get disabled. Insurance companies get jumpy with numbers like that even with as much traffic as an open Hormuz has. Multiply it out and you get more. Etc. We don’t really even need to speculate on this: This was how they closed the Bab two years ago. And it’s partly how they’re lighting up shipping now.*
Amit Lidor | עמית לידור@AmitLidor

In order to damage a target, a Shahed-136 must actually hit it. That’s not what wer’e seeing… In Ukraine - only about 3%-4% of these UAVs hit their intended target. In Israel - none have. A Shahed-136 mainly functions as an air defense saturation system. Attempting to achieve a direct hit with a Shahed-136, in an A2AD environment, will cost more than using an American Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, you’ll need hundreds to ensure a single hit.

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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
@sardonic_fly0 @Silverback766 Yes, that's a risk, but I think there's a lot more non-jihadi resistance potential in the Iranian population than there was in Libya. Some amount of factional violence will inevitably happen, but that doesn't mean the country will collapse into a failed state.
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Sardonic_fly
Sardonic_fly@sardonic_fly0·
@NavalDrones @Silverback766 The risk-- the very real risk-- is that you just end up with a bunch of regional powers all backing different factions within, leading to another Libya situation. Iraq, turkey, qatar, & Saudis are all likely to back different factions.
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Chris Rawley retweetledi
John Spencer
John Spencer@SpencerGuard·
No, not even close. No one has ever had the capability to kill an entire hierarchy of political and military leaders of the enemy (and any replacements identified during the war). It challenges theories of how the will of the enemy is attacked and waging a war is imagined.
Amir Mizroch@Amirmizroch

Has there ever been such a relentless and ruthless regime decapitation in the history of warfare? @simonmontefiore @SpencerGuard

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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
I agree with your last point. But the IRGC and Basij are quickly losing their ability to control their population. With the IDF basically providing CAS for any uprising, I don't think they stand much of a chance of staying in control. But, the Iranians are going to have to fight and bleed for their own freedom. The stage has been set.
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Sardonic_fly
Sardonic_fly@sardonic_fly0·
@NavalDrones @Silverback766 What, exactly, is the plan there then? Removing IRGC isn't exactly that easy, & there isn't the same kind of overly centralized leadership structure you saw in Iraq. The country is also far more divided-- and ethnically diverse-- than most think.
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The🐰FOO
The🐰FOO@PolitiBunny·
Want to use my new crockpot but I don’t want to make chili or pot roast or any of the more traditional meals. Send me your favorite recipes for the crockpot, please. :)
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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
Based on typical fighter development timelines, I can't believe it makes sense to "plan for obsolescence" because AI/autonomy isn't quite where we want it to be today. In 10 years (at best) when F/A-xx were to reach IOC, it will be. Moreover, you can still have pilots in the loop making the decisions, they just don't need to be right over the target or in the WEZ.
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NavyDigi
NavyDigi@NavyDigi·
@NavalDrones Good question. Because dynamic executive decision-making is extremely important to the fighter mission, and where you're going, you have to be *certain* everything works. Give the pilot the very best tools, including AI/Autonomy/etc. But don't pull him until you are *certain*
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NavyDigi
NavyDigi@NavyDigi·
The air war in Iran provides a great opportunity to talk about the future of Naval Aviation, and why we cannot rest on our laurels. So: Why F/A-XX? And why ASAP?
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Chris Rawley
Chris Rawley@NavalDrones·
Speaking during an address to the UK Parliament, Zelenskyy highlighted the rapid evolution of Ukraine’s naval drone program since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, stating: “Our naval drones are constantly evolving. We focused on the speed of this development—and we succeeded. We reclaimed our sea.”
UNITED24 Media@United24media

⚡ Ukraine is developing next-gen naval drones for open ocean missions. Officials say the new systems are designed to operate beyond the Black Sea, expanding Ukraine’s unmanned maritime capabilities into broader ocean environments. 🔗 united24media.com/latest-news/uk…

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Amit Lidor | עמית לידור
In order to damage a target, a Shahed-136 must actually hit it. That’s not what wer’e seeing… In Ukraine - only about 3%-4% of these UAVs hit their intended target. In Israel - none have. A Shahed-136 mainly functions as an air defense saturation system. Attempting to achieve a direct hit with a Shahed-136, in an A2AD environment, will cost more than using an American Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, you’ll need hundreds to ensure a single hit.
Evan Kirstel #B2B #TechFluencer@EvanKirstel

Hardware reality check: cheap drones are rewriting the cost curve. A ~$20K drone can seriously damage assets worth millions, not because of size but because of smart engineering. Shaped charges focus energy forward instead of wasting it, punching through steel and then delivering damage where it actually matters inside. It’s not about bigger weapons anymore. It’s about precision, physics, and asymmetry. #Drones #DefenseTech #Engineering #AsymmetricWarfare

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