Carolina Storm Chasers

sneaky northwest flow event tomorrow evening in the carolina’s. these events are notorious for big hailers around here. golf ball and hen eggs are the maximum sizes imo, but if we get CAPE to increase we could see a higher ceiling. mainly watching cola to clt points northwest.

had it not been for the FROPA yesterday would’ve been a total bust. now the significant wind risk didn’t verify, but this still verified as a decent 45% no hatch wind day. say whatever you want about the tornado risk though, that busted HARD. only tornado was in the 10 CIG1 area.

gotta be thankful this happened. on paper this looked like a significant event since friday.

a scenario that we’ll need to watch to see if it plays out; shredding the QLCS once it crosses the mountains. this would increase the tornado potential a-lot. wind would stay the same.

@greer93_greer @wx_sammy skeptical towards that area but definitely possible, im thinking this area

@NcScStrmChasers @wx_sammy Conway SC?

what a change in 18z/00z model guidance. likely models came to the conclusion that they were way to progressive. this would increase the tornado and wind risk for everybody with a later front. i honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the SPC paint many areas in a mdt risk soon.

insane to see this over the mid atlantic/carolina’s. monday shaping up to be a dangerous day!

with a warm front lifting north out of SC tomorrow i’m quite concerned that a few storms could rotate and get tornadic sunday pm into the am hours of monday. lots of directional shear and low level instability out there. will probably have some decent structure on these also.

you’d want the progressive GFS to be right (which i doubt it will be) for Monday or otherwise we could be dealing with a very dangerous severe weather day in the Carolina’s. several tornadoes and widespread significant damaging winds are becoming increasingly possible.

will have to watch Monday for the possibility of a significant severe weather event in the Carolina’s. deep layer shear, ripping LLJ, decent CAPE, and looping curved hodos with elevated EHI levels and strong forcing from 700 mb. widespread dmg wind and tornado event on the table.

@Jason26199627 how are you so confident?

@nchighrisk “Buckle up” for what, 1 or 2 fish hurricanes? lol

@greer93_greer I saw that, inland warnings are now being posted

@nchighrisk Conway, SC is under a Tropical Storm Warning

@TimBuckleyWX My view from the house just a mile south of it

This could last an hour

@chazzzwx Also I’ve seen better storms

@chazzzwx “Second time it’s happen” second time you’ve shit talked

second time it has happened now

@BryceCasperWX @chazzzwx Thank You

@chazzzwx Leaking a gc, ts is not a secret government chat

@chazzzwx @NWS_BaltWash Yeaaaaah, ur not. 30-45mph ? Maybe. 60mph ? No lmfao

@nchighrisk @NWS_BaltWash i am deadass 💀

60 MPH WIND GUSTS IN CUMBERLAND MD @NWS_BaltWash