Neel

Oil price could hit $150 to $200. Here is the crisis nobody is talking about. The Refineries Are Dark And Cannot Restart Quickly Drone and missile strikes hit refineries across six countries in less than one week. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura processing 550,000 barrels per day is offline. Qatar's Ras Laffan the world's largest LNG facility declared force majeure. UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait refineries all dark. In normal peacetime a planned shutdown takes 1 to 2 weeks to restart. A missile attack is completely different. Structural damage to pipes, valves and storage tanks requires full physical inspection. Safety certifications reissued. Insurance renegotiated from scratch. Workers returning to a site recently under attack. Conservative restart timeline: 3 to 6 months. Severe damage: 6 to 12 months. Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow these refineries cannot produce immediately. The clock on repairs started the moment the first missile landed. Emergency Reserves Are Buying Weeks Not Months The IEA released 400 million barrels. The largest coordinated emergency release in history. Japan alone released 80 million barrels. Germany, Austria and the EU all tapping reserves simultaneously. At 15 million barrels per day of lost supply that release buys exactly 26 days. Less than one month. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is already depleted after record releases in 2022. The buffer is thinner than it looks on paper. Iran's IRGC sent Washington a direct message this week. "If you can tolerate oil above $200 per barrel. Continue this game." The Bottom Line Three compounding problems happening simultaneously. Hormuz closed. Six countries of refineries dark with 3 to 12 month restart timelines. Emergency reserves lasting weeks not months. The market priced in a quick resolution. Refinery damage does not care about ceasefires. It cares about engineering timelines. That is the part the oil price chart is not showing you yet.