Fertility is collapsing all around the world, not just in the developed West: - Mexico now has lower fertility than the US (even non-Hispanic whites!). - Arab-Israeli fertility is now lower than that of Jewish Israelis. - For first time in 200 years, rich people are having MORE kids than poor. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (@JesusFerna7026) sat down with me and @pietergaricano to talk about the economics of the fertility collapse, why education can be such a curse for birth rates, why the collapse is happening almost as much in the Muslim and developing worlds as in the rich world, and why so many attempts to address it fail. We also discuss 'no regrets' policies that could help: clearer data for students about the value (or not) of college degrees; lotteries for admissions to the top universities; subsidies for third or fourth children; and, of course, bigger, nicer and more plentiful housing. Listen now. Links below. 0:07:48 Japan’s GDP output per worker vs. per capita 0:16:21 The debt paradox: Why are East Asian bonds still cheap despite demographic decline? 0:24:37 Fertility is falling faster in Mexico than the US 0:34:00 The rapid fall of TFRs across the Muslim world 0:42:11 Zero-to-one versus two-to-three children 0:51:00 A ‘no-regrets’ policy for fertility and welfare 0:55:48 The education trap 1:07:31 The grim returns on certain college degrees 1:11:46 Why policies must incentivize the third child, not the first.
