Capital Consigliere

2.1K posts

Capital Consigliere banner
Capital Consigliere

Capital Consigliere

@Networthknowing

buy side PM. i tweet about markets.

Katılım Şubat 2015
335 Takip Edilen518 Takipçiler
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
Next logical play after $AEHR would be OSATs? Got some $AMKR and $ASX. Of course still got some $TSM for CoWoS exposure. There could be a bit of a lag for the OSATs, but I think TSM's CoWoS overflow has to go somewhere right? AEHRs results kind of proved that? Me thinking out loud. Have some decent exposure here
English
0
0
0
21
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
Packaging/testing/burn-in/assembly names going to have monster quarters for quite some time. Have to remember there is a bit of lag at every part of the supply chain as it takes time for foundries/IDMs to build out capacity. I think it's these stocks time to shine as displayed by $AEHR.
English
0
0
0
58
bryan
bryan@BryzonX·
$SPY weekly close just below ATH with AI weakness If it isn’t obvious already, it’s time to extend your horizon The most unfavorable sectors will lead the second leg of this bull market Find stocks that have been basing out, defending new lows and have secondary tailwinds from AI Do this and you will outperform 2H 26’
bryan@BryzonX

Coming off one of the largest rebalancing quarters in quite some time These funds are sitting on massive profits and most will not be looking to reinvest those into another speculative sector $SPY breaking out is very telling

English
10
3
42
16.5K
GURGAVIN
GURGAVIN@gurgavin·
ARITZIA REPORTED EARNINGS YESTERDAY REVENUE UP 43% 📈 COMP SALES UP 35%📈 DIGITAL REVENUE UP 56%📈 US REVENUE UP 55%📈 PROFIT PER SHARE UP 96%📈 ONE OF THE BEST GROWTH STORIES IN CANADA CURRENTLY 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦 $ATZ
GURGAVIN tweet media
English
41
35
746
147.8K
Eric Jhonsa
Eric Jhonsa@EricJhonsa·
I'll be in Austin in November for @TomorrowXSummit. Will be cool to meet up with a lot of the people I've followed/interacted with on here.
Eric Jhonsa tweet media
English
7
0
39
6K
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
@Stonk_Sinatra Got this one wrong lol. Thought it was a skinny beat and wasn’t gonna be enough. I think market honed in on that 35% SSS growth #
English
0
0
0
10
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
Expect $ATZ.TO to be down on these results tomorrow
English
3
0
4
1.5K
Negligible Capital
Negligible Capital@negligible_cap·
I wake up and suddenly everyone’s a $META AI bull. If only Zuck knew all it would take was a few X posts and some kind words from SA to flip the narrative. Suppose we’ll be seeing more of Zuck on X. Anyways $META is now realistically a great long headed into earnings in my view but we’ll see where the narrative stands in a couple weeks / if they’re rewarded for raising capex and seeing ROI
English
14
5
185
17.6K
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
*Queue the $META equity issuance anytime now*
English
0
0
0
81
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
@taketheLearly Magnitude of the beat is quite small relative to prior blowout quarters we’ve seen. Stock is priced pretty close to perfection I’d say.
English
0
0
0
73
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
I believe the $BE short report is pretty much a nothing burger. Argument is that a large part of Scandium supply comes from China and the Chinese could turn off the taps any time they wanted. With Scandium being a critical rare earth in BE fuel cells this could hurt supply growth. My view is, isn’t this the case for many American companies? Like what if Foxconn just decided one day they were gonna stop manufacturing iPhones. Apple would be screwed. Just because China is a key supplier doesn’t mean the stock is a short. Should I go and short $NVDA because $TSM makes 100% of their GPUs and they may decide to stop supplying them? Hell no, that’s just silly. Don’t understand it
English
0
1
1
202
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
Narrative changing ever so slightly on $META ?
English
0
0
1
182
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
JPM raising CoWoS capacity further at $TSM and have it growing faster than the OSATs ($AMKR $ASX).
English
0
0
0
112
Nick Dorsey
Nick Dorsey@Midnight_Captl·
#NewProfilePic I’ve decided to change my name and Pfp to myself (I’ll be keeping the handle @Midnight_Captl) I want to take my platform to the next level in the ecosystem, and presenting myself in this way is an important step for me to achieve that Please allow me to reintroduce myself, my name is Nick Dorsey. I started my career at General Mills in Minnesota (where I’m from). I left and moved across the country (MN to SF) to become strategic sourcing manager at Apple, and I’ve been producing research on the AI and Semiconductors space for the past 2.5 years here on 𝕏 after that I have a wife and a 10 month old baby girl named Mila and I live in the Bay Area. If you’re local and want to meet up, send me a DM, I want to meet more people in the industry 😊 If you’ve been following me for a while, thank you so much for engaging with me and helping me grow. It’s been a blast so far, and I’m excited about what’s to come next with my journey
Nick Dorsey tweet media
English
33
2
165
34.6K
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
I am inching closer to reducing exposure to the chip companies and increasing exposure to memory. Competition is heating up in the training and inference market. $NVDA once had close to 100% share but that number is slowly being eroded. Think about it. All their customers are building there own hardware, there are now several startups in inference (see Groq, CRBS, Etched), Huawei is dominating China and will go abroad. My point being is that competition has heated up so rapidly that it is hard to pick a long term winner. Especially as compute pricing gets eroded by competition. Conversely, now with more competition and more viable product offerings across the ecosystem, who stands to benefit the most? It's Memory. $MU $DRAM It's sort of the $TSM approach. They don't care who wins. As long as demand is strong, they will do well. Memory being a core input into every single AI chip stands to benefit the most as the number of market participants increases. Which evidently, seems like where we are heading.
English
0
1
0
121
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
Its not about the cost. The labs are giving away free tokens so they can steal the startups IP. You have to ask, why are the labs giving out free tokens if demand is insatiable? Sounds great on the surface right? Put in all your data, workflows, and IP into Anthropic and get massive intelligence output, for free. However, the labs aren't dumb. They want access to all of your IP, layer over their latest model to re-create your workflow/application/product and then just re-market it as "Claude Finance" or "Claude HR" for a fraction of the price. The labs are going to become the "everything" app of the future. My guard instantly goes up when I hear any "free" offering like this, especially in this case, where demand is supposedly outstripping supply. Satya talked about this last month, and Karp last week. Enterprises need to own the model, workflow, and data/IP to have control over there own destiny. A world where any business pours all there data into one of the labs, is one where you are simply digging your own grave and handing over the keys to the labs.
amit@amitisinvesting

Man...these token costs are starting to seriously become an issue. Yes, companies want to generate as many useful tokens as possible, but they really don't want to pay for them if open-source alternatives exist. Anthropic and OpenAI are starting to realize the reality of this and have started to give out as much free compute as they can in order to lock startups into using their models over others, as per the WSJ. This is probably a necessary thing to do for these model companies and they have capital to subsidize giving away the compute, but it also speaks to how serious the wars for tokens are becoming. As both OpenAI and Anthropic get ready to go public, they need more levers for growth and it feels like rev-sharing with many of the companies they work with, or some version of sharing in the upside in exchange for compute, may be part of the way they lock people into their models so that they don't go the cheaper route for tokens. Or, they try to drive token costs down further and find their margin in different areas, but more and more companies are questioning how much they should be paying for tokens.

English
0
0
0
135
Capital Consigliere
Capital Consigliere@Networthknowing·
@bubbleboi You wanna make money or sound smart? Who cares if memory is a commod? You had a situation where D>S for an oligopoly market and the group ripped.
English
0
0
2
914
bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
By the way I am not phased by the market going down at all. DRAM & Neolabs were always where there was the most leverage in the system (albeit leveraged differently). Micron has higher margins than Nvidia by adding zero value. The whole dram cartel is adding incremental capacity (not enough to meet demand). CXMT might not be flooding the market with supply but they are softening the bid of the incremental buyer (China). I never was long the dram names because why would I base an entire investment thesis on commodity exploitation? Also why play that game when there is so much more exciting differentiated companies and innovations in networking, interconnects, flash memory, advanced packaging, cooling etc. these are all things that are fundamentally changing our lives. Making money off of pumps and dumps, exploitation, etc etc. typically lead to you eventually being the one being hurt, exploited, and dumped. I pray that Jukan is ok and won’t have to sell themselves into indentured servitude to pay back their debt. Good luck!
English
57
15
666
101.1K

Keşfet

@NeapoILLtan @BryzonX @gurgavin @EricJhonsa @TomorrowXSummit @Stonk_Sinatra @negligible_cap @taketheLearly