Next 100 Baggers

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Next 100 Baggers

Next 100 Baggers

@Next100Baggers

Engineer & ex-commodity trader | Hunting 10–100X SMID caps before Wall St | Investing full-time since ’12 | Free deep dives👇 Educational research only. NFA.

Katılım Şubat 2024
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
“Play the market is not what you do, you buy good companies you understand.” Made my day hearing Lynch again. Own only what you can explain in 60s. Don’t wait for “the crash” Pay sane prices for real growers. Sell on thesis break, not noise. Still true in 2025.
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@TheLongInvest this isn’t about “needing wave 5”… it’s about whether they can push operating margins from 5% toward low teens while keeping growth intact if they do, $40 won’t need Elliott waves to justify it if they don’t, no wave count saves you
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
$HIMS chart we shared yesterday and today in our group are the same We can’t get to $40 unless we have 5 wave This is an opportunity to add
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
Oil is the headline. Fertilizer is the trade. The real Hormuz trade is fertilizer. 35% of global urea exports are trapped behind a naval blockade. Prices already ripped 50% since February, $482 to $720 a ton. Spring planting is underway. Farmers can't wait. $CF
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

The entire world is watching oil: Google search interest for "price of oil" spiked to its highest level on record in data going back to 2004. This exceeds the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and 2008 Financial Crisis peaks by +300%. This is also +235% higher than the 2020 pandemic surge when oil prices briefly went negative. Similarly, search interest for "Strait of Hormuz" soared to an all-time high. This surpasses June 2025 levels by +300%, when the 12-Day War between Israel and Iran raised fears about a Hormuz closure. The global energy crisis is in the spotlight.

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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
Feels more like the 70s every day. Oil just ripped above $110. Most of the market is trading this like an energy pop. I don’t see it that way. The part that matters is what comes after: freight, input costs, inflation psychology then pressure on multiples. That’s the old playbook
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

This is absolutely insane: US oil futures are now on track to rise +60% this month, marking their largest monthly gain in history. This follows the +34.5% gain recorded last week, the largest weekly gain on record in data going back to 1982. We are all witnessing history.

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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@ChrisCamillo The money usually sticks to the bottlenecks: GPUs, networking, HBM, packaging, power/cooling and the physical buildout. My “toll booth” watchlist: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $ANET $MRVL $MU $VRT $ETN $PWR
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Chris Camillo
Chris Camillo@ChrisCamillo·
OAI acquiring the Openclaw founder is a nice talent pickup, but every frontier lab will soon ship its agentic stack. The next compute supercycle is imminent. You already know who the winners will be when it hits.
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
Node headlines are fine, but $TSM ’s own mix is already telling you who has the leverage. Last quarter they said 3nm was 28% of wafer revenue and leading-edge is basically three-quarters. $AMD already has EPYC “Venice” silicon up on TSMC N2. The “premium” isn’t just wafers anymore. Packaging is turning into its own toll booth, and that’s where AI supply has been gating.
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Beth Kindig
Beth Kindig@Beth_Kindig·
As chips migrate to advanced nodes -- such as Nvidia’s Rubin moving to 3nm and AMD building GPUs and CPUs on 2nm -- TSMC $TSM stands to benefit from rising pricing power, as these nodes command significant wafer premiums in exchange for material performance and power efficiency gains. $NVDA $AMD io-fund.com/ai-stocks/futu…
Beth Kindig tweet media
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
SWIFT is the plumbing, not a vibes poll. Dollar just printed a bit over 50% of cross-border transaction value in December, and that’s basically the scoreboard in moments when funding, collateral, and risk management matter. The “dedollarization” story is real in pockets but the part investors get wrong is timing: you don’t break the dollar by doing a few more RMB trades, you break it when there’s a credible alternative for deep collateral and global balance sheet plumbing.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
The US Dollar continues to lead all global transactions: The US Dollar's portion of international transactions via SWIFT is up to 50.5%, the highest since 2023. This percentage is up +11.6 points over the last 4 years. The Euro remains in 2nd place at 21.9%, followed by the British Pound, at 6.7%, the Canadian Dollar, at 3.4%, and the Japanese Yen, at 3.4%. By comparison, the Chinese Yuan is just 2.7%, roughly unchanged over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, SWIFT processed 13.4 billion trade instructions in 2024, up from 11.9 billion in 2023. The US Dollar's position in international finance remains strong.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
DRAM is a real choke point, but it’s not the only thing gating AI data centers. Nvidia has been pretty blunt that advanced packaging capacity has been the bottleneck, and SK hynix has said its DRAM, NAND, and HBM capacity for next year is already sold out, with customers even booking 2026 early. Then you hit the unsexy stuff, transformers, switchgear, grid hookups. That’s why I keep a basket mindset here: $MU $SKHHY $TSM $ASX $AVGO $ANET $VRT $ETN $PWR
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
One nuance people miss: a chunk of the “jump” is accounting mix (leases) plus memory price inflation showing up as higher capex dollars, even if unit volume doesn’t scale one for one.  Focus on the bottlenecks that don’t lie, power gear, cooling, networking, memory. $ETN $HUBB $PWR $HUBB $PWR $VRT $ANET
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Big Tech CapEx is exploding: The combined CapEx of Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Microsoft, $MSFT, is expected to jump +70% YoY, to a record $610 billion in 2026. This is nearly 3 TIMES the $217 billion spent in 2024 and more than 4 TIMES 2023 levels. Amazon leads with $200 billion in planned spending, followed by Alphabet at $180 billion, Meta at $125 billion, and Microsoft at $105 billion. Each company is expected to spend nearly as much in 2026 alone as they did in the previous 2 years combined, or more. All 4 would individually break the record for the highest annual CapEx spent by a single company over the last 10 years. The AI infrastructure rush is unprecedented.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@Beth_Kindig At a $134B valuation you’re basically paying a mid 20s revenue multiple on run rate, so the bar is staying cash flow positive while scaling AI workloads. Also worth saying out loud: this is a win for the clouds too, Databricks still burns a lot of compute on $MSFT and $AMZN
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Beth Kindig
Beth Kindig@Beth_Kindig·
Databricks completed a $7 billion funding round, including $5 billion in equity and $2 billion in debt, valuing the firm at $134 billion. Databricks added that its revenue run rate surpassed $5.4 billion, up 65% YoY, with AI products reaching a $1.4 billion run rate. $SNOW $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@Beth_Kindig Power queues are the new GPU queues. The “winners” are the boring parts of the stack that already have power or sell the hardware and labor to get it connected. $ETN $ABB $SIEGY $SBGSY $GEV $VRT $EQIX $DLR $IRM
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Beth Kindig
Beth Kindig@Beth_Kindig·
Power grid delays are said to be challenging Amazon’s $AMZN data center expansion in Europe, with company executives saying that grid connection timelines, which could span 7 years, are one of the biggest factors in its data center investment plans. $MSFT $GOOG $NVDA
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@oguzerkan She’s basically a thematic futurist + venture style allocator, not a compounding style investor. $ARKK
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@themotleyfool I’d swing at $DAVE They’re exiting 2025 with revenue in the mid $500M range and adjusted EBITDA above $200M, while credit delinquencies are running around 2%. Still small enough that real scale changes everything.
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The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool@themotleyfool·
If you had to put 50% of your net worth into ONE company for 10 years, which one?
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@TheLongInvest Value to me is who can self-fund the AI build. $AMZN printed about $140B operating cash flow in 2025, but trailing FCF is about $11B because capex jumped into AI. $TSM ran about 60% gross margin in 2025. $ASML ended 2025 with about €39B backlog.
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
What positions do you feel are offering value right now for long term?
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
The “15x 2027” story only works if you buy the $14 EPS number. Most consensus trackers I follow are closer to $9 to $10 for 2027, so you’re really paying low 20s on that year. The levers are AWS profit and ads, and the wild card is the AI capex bill: $AMZN is talking about $200B of capex in 2026.
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
Coding is the cleanest near term ROI, agreed. It’s already real spend too: $MSFT just said 15 million paid Copilot seats and over four million paid GitHub Copilot subscribers. And it’s not only devs, same call said Dragon Copilot documented 21 million patient encounters in the quarter. Coding is the wedge because it’s measurable and easy to price per seat, but the durable dollars pool where distribution sits. Models will get swapped, workflows won’t.
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
I think the medium term returns from AI can come solely from coding. LLMs may completely automate coding while not being able to develop much further in other tasks. Increasing focus of big AI labs on coding may be signalling this. We are yet to see solid ROI in other fields.
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc

Got to give it to OpenAI. They know how to respond. AI coding usage is going ballistic, the market is underestimating AI, and the demand at the hyperscalers.

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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
Natural gas has always been the original “meme” market. Henry Hub’s daily price in 2025 ranged from $2 to $10, so these face ripping moves are basically the job description. Big thing people miss: a lot of $NATGAS exposure is really front month futures + constant rolling, so the curve (contango vs backwardation) can matter as much as the spot headline.
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
$NATGAS trading like a meme stonk lately. But then again, what isn’t in the commodity space…
Heisenberg tweet media
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
@TheLongInvest Silver isn’t a seatbelt. It’s a small, levered market, it whipsaws. Also, circuit breakers are for stocks. In futures you get price limits and margin calls. Late Dec, CME raised margins and silver still dropped about 8% in a day. Size it like a trade, not a hedge.
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The Long Investor
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest·
Silver ‘Because this can drop -30% within a few sessions and that will hurt’ Over one session*
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest

SILVER I don’t know who needs to hear this but I feel responsible for bringing Silver to your attention at $24 and explaining how having this safe haven will protect your portfolio It has exceeded our expectations (clearly) But let’s be realistic now If you are sitting on +350% profits in less than 2 years here then trimming after this parabolic move and overbought indications is the move to make Because this can drop -30% within a few sessions and that will hurt Rotation into another safe haven now is the move

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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
The real leverage sits with the constrained suppliers (think $MU plus the big Asian memory names). For the GPU stack, higher DRAM prices matter less than whether HBM supply and packaging stay tight enough to cap shipments. The only thing I’d fade is the idea this is “linear” for three years. Memory still turns on capex discipline.
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Beth Kindig
Beth Kindig@Beth_Kindig·
By 2027, TrendForce projects the memory market to rise another 53% YoY to $842.7 billion, again led by DRAM with growth of 65% YoY to $667 billion. This would represent approximately 7X growth in DRAM revenue from 2024’s $95.9 billion. $MU $AMD $NVDA $AVGO
Beth Kindig@Beth_Kindig

TrendForce projects that the global memory market could rise ~134% YoY in 2026 to $551.6 billion, with DRAM revenue up 144% to $404.3 billion on strong CSP demand, tight DRAM supply and strong price hikes. $MU $AMD $NVDA $AVGO

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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
They’re guiding 2026 sales up to €39B, and the CEO explicitly tied the order step up to stronger “AI related” demand expectations from customers. This is fabs reserving scarce tool capacity, not a one week “AI momentum” chart. What I’m watching next is EUV shipment cadence, High NA ramp execution, and how export rules shape China demand. $ASML
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
AI demand shows no signs of slowing: ASML Holding, $ASML, sales rose +16% YoY in 2025 to a record €32.7 billion. This marks the 13th consecutive annual increase. ASML, Europe’s most valuable firm, is the sole producer of lithography machines essential for making advanced semiconductors. The company supplies all leading chip manufacturers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, $TSM, and Intel, $INTC, and its machines are essential for producing Nvidia, $NVDA, AI chips. In Q4 2025 alone, the company’s bookings surged to a record €13.2 billion, driven by rising AI chip demand. ASML expects revenue to rise as high as €39 billion this year. AI-fueled momentum is accelerating.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Next 100 Baggers
Next 100 Baggers@Next100Baggers·
Gold is double digits off the top. Silver almost 30% off. That was the “puppet chair, rates to zero” crowd learning names matter. Trump says he’ll nominate Kevin Warsh for Fed chair. Warsh: “We need regime change at the FED”, the GOAT Druckenmiller’s partner at Duquesne and openly in the “gov spending + printing fuels inflation” camp. Not exactly Mr. Easy Money. Liquidity vibes just flipped. Rotation + chop. Meme stuff doesn’t love that. $DOGE $GLD $SLV
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Keşfet

@TheLongInvest @ChrisCamillo @Beth_Kindig @oguzerkan @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano