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7250 support, 7295 resistance. AMD beat after close, ARM tonight. Wednesday's SPX 0DTE setup. Wednesday May 6 2026 | SPX 7259.22 SPX closed 7259.22 Tuesday, up 58 points. Tagged 7273.26 intraday, just shy of one point above the previous all time high. Opened at the day low and moved higher all session. Trump posted Tuesday evening on Truth Social that Project Freedom is paused, said great progress on a complete and final agreement with Iran. Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed the ceasefire holds. Brent dropped 3 percent to 110, WTI dropped over 3 percent below 103. AMD beat after the close, EPS 1.37 vs 1.28, revenue 10.25 billion vs 9.89 billion, Q2 guidance well ahead, stock up 6 percent in extended. Downside protection (put hedges) bought over the weekend lost value as vol crushed. VIX dropped 5 percent to 17.38. Wednesday brings ADP and three Fed speakers. THE NUMBERS SPX Close: 7259.22 | Tuesday Range: 7233.62 / 7273.26 VIX: 17.38 | VIX9D: 14.64 | VVIX: 95.3 (suppressed, 1.0 sigma below 30d avg) Daily 1SD: +/- 67 (7192 to 7326) Weekly 1SD: +/- 175 (7084 to 7434) ATR: +/- 72.5 pts Range: 7210 to 7280 (70 points wide) Straddle Wed 5/6: +/- 40 (7220 to 7300) Straddle Thu 5/7: +/- 55 (7205 to 7315) Straddle Fri 5/8: +/- 70 (7190 to 7330) Straddle Fri 5/15 OPEX: +/- 125 (7135 to 7385) ECONOMIC EVENTS, WEDNESDAY 5/6 07:00 AM ET. MBA Mortgage Applications, 30 Year Rate, Refinance Index 08:15 AM ET. ADP Employment Change (Apr) 08:30 AM ET. Treasury Refunding Announcement 09:30 AM ET. FED speaker Musalem 10:30 AM ET. EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks 01:00 PM ET. FED speaker Goolsbee 01:30 PM ET. FED speaker Hammack ADP at 8:15am is the main morning event. Comes ahead of NFP Friday. Three Fed speakers spread through the day, Musalem at 9:30am, Goolsbee at 1pm, Hammack at 1:30pm. EIA energy data at 10:30am carries extra weight given the Iran ceasefire just confirmed and oil dropped 3 percent Tuesday. EARNINGS, WEDNESDAY 5/6 (Implied Moves) Before market open: DIS (5.54%), UBER (6.15%), NVO (6.21%), CDW (6.70%), KHC (3.35%), EOG (5.71%), JCI (6.13%), GPN (8.66%), APO (7.88%), OSCR (10.44%), RXRX (8.99%), HUT (9.32%), EVTL (21.77%) After market close: ARM (9.69%), APP (11.38%), FTNT (8.90%), SNAP (12.70%), BYND (25.09%), CORZ (9.56%), IONQ (10.92%), RDW (12.04%), RUN (14.13%), COHR (11.73%), ARRY (17.05%), FSLY (18.48%), CDE (7.68%), CLOV (12.06%), CF (8.94%), BROS (12.94%), WHR (10.09%) DIS, UBER, and NVO are the big pre market index movers. ARM is the headline name after close. ARM is a chip designer, lots of focus on data center licensing and AI chip designs. APP and SNAP are the AdTech and social media reads. FTNT is the cybersecurity name. EOG is the oil and gas name trading on what they say about higher oil prices. BROS and WHR are the consumer reads. THE VOL PICTURE VIX dropped 0.91 points Tuesday on a 0.81 percent SPX rally. VIX9D 14.64 and VVIX 95.3 sit suppressed. The internals tell the story. Sticky Strike (0.88), Parallel Shift +0.14, Put Skew (0.17), Call Skew +0.02, Downside Convexity 0.00, Upside Convexity (0.02). Total (0.91) matches the VIX delta exactly. Sticky Strike crush dominated. Vol at fixed strikes got hammered as price rallied. Classic relief rally pattern. Put hedges got partially sold, downside protection mildly reduced. Hedgers cut their positions but stayed protected. They stopped adding. Downside protection still costs more than upside protection. The 5/6 options show the 7155 strike at 19.89 percent volatility against the 7320 strike at 11.69 percent. Almost 8 percentage points difference across a 165 point range. Traders are still paying extra for downside puts even after the rally. VVIX 95.3 stays low. No panic priced in. Front month vol got crushed but back month barely moved. Selling premium still works if the range holds. WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY SPX opened 7233.62 Tuesday, gapped up about 33 points from Monday's close at 7200.75. Open was the low for the day. The Sunday tape carried Trump's Project Freedom announcement and Monday's Iran escalation had sold the index to 7174 intraday. Tuesday started with the question of whether the ceasefire would hold or break. The market got its answer through the day. Defense Secretary Hegseth said at a Pentagon press conference that the ceasefire remains in place despite the strait tensions. Secretary of State Rubio said the same thing from the White House. Oil prices retreated, Brent dropped from Monday's spike back to around 110, down 3 percent on the session. WTI fell below 103, down over 3 percent. The relief tape was on. Tuesday evening Trump posted on Truth Social that Project Freedom is paused, citing great progress on a complete and final agreement with Iran. He said the operation will be paused for a short period to let the agreement get finalized. SPX climbed steadily through the session, tagged 7273.26 in the afternoon, just shy of one point above the previous all time high, then drifted back to close 7259.22, up 58 points or 0.81 percent. Day low held the open at 7233.62. Nasdaq made a fresh all time high, up 1.03 percent. Dow up 0.73 percent. Russell 2000 up 1.75 percent led the day. Semis ripped. Intel up 12.92 percent on Bloomberg report Apple is exploring chip making in the US using Intel and Samsung. Micron up 10.81 percent on Fitch credit upgrade BBB to BBB plus and the memory chip boom. The PHLX Semiconductor index made fresh highs. Pre market earnings showed mixed reactions. PFE in line. SHOP fell 15.62 percent on weak guidance. PYPL got bid. DOCN ripped 40 percent on a strong beat. CIFR up 23 percent. ETN, RACE both reaffirmed guidance. After the close: AMD beat top and bottom, EPS 1.37 vs 1.28 estimate, revenue 10.25 billion vs 9.89 billion estimate. Q2 guidance 10.9 to 11.5 billion vs 10.52 billion expected. Data center revenue 5.8 billion up 57 percent year over year. Stock up 6 percent in extended trading. ANET, SMCI, ALAB, MSTR, OXY, DVN all reported. Palantir fell 6.93 percent on the day despite a beat, classic sell the news. SHOP closed down 15.62 percent on the day, biggest decliner among large cap names. Macro data Tuesday: ISM Services PMI 54.0 vs 53.7 forecast, slightly hot. JOLTs job openings 6.87 million vs 6.85 million expected, basically in line. Hiring rate improved to 3.5 percent, best since May 2024. Layoffs ticked up to 1.9 million from 1.7 million. US trade deficit grew 4.4 percent to 60.3 billion in March. Other news. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned at a financial services event that some software companies will completely go bust if they do not adapt to AI. ServiceNow down 39 percent year to date, Snowflake down 35 percent, Microsoft down 15 percent. The SaaS pain continues. SEC proposed letting public companies report earnings twice a year instead of quarterly, ending a 55 year old rule. SpaceX confidentially filed for IPO with potential 1.75 trillion valuation, could list as soon as June. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR WEDNESDAY 7260 is the sticky level today. Strong wall on the call side and strong support on the put side, both books defending. Spot 7259.22 sits right on this level. Very different from Tuesday where 7200 was contested with put fuel below. Today both books agree on 7260. Above spot has heavy resistance levels stacked close together. 7270 is light fuel up, then 7275 is heavy resistance. 7285 is more fuel up, 7295 is heavy resistance, 7305 is resistance above that. The upside has to push through one resistance level after another. The first clean acceleration zone is 7320 which sits at the edge of the daily range. 7300 is the day straddle high and also has light put side support, so dealers want to defend that level. Below spot has multiple support levels stacked underneath. 7250 is the first strong support, both call and put positioning confirm it. 7230 has fuel down character on both sides, this is where a slide would start if 7250 fails. 7225 is the next support, 7220 is major support. 7210 is heavy fuel down which would accelerate the move lower if 7220 breaks. 7200 is strong support below that. Below 7200 the support levels get thin for the day. The Iran headlines decide the tone. Trump paused the Hormuz operation Tuesday and the ceasefire is holding. Iran's President Pezeshkian pushed back on what he called maximum pressure but the talks are advancing. Trump's Beijing trip is next week and China has been pushing for the strait to reopen. That gives him reason to keep the ceasefire in place. Bad news risk is now lower than Monday but not zero. ADP at 8:15am is the morning event. A strong number pushes yields higher, a weak number confirms the labor cooling story before NFP Friday. Three Fed speakers through the day. Musalem 9:30am, Goolsbee 1pm, Hammack 1:30pm. None are typically market moving but watch for any commentary on the dissent picture from the prior FOMC. After close earnings is heavy. ARM is the headline AI chip name reporting after AMD's strong beat last night. APP, SNAP, FTNT, DASH all report. ARM guidance on AI chip designs and licensing royalties matters most for the semis tape. Bottom line. 7260 is the sticky pin with both books confirming. 7300 is the upside cap with the day straddle high also acting as a put side magnet. 7220 is the downside major support and 7210 is the breakdown fuel. The range is wider than Tuesday at 70 points, but walls break 40 percent more often this week given the macro stack ahead. Selling premium works if the range holds. Anyone short upside calls is fine until 7295 breaks. Anyone short downside puts has Iran risk priced lower than Monday. THE LEVELS 🔴 7305 wall above straddle 🔴 7295 heavy resistance ⚡ 7285 fuel up 🔴 7275 heavy resistance ⚡ 7270 fuel up 🟡 7260 Tuesday close, sticky pin, both sides defend 🟢 7250 strong support, first stop down ⚡ 7230 confirmed fuel down, breakdown trigger 🟢 7225 support 🟢 7220 major support ⚡ 7210 major fuel down accelerator 🟢 7200 strong support 🟢 7190 support at edge IF THEN 🔼 IF SPX holds 7260 THEN 7275 -> 7295 7275 is heavy resistance and likely caps. 7295 is heavy resistance and the day straddle high, expected to hold and reject. Dealers defend. 🔼 IF SPX clears 7295 THEN 7300 -> 7305 Above the straddle. 7305 is the upside cap. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7260 THEN 7250 -> 7230 -> 7220 -> 7210 -> 7200 7250 is the first strong support and likely holds. 7220 is major support, expected to hold and bounce. 7200 is the strong floor below if 7220 fails. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7200 Below the straddle low. Range expands. NEXT DAY PREVIEW Thursday May 7 brings Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labour Costs at 8:30am. Consumer Inflation Expectations at 11am. FED speaker Hammack again at 2:05pm. FED speaker Williams at 3:30pm. CRWV, TTD, COIN, AFRM after market close. MCD and DDOG before market open. Thursday ceiling 7250 falling, floor 7230. Thursday straddle plus or minus 55. FRIDAY PREVIEW Friday is NFP. FED speaker Cook at 5:45am. NFP and Average Hourly Earnings at 8:30am. Michigan Sentiment at 10am. Four FED speakers at 7:30pm: Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee, Waller. Consensus calls for 60K jobs versus prior 178K, unemployment holding 4.3 percent. Friday ceiling 7300, floor 7250. Friday straddle plus or minus 70. 5/15 weekly OPEX straddle plus or minus 125 (7135 to 7385). Captures NFP and the full following week. Selling premium Wednesday into Friday still works if the range holds. The 7260 strike volatility is 13.44 percent for Wednesday and 13.46 percent for Friday NFP, essentially flat. Front end vol got crushed across the week after the Iran ceasefire confirmation. Iran risk is lower now that talks are advancing but not zero. 7250 to 7300 is the cleanest near term envelope. RULES 1. SPX closed at the 7260 sticky pin. Both call and put sides defend the level. Range 7210 to 7280, 70 points wide. 2. 7260 is the line. Strong wall on calls, strong support on puts, both books agree. 3. 7250 is the first strong support. 7220 is the major support below. 4. 7295 is heavy resistance and the day straddle high. 7305 is the upside cap. 5. Iran ceasefire holding. Trump paused Project Freedom citing progress on talks. Brent down 3 percent, WTI down over 3 percent. 6. ADP 8:15am is the morning data. Three Fed speakers through the day. Watch ARM after close as the AI chip continuation. 7. AMD beat after close last night, stock up 6 percent in extended. Sets a constructive tone for the chip tape into Wednesday. 8. VVIX 95.3 stays low. No panic priced in. Sticky Strike crush of 0.88 yesterday signaled hedgers took chips off after Monday's Iran scare. 9. Heavy data week. Walls break 40 percent more often than normal. Reduce size into Friday NFP. Selling premium works if the range holds. Iran headlines lower probability now but still the wild card. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit @unusual_whales

$SPX - Most likely we may pin between 7258 - 7268 ? What you think ?

$SPX - Looks like slow grind up day! Watch closely. So far 7250 acting as good support.

6K credit put spread appeared at 7170/7165. Size is defending 7170. Range 7170 to 7285, mid 7227. 7230 +/- 10 into market close ? $SPX #SPX #0DTE #SPXOptions #OptionsTrading #GEX

Whale update: 10K at 7285/7290, 8K+ at 7120/7125. Range is set. Need to see how they plays out. All depends on Jolts print. Watch out! $SPX #SPX #0DTE #SPXOptions #OptionsTrading #GEX

ISM + JOLTS at 10am. AMD after the bell. The narrative flips bearish only below 7180. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit #SPY

$SPX 7200 contested 🔴 7245 caps 🟢 7155 holds⚡ Iran tape live + AMD/ANET after close Tuesday May 5 2026 | SPX 7200.75 SPX closed 7200.75 Monday, down 29 points. Opened 7228.38, tagged 7244.54, then the Iran headlines hit and SPX dropped to 7174.12 before recovering to close back at 7200. The ceasefire is over. UAE air defenses engaged 19 Iranian missiles and drones Monday morning, an Iranian drone hit the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, US Central Command sank six Iranian small boats in the strait, and Trump declined to confirm whether the ceasefire is still in effect. Brent ripped, gas prices are now up nearly 50 percent since the war started February 28. Hedgers bought protection Friday into Monday before the news broke. Tuesday brings the heaviest data and earnings day of the week. THE NUMBERS SPX Close: 7200.75 | Monday Range: 7174.12 / 7244.54 VIX: 18.29 | VIX9D: 16.60 | VVIX: 98.3 (suppressed, 0.7 sigma below 30d avg 107.4) Daily 1SD: +/- 75 (7126 to 7276) Weekly 1SD: +/- 183 (7018 to 7384) ATR: +/- 54.2 pts Chop Zone: 7170 to 7220 (50 points wide, tightest of the week) Straddle Tue 5/5: +/- 45 (7155 to 7245) Straddle Wed 5/6: +/- 60 (7140 to 7260) Straddle Thu 5/7: +/- 75 (7125 to 7275) Straddle Fri 5/8: +/- 95 (7105 to 7295) ECONOMIC EVENTS, TUESDAY 5/5 08:30 AM ET. Trade Balance, Imports, Exports 09:45 AM ET. S&P Global PMI Final 10:00 AM ET. ISM Services PMI (cons 53.7), JOLTs Job Openings (cons 6.83M), FED speaker Bowman, New Home Sales 12:30 PM ET. FED speaker Barr 10am hits hardest. ISM Services, JOLTs, and Bowman speech all at the same time. The inflation reading inside ISM Services matters most. Friday's ISM Manufacturing inflation reading printed 84.60, the highest since June 2022. If Services prints hot too, oil-driven inflation gets confirmed and the Fed has a harder time cutting. EARNINGS, TUESDAY 5/5 (Implied Moves) Before market open: PFE (3.65%), SHOP (10.41%), PYPL (7.94%), CIFR (10.66%), KOS (13.75%), FISV (9.03%), DOCN (17.63%), CCJ (7.02%), ET (3.11%), ETN After market close: AMD (7.26%), ANET (8.32%), SMCI (11.45%), ALAB (12.53%), MSTR (6.62%), OXY (4.80%), DVN (6.91%), LCID (10.76%), UPST (12.97%), LITE (11.18%), LUMN (11.68%), TEM (8.82%), JOBY (8.78%), NVTS (14.09%), BBAI (13.26%), CC (9.03%) AMD is the big chip name after close. Watch for any data center or AI guidance. ANET (Arista Networks) is the second key name. ANET sells networking gear that competes with NVDA in data centers. Last week NVDA fell on worries Arista is taking share. ANET earnings will show if those worries are right. SMCI and ALAB are also AI hardware names reporting after close. OXY and DVN are oil and gas names. Both will trade on what they say about higher oil prices and the Iran headlines. THE VOL PICTURE VIX added 1.30 points Friday into Monday on a 0.41 percent SPX move. VIX9D 16.60 and VVIX 98.3 sit suppressed even after the Iran tape. The internals tell the story. Sticky Strike +0.39, Parallel Shift +0.63, Put Skew +0.32, Call Skew (0.19), Downside Convexity +0.30, Upside Convexity (0.15). Total +1.30 matches the VIX delta exactly. Parallel shift dominated. The whole curve lifted. Put protection got bid across the wing while upside calls got faded. That is a clean defensive footprint, not a panic. Hedgers paid for downside even with absolute IV still suppressed. Friday's hedging was small. This time hedgers loaded up more aggressively, getting ready for Iran news and the busy data week. Skew shape held. The 5/5 chain shows 7120 strike at 19.00 percent IV against 7300 strike at 12.01 percent. Almost 7 vol points across a 180 point range. Deep put wing carries the war premium. Call wing trades suppressed. That asymmetry is the cleanest tell that protection bought is downside protection. VVIX 98.3 stays suppressed despite the tape. Vol of vol pinned says no panic priced in, just regime shift. Premium sellers still get paid inside the chop if it holds. WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY Monday opened 7228.38, six points below Friday's close. The Sunday tape carried Trump's Project Freedom announcement, a US naval operation to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent had retreated to 107 overnight as traders bet the operation would unblock traffic rather than escalate. SPX climbed early to 7244.54, just shy of Friday's all time high 7272.52. Then the headlines hit. UAE Defense Ministry confirmed it engaged 19 Iranian missiles and drones. Four cruise missiles inbound, three intercepted, one in the sea. An Iranian drone hit the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, igniting the VTTI petroleum facility jointly owned by Vitol, IFM, and ADNOC TAQA. Three Indian nationals injured. Fujairah is the terminus of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bypass route. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy issued a map claiming expanded control over UAE ports including Fujairah, Khorfakkan, and Umm Al Quwain. The British military reported two cargo vessels ablaze off the UAE. CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper said US helicopters sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships under US protection. An Israeli air defense system deployed in the UAE was confirmed to have helped intercept the missile salvo. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted that the US and UAE should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire. Trump declined to confirm whether the ceasefire is still in effect. UAE schools moved to remote learning Tuesday through Friday. Commercial flights to Dubai and Abu Dhabi turned around midair during the missile alerts. SPX fell to 7174.12 on the Fujairah headlines, broke through the 7180 first catch, tested below 7174 briefly, then recovered back to 7200 into the close. Day low held the lower straddle band by 19 points. Energy was the only meaningful green sector at +0.95 percent. Materials (1.62), Industrials (1.02), Dow lost 557 points or 1.13 percent. Nasdaq held flat thanks to AAPL +3 percent on the China surge from Friday and continued AI momentum. After the close Monday: PLTR posted record Q1 revenue and profit, traded +1.4 percent in extended. PINS revenue 1.01 billion beat, sales +18 percent year over year, narrowed net loss. ON, DUOL, NCLH also reported. GameStop launched a 20 billion dollar hostile bid for eBay at 125 per share, 50/50 cash and stock. EBAY +9 percent in extended. Berkshire Q1 cash pile printed 380 billion under Greg Abel's first quarter as CEO. Buffett at the Saturday meeting said we have never had more people in a gambling mood than now. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TUESDAY 7200 is contested. Light call wall above, heavy put fuel below. Spot is sitting on a fuel pocket, not on a magnet. The 7190 strike carries heavy fuel down on the put side just below spot. Lose 7200 with conviction and the slide accelerates fast through 7190 into the 7180 first catch. Above spot the range is tight. 7220 is contested. 7245 is the strong resistance wall and sits at the day straddle high. If price clears 7245, there are no more sellers until 7260 which is the next resistance. Above 7260, price runs into the 7280 ceiling. If the data prints calm and Iran goes quiet, that upside path opens. If 7245 holds, sellers cap the day and SPX stays in the range. Below spot 7180 is the first strong support, where buyers parked. If 7180 fails, 7165 is the second support. Below 7165 sits 7155, the heaviest support in the chain and the day straddle low. Both call and put books agree 7155 is the line. That is where dealers defend hardest if the Iran headlines get worse. Below 7155 the support thins out to 7130, then 7125 is the deepest support before things break down. The Iran headlines decide the day. The ceasefire is over in practice. The question is whether Tuesday brings more escalation or a step back toward talks. Trump's Beijing trip is next week and China has called for the strait to reopen. That gives him reason to cool things off before the trip. Iran says Project Freedom is a ceasefire violation. Bad news travels fast on the downside given the put fuel at spot. Good news has to clear the 7245 resistance to matter. 10am is the busy hour. ISM Services inflation reading is the most important number. If JOLTs job openings come in below 6.5 million, that adds to the labor cooling story before Friday's jobs report. Bowman speaks at 10am, the first Fed speaker of the week. Barr speaks at 12:30, the second Fed speaker. After close earnings is the busiest of the week. AMD, ANET, SMCI, and ALAB all report — AI hardware names. ANET is the most watched because it tells us if Arista is taking share from NVDA. OXY and DVN report too. Both will trade on what they say about high oil prices. Bottom line. 7200 is contested with put fuel underneath. One bad Iran headline and SPX slides through 7190 fast. 7245 is the upside cap. 7155 is the heaviest support and the day low expected. The range is tight but it is a heavy data week so walls break more often than usual. Sellers of premium win if the range holds. Anyone short downside protection is paying for the Iran risk. Anyone short upside calls is safe until 7245 breaks. THE LEVELS 🔴 7280 hard ceiling ⚡ 7275 fuel up into ceiling 🔴 7260 heavy resistance ⚡ 7250 fuel up if 7245 breaks 🔴 7245 heavy resistance, day high ⚡ 7225 fuel up inside chop 🟡 7220 chop top 🟡 7200 spot, the line, contested with put fuel below ⚡ 7190 fuel down below spot 🟢 7180 strong support, first stop down ⚡ 7175 fuel down accelerator 🟢 7165 strong support, second stop down 🟢 7155 major support, day low ⚡ 7145 fuel down accelerator 🟢 7130 support 🟢 7125 deepest support IF THEN 🔼 IF SPX holds 7200 THEN 7220 -> 7245 7245 is heavy resistance and straddle high. Dealers defend. 🔼 IF SPX clears 7245 THEN 7250 -> 7260 -> 7275 -> 7280 7260 is the second resistance. 7280 is the upside ceiling. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7200 THEN 7190 -> 7180 -> 7175 -> 7165 -> 7155 7180 is the first strong support. 7165 is the second catch. 7155 is the heaviest support and straddle low. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7155 THEN 7145 -> 7130 -> 7125 Below the straddle low. 7125 is the deepest support below. NEXT DAY PREVIEW Wednesday May 6 brings ADP Employment as the NFP preview at 8:15am, Treasury Refunding at 8:30am, FED speaker Musalem at 9:30am, FED speaker Goolsbee at 1pm, FED speaker Hammack at 1:30pm. ARM after market close on the AI semi continuation tape. DIS, UBER, NVO before market open. Wednesday chop opens wider with ceiling 7255, floor 7210, regime tightens to 71 percent. Walls rising vs Tuesday's compression. Wednesday straddle plus or minus 60. REST OF WEEK PREVIEW Thursday brings Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labour Costs at 8:30am, Consumer Inflation Expectations at 11am, FED speaker Hammack again at 2:05pm, FED speaker Williams at 3:30pm. CRWV, TTD, COIN, AFRM after market close. MCD and DDOG before market open. Thursday ceiling 7250 falling, floor 7230, regime 61 percent. Walls compressing again. Thursday straddle plus or minus 75. Friday is NFP. FED speaker Cook at 5:45am, NFP and Average Hourly Earnings at 8:30am, Michigan Sentiment at 10am. Four FED speakers at 7:30pm: Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee, Waller. Consensus calls for 60K jobs versus prior 178K, unemployment holding 4.3 percent. Friday ceiling 7270, floor 7250, regime 53 percent. Friday straddle plus or minus 95. Selling premium Tuesday into Friday still works if the range holds. The 7210 strike IV is 14.17 percent for Tuesday and climbs to 14.91 percent for Friday NFP. Iran is the wild card. If escalation continues, the range widens and walls break more often. 7155 to 7245 is the cleanest range to watch this week. RULES 1. SPX closed 7200, contested. Light call wall above, heavy put fuel below. Range 7170 to 7220 is the tightest of the week, 50 points wide vs weekly 1SD 183 points. 2. 7200 is the trigger. Heavy put fuel at 7190 just below. Lose 7200 and the slide opens. 3. 7180 is the first strong support. 7155 is the heaviest support and the line for the day. 4. 7245 is the upside cap. Above 7245 the path opens to 7280. 5. Iran headlines live. Ceasefire over after Monday's escalation. Oil prices jumping, gas up 50 percent since Feb 28. 6. 10am ISM Services inflation reading is the most important number. Friday's ISM Manufacturing inflation printed 84.60, highest since June 2022. 7. AMD, ANET, SMCI, ALAB after close are AI hardware names. ANET tells us if Arista is taking share from NVDA. 8. VVIX 98.3 stays low despite the Iran headlines. No panic priced in. Selling premium still works if the range holds. 9. Heavy data week. Walls break 40 percent more often than normal. Reduce size into Friday NFP. Selling premium works if the range holds. Iran headlines are the wild card. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit @unusual_whales

Way too early but my eyes are on 7202 or 7240 into the close 🤞 DYOR. Don't fade these. - Not financial advice. $SPX #SPX #0DTE #SPXOptions #OptionsTrading #GEX

SPX opening read: Support moved to 7175 this morning. That is your line in the sand. Hold above 7180 or 7185 and bias stays bullish. Lose 7175 and the tone flips. Until one side breaks cleanly this is a chop fest. Trade small or wait for confirmation. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #OptionsTrading

SPX 7225 at the open. Range 7185 to 7255. Magnet at 7274. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit #SPY

Systematics rebuilt $40bn last week and they're still not stretched. Long term trend signal on SPX only +17%. Flat tape next week they buy another $33bn. Up tape $18bn. Only a real break flips them to sellers. ES sell trigger 7072 to 7141. Hold the line and the mechanical bid keeps grinding. Lose it and the unwind starts. $SPX #SPX #0DTE #SPXOptions #GEX #FinTwit

Records every day last week. Now what? Monday May 4 2026 | SPX 7230.12 Records every day last week. SPX printed a fresh ATH at 7272.52 intraday Friday before fading to 7230.11. April closed up 10 percent, the best month for the S&P 500 since the pandemic rebound. Then the weekend hit. Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal Friday evening and an Iranian commander said Saturday that renewed conflict is likely. Spirit Airlines collapsed overnight. Berkshire reported a record 397 billion dollar cash pile in Greg Abel's first quarter as CEO. Buffett's successor is selling stocks at the highs. Monday opens with the calmest setup of the cycle and three news risks waiting to break it. THE NUMBERS SPX Close: 7230.12 | Friday Range: 7229.32 / 7272.52 VIX: 16.99 | VIX9D: 14.15 | VVIX: 95.2 (suppressed, 1.0 sigma below 30d avg 107.7) Daily 1SD: +/- 64 (7166 to 7294) Weekly 1SD: +/- 170 (7060 to 7400) ATR: +/- 46.4 pts Dealer: SELL pressure (creates resistance as price rises) Calm Zone: above 7050 dealers smooth moves, below 7050 they amplify Monday Score: 79/100 calm (weekly average 64/100) Top GEX Magnets: 7275 / 7245 / 7200 / 7190 / 7175 Resistance: 7290 (lifted 15 points from Friday) Support: 7250 Range: 40 points (7250 to 7290) — 4.25x tighter than the normal weekly range Straddle Mon 5/4: +/- 45 (7185 to 7275) Straddle Tue 5/5: +/- 60 (7170 to 7290) Straddle Wed 5/6: +/- 75 (7155 to 7305) Straddle Thu 5/7: +/- 85 (7145 to 7315) Straddle Fri 5/8: +/- 100 (7130 to 7330) ECONOMIC EVENTS, MONDAY 5/4 10:00 AM ET. Factory Orders MoM (Mar) | Manufacturing read 12:50 PM ET. FED speaker Williams | First FED voice this week 03:00 PM ET. Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates | Auction sizes setup FED speaker Williams 12:50pm is the only meaningful event. Light data day setting up Tuesday's macro stack. EARNINGS, MONDAY 5/4 Before market open: NCLH (implied move 7.89%) After market close: PLTR (implied move 8.26%), ON (implied move 9.42%), PINS (implied move 12.79%), DUOL (implied move 16.67%) PLTR is the headline after market close name. Quiet earnings day relative to Tuesday's stack with AMD, ANET, SMCI, ALAB all reporting after market close. THE VOL PICTURE VIX added 0.10 points Friday on a +21 SPX session that printed a fresh ATH at 7272.52. VIX 16.99 sits in suppressed territory. VIX9D dropped to 14.15 and VVIX printed 95.2, exactly 1.0 sigma below the 30 day average of 107.7. Vol of vol is pinned. VIX internals split mixed Friday. Sticky Strike came in at -0.19, mild crush. Parallel Shift dominant at +0.26 positive. Put Skew flat at -0.01. Call Skew -0.05. Downside Convexity +0.01. Upside Convexity +0.08. Total +0.10. Real money loaded parallel coverage on the rally despite vol staying flat. Hedgers added protection across the curve, not a sentiment shift. Different footprint than Thursday's macro bomb crush. Upside Convexity went positive for the first time in the cycle. The bigger story is the term structure. Mon 5/4 ATM IV prints 8.42 percent, near historic lows for SPX. The forward curve climbs steadily into Friday NFP: Tue 9.99 percent, Wed 10.85 percent, Thu 11.44 percent, Fri 12.49 percent. Theta dominates Monday completely. Premium sellers walk into the cleanest decay setup of the year. Skew shape held even with absolute IV crushed. The 5/4 chain shows 7120 strike at 12.02 percent IV against 7300 strike at 7.91 percent. Almost 4 vol points across a 180 point range. Hedgers paid for downside even with absolute IV crushed. Iran and oil tail risk is still priced in. WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK The week was the climax of an explosive April. SPX entered Monday at 7173.91. By Friday close at 7230.11 the index was up 56 points on the week. But that flat looking weekly number hides the violence. SPX dropped to 7115.17 Tuesday, broke 7115 to 7107.86 Wednesday, then ripped back to a fresh ATH 7272.52 Friday. Tuesday gave back 35 points and tested 7115 twice. Both times it held. In the final 90 seconds before the bell a whale printed a four leg iron condor 7060 to 7200 around 6K contracts per leg. Wednesday delivered the FOMC. Four dissents, the first since October 1992. Powell stays on as governor under Warsh as chair. SPX broke 7115 to 7107.86 then V recovered to 7135.95 close. After the bell MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN all reported. All beat. All sold off initially on capex shock. Combined hyperscaler 2026 capex now 650 billion dollars. Thursday cleared the macro bomb. Core PCE 3.5 percent year over year matched expectations. GDP came in soft at 2.0 percent. SPX ripped 73 points to fresh ATH 7209.01. Caterpillar plus 10 percent on raised guidance. Alphabet plus 9 percent for its best day since last April. April closed plus 34 percent on GOOGL alone, adding 1.2 trillion in market cap. AAPL beat after hours, EPS 2.01 against 1.96 estimate, revenue 111.2 billion against 109.66 estimate. Greater China surged plus 28 percent. Friday printed a new ATH at 7272.52 intraday. Open 7234.54. Low 7229.32. Close 7230.11 plus 21 points. Apple plus 3 percent on the China surge. Oil cooled on Iran via Pakistan proposal news. ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 52.7 in line with prior. ISM Prices Paid shocked to 84.60 against 80 forecast, the highest since June 2022. Spirit Airlines parent fell 62 percent to 52 cents on shutdown reports. April monthly returns capped a historic month. S&P 500 plus 10 percent, the best since November 2020. Nasdaq plus 15 percent. Russell 2000 plus 12 percent. Tech XLK plus 20 percent for its best month since October 2002. SOXX plus 40 percent. The PHLX SOX printed its best month since February 2000. But the rally was narrow. Ten stocks accounted for 70 percent of S&P's 17.9 percent return between March 30 and April 30. Equal weight S&P only plus 6 percent. Energy XLE and Healthcare XLV both finished red despite oil at 126 dollars. WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE WEEKEND Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal Friday evening, saying Tehran was asking for things he could not agree to. A senior Iranian military commander said Saturday that renewed conflict between the US and Iran is likely. The Treasury sanctioned three Iranian foreign currency exchange firms. Strait of Hormuz shipping is down 90 percent from pre war levels with only 154 vessels passing in March against the typical 3000. Twenty thousand seafarers remain stuck on ships in the strait. Israeli strikes on Lebanon Friday killed 12. The new Iranian supreme leader claimed victory over the US and dominance over the Persian Gulf. Spirit Airlines ceased all operations Saturday morning, the first major US airline collapse in 25 years. Seventeen thousand jobs lost. Nine thousand flights canceled through end of May. The 500 million Trump bailout failed at the last minute. Major carriers stepped in with capped rescue fares. Removing 2 percent of US domestic capacity will push fares higher industry wide. Berkshire Hathaway reported its first quarter under Greg Abel as CEO. Cash pile hit a record 397.4 billion, up from 373 billion at year end 2025. Operating earnings 11.35 billion plus 18 percent year over year, slight miss against 11.56 billion estimate. Insurance underwriting plus 29 percent on rebound from prior wildfire losses. Resumed buybacks for 234 million dollars, the first since May 2024. Net 8.1 billion in equity sales during Q1. Buffett's successor is selling stocks and hoarding cash at the highs. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MONDAY The setup is unusual. Two things are pulling against each other. On the calm side, 7275 is the strongest pin level on the chart. Walls are tight, just 40 points wide. Vol is suppressed. Selling premium is favored. SPX closed Friday at 7230, 45 points below that pin. On the danger side, Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal Friday evening and an Iranian commander said Saturday that renewed conflict is likely. Brent settled 115 dollars Thursday after touching 126 intraday. Equity vol got crushed. Energy vol stayed elevated. The divergence is real. Spirit Airlines collapsed Saturday taking 2 percent of US domestic capacity off the board. Berkshire is positioning defensively at the highs with a record 397 billion in cash and net 8 billion in equity sales. The trade is simple to map. The chop zone is 7215 to 7270 with spot 7230 in the lower middle. Inside that band the 7275 magnet pulls and premium sellers win. Above the chop the next real wall is 7300 gateway. Below the chop, 7215 is the strong combined floor and the breakdown trigger. Below 7215 the 7210 fuel zone, which is also Thursday's close, slips into 7200, the major combined floor. Lose 7200 and the 7190 fuel slot kicks in fast. 7185 is the straddle low and the max downside for the day. The week roadmap walks Monday into Tuesday's catalyst stack. ISM Services and JOLTS at 10am Tuesday plus AMD and ANET after market close. Wednesday brings ADP and FED speaker Hammack. Thursday brings Claims and FED speaker Hammack again. Friday is NFP. Five FED speakers concentrate on Wednesday and Thursday. The Fri 5/8 NFP straddle prices plus or minus 100. The vol curve climbs steadily into Friday but Mon-Wed remain dead vol. Anyone selling Monday gamma into Tuesday gamma captures the cleanest theta decay of the week. Bottom line. The pin is 7275, 45 points above Friday's close. Dealers want a quiet day. Hold 7215 and the path drifts up. Lose 7200 and the slide opens. The Iran tape and Berkshire defensive positioning are the risks that could break it. THE LEVELS 🔴 7300 gateway wall, upper boundary if rally extends 🔴 7290 dashboard ceiling 🔴 7280 wall above magnet 🟡 7275 strong magnet, top GEX, pin candidate 🔴 7270 wall, top of chop zone 🔴 7250 first wall above spot 🔴 7245 light wall 🟡 7230 spot, the line 🟢 7225 floor, first stop down 🟢 7215 strong combined floor, breakdown trigger if lost ⚡ 7210 Thu 4/30 close, fuel zone 🟢 7200 MAJOR combined floor, breakdown gate ⚡ 7190 fuel accelerator 🟢 7185 straddle low, max downside for the day IF THEN 🔼 IF SPX holds 7225 THEN 7245 → 7250 → 7270 → 7275 7275 is the strongest magnet. Pin candidate. Dealers defend. 🔼 IF SPX clears 7275 THEN 7280 → 7290 → 7300 Above the magnet. 7300 is the upside gateway. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7215 THEN 7210 → 7200 → 7190 → 7185 7200 is the major breakdown gate. 7185 is the max downside. Tuesday PREVIEW Tuesday May 5 is the heaviest catalyst day of the week. ISM Services PMI at 10am, JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, FED speaker Bowman at 10am, FED speaker Barr at 12:30pm. After market close brings AMD, ANET, SMCI, ALAB all reporting. AMD is the headline AI semi name. ANET will confirm or refute the Arista NVDA share loss commentary that weighed on NVDA Thursday. PFE and SHOP report before market open. Ceiling drops to 7220, floor drops to 7170, top magnet shifts to 7240, regime softens to 55 percent TRANSITIONAL CAUTION. Walls falling vs Monday's rising structure. Tuesday straddle prices plus or minus 60. REST OF WEEK PREVIEW Wednesday brings ADP at 8:15am as the NFP preview, Treasury Refunding at 8:30am, FED speaker Musalem at 9:30am, FED speaker Goolsbee at 1pm, FED speaker Hammack at 1:30pm. ARM after market close on the AI semi continuation tape. DIS, UBER, NVO before market open. Dashboard ceiling lifts to 7280 rising, regime returns to 71 percent LONG GAMMA. Wednesday straddle plus or minus 75. Thursday brings Claims and Unit Labour Costs at 8:30am, Consumer Inflation Expectations at 11am, FED speaker Hammack again at 2:05pm, FED speaker Williams at 3:30pm. CRWV, TTD, COIN, AFRM after market close. MCD and DDOG before market open. Dashboard ceiling 7250 falling, regime 61 percent TRANSITIONAL SQUEEZE. Walls compressing. Thursday straddle plus or minus 85. Friday is NFP. FED speaker Cook at 5:45am, NFP and Average Hourly Earnings at 8:30am, Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10am. Four FED speakers at 7:30pm: Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee, Waller. Friday straddle plus or minus 100. The Tuesday through Friday levels and straddles come from Friday's close. Each session repaints as fresh positioning loads. Each daily NextPin brief refreshes the specific levels for that session. The vol cliff is locked. Mon 8.42 percent IV is the lowest on the curve. Fri NFP 12.49 percent. Anyone selling Monday gamma into Friday gamma captures the steepest theta decay of the post PCE setup. The Mag Seven cycle is complete. All five (MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL) beat last week. Cloud accelerated. iPhone surged in China. Capex shock digested. The earnings tailwind is now baked into current SPX price. Iran tail risk persists. Trump rejected the peace deal Friday night. Iranian commander said renewed conflict likely Saturday. RULES 1. SPX trading at 7230 close. Spot opens inside the 7215 to 7270 chop zone, 45 points below the 7275 magnet. 2. Monday is regime 79 percent LONG GAMMA dampened. Pin conditions favor. Sell premium inside the chop. 3. Wall width 40 points, 4.25 times tighter than weekly 1SD. Tightest cage of the cycle. 4. 7215 is the breakdown trigger. Below 7215 watch 7200. 5. 7200 is the major breakdown gate. Lose it and 7190 fuel kicks in toward 7185 straddle low. 6. 7275 magnet pulls. Hold 7215 and the path drifts up. Above 7290 ceiling opens to 7300 gateway. 7. Iran weekend tail risk live. Trump rejected peace proposal Friday night. Renewed conflict possible. Oil tape stays sensitive. 8. Berkshire 397 billion cash plus Buffett successor selling stocks at records is an institutional defensive signal. Watch for follow through. 9. Mon to Wed are dead vol days. Mon IV 8.42 percent. Fri NFP is the catalyst. Theta wins inside the cage all week unless macro breaks the structure. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit @unusual_whales

Most likely close between 7240 and 7255 No guarantee. DYOR. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #0DTE #SPXOptions #FinTwit

Quick update: SPX 7270 spot Above: 7275 → 7280 → 7290 → 7303 Watch the reaction at each level. 7280 is the gate, 7303 is the cap. $SPX #SPX #0DTE #SPXOptions #GEX

7252 is the cap. If SPX clears it, the squeeze is on. If it rejects, we fade. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit #SPY

Every day a new ATH. What does today bring? Quick levels. Regular battlefield will be available before market open. NEXTPIN FRI 5/1 | SPX 7225 LEVELS 🔴 7260 upper extension 🔴 7252 ceiling cap 🔴 7245 magnet, long calls loaded 🔴 7235 overnight high 🟢 7225 spot, the pivot 🟡 7215 overnight low 🟡 7209 prev close 🟢 7202 strongest floor 🟢 7190 max downside IF/THEN 🔼 IF SPX holds 7225 THEN 7235 → 7245 → 7252 7252 caps. If reject, fade to 7225-7245. ⏸ IF SPX pins 7225 to 7245 THEN drifts to 7235 then 7245 magnet 7235 caps first. If breaks, 7245 pulls. 🔽 IF SPX drops below 7225 THEN 7215 first catch 7209 second catch 7202 last real floor 7190 worst case ISM 10am. EOM. Pin probability HIGH. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #0DTE #GEX #FinTwit

Out at my kid's meet tonight. Daily brief will be delayed or posting in the morning before the open. Some smiles matter more than the tape 🤗 Good night everyone!

Funny how this works. Hours on the research, offered free, still gatekept. If you follow the work, respect the work.Silence doesn't hurt me. I'll keep researching and posting here. No commitments, no asks. Free work finds its audience eventually.

$SPX - 7222 next ?

$SPX - can they try 7215 to kill call sellers at 7200/7205 ?

Can we close at 7205+/- ? 7207 is the best spot I guess. Anyways let’s wait and see. Please note 7200 is tough resistance so far. Good luck everyone! - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit #SPY