Nextlevelindex

A quick thread to give some context to the high school development model 1/ Not all schools that get players drafted are good at developing talent. Some just recruit better. This thread breaks down a model I built to separate recruiting strength from development ability.

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There are roughly 275,000 high school senior football players in the U.S. each year. There are ONLY 32 five-stars in each class. That’s it. So the odds of becoming a five-star are roughly 1 in 8,600 per class. And historically, five-stars have a ~65% NFL Draft rate. Some people act like Rivals (and this industry) hands out five-stars like mini Milky Ways on Halloween, not even close. We give out 32. Period. It's finite. They are earned. Nobody in our industry cares which player or which team gets them. We care that the hit rate stays elite. And trust us … nobody loved a five-star more than Nick Saban. And he is the greatest college football coach ever. It’s a privilege to earn a five-star. It’s been that way for 30 years, and it will be for the next 30.

Washington is consistently overrepresented in the NFL Draft relative to its recruiting profile. They’re not built on recruiting dominance but they have been efficient at giving the ones they do recruit chances in the NFL. By my model: • +26% over expectation when isolating for elite prospects. • +36% over expectation across the full recruiting class. Washington isn’t defined by recruiting rankings — it’s defined by conversion efficiency for high school prospects. For prospects, a Washington Huskies offer represents a real opportunity to outperform expectation and reach the NFL.

NEW: Michigan Five-Star Plus+ EDGE signee Carter Meadows reacts to Michigan hiring Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, via @SWiltfong_: “I’m feeling good. It was a long process. We waited for the outcome and based off what I know about coach Whittingham, I’m confident.” Read: on3.com/rivals/news/re…

Iowa is consistently overrepresented in the NFL Draft. Under Kirk Ferentz, they’ve built one of the most efficient development programs in college football — producing NFL draft picks without elite recruiting classes. By my model: • +57% over expectation when isolating blue-chip recruits • +54% over expectation across the full recruiting class Iowa has not been a high level recruiter but there is no doubt they are consistently overrepresented in the NFL draft. For prospects, an Iowa offer should be seen as a big opportunity.

Why don’t teams go for two here?

Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea talks about what he told his team when they didn’t make the CFP: “The message was, 'We had control over this ... and we did not do enough.' I think it's really important that we take ownership. ... The world expects us to be disappointed right now, but what we are is excited [for the bowl game]."

Clark Lea did not blame anyone besides themselves with CFP. Says they had chances at Alabama and Texas “That’s no one’s fault except our own. We had our opportunities and we didn’t do enough. We are not victims in this process. Our ownership is in coming up short…” @chrislee70

REPORT: Michigan State is expected to hire former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, per @freep👀 on3.com/news/report-mi…

Arizona State is one of the most overlooked NFL-development programs — and Kenny Dillingham has kept that pipeline alive despite major turmoil and sanctions. My NFL Development Model ranks ASU 13th nationally, with a strong +22% overperformance vs expected draft representation. The Sun Devils quietly produce pros at key playmaking positions: 🔸 RB: 4th 🔸 CB: 7th Even through instability, they continue to turn talent into draft picks — a sign of real developmental strength. A standout example: Rachaad White (3rd round), one of the best recent RB success stories to come through Tempe.

Virginia Tech is one of the most quietly elite NFL-development programs in college football. They haven’t had the on-field success recently… but the player development pipeline is still top tier. My NFL Development Model ranks the Hokies 4th nationally, with a massive +37% overperformance vs expected draft representation — one of the highest margins in the country. Where VT especially shines: 🔸 WR: 13th 🔸 DL: 7th 🔸 CB: 6th They have turned under-the-radar recruits into NFL players. Examples of that include: Dorian Strong (3rd round, 2025) and Divine Diablo (3rd round, 2021). With the recent hire of James Franklin; someone who has been highly efficient at NFL development in his time at Penn state it is a attractive combination. Virginia Tech can develop pros at an elite level — regardless of the win-loss column.

I intend to highlight some surprising schools that have been more efficient at NFL development the first is - Stanford: One of College Football’s Most Underrated NFL Talent Developers Stanford currently ranks 9th overall in my NFL Developmental Model — despite recruiting nowhere near the volume of blue-chip talent that the traditional powerhouses do. They Cardinal have outperformed their expected NFL Draft representation by +5%. Where they really shine is at the skill positions: Tight Ends — 2nd nationally Wide Receivers — 11th Cornerbacks — 10th Safeties — 13th Even with recent on-field struggles, Stanford has has the potential to still be a premium destination for NFL development. Recent players such as Paulson Adebo and Michael Wilson have found success at the school. In spite of recent on field and recruiting struggles Stanford can still be one of the most efficient NFL development hubs in the country, especially for players at key perimeter and pass-game positions.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing linebackers into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing defensive ends into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing defensive lineman into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing safeties into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing cornerbacks into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing offensive tackles into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing running backs into NFL draft picks.

This is the top 5 for the active head coaches developing interior offensive lineman into NFL draft picks.