Nick The Quant

2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Conclusion: This college basketball season my ensemble model performed at a 54.54% accuracy rate (majority underdogs) Profit: +28.62 Units (+28.62% ROI) My goal for this season was +30 Units and I was just off, but nonetheless very happy with this season's results. To put this into perspective, over the span of just a single college basketball season, my ensemble model outperformed: YEARLY Returns For: Major index funds, some of the top listed hedge funds, etc. In other words, my continuous goal to use predictive analytics/probability theory to execute mathematically rational decisions for financial profit in the sports betting market continues to prove that it is a completely legitimate method of investment. NOW ONTO THE MLB!

I have been posting my daily “highest mathematical edge” picks on my Instagram and a full video analysis explaining the math on my YouTube. Since posting these, my highest edge mathematical picks are currently 2-0. For my Instagram: instagram.com/p/DX5ECDKib9j/… And for a YouTube video breakdown: youtu.be/Fv38l0CbPYc?si…

PICK #5: Seattle Mariners ML (-122) +5.41% EV Risk 1.10%

5/3/2026 MLB Sports Betting Picks: PICK #1: Houston Astros ML (+153) +27.69% EV Risk 3.01% Rest of today's picks will be attached to this post.

PICK #4: Chicago White Sox ML (+144) +4.90% EV Risk 0.56%

PICK #3: New York Mets ML (-131) +2.15% EV Risk 0.46%

PICK #2: Milwauee Brewers ML (-149) +2.29% EV Risk 0.56%

For today’s highest pick breakdown and analysis please visit my Instagram for preview & my YouTube account for an entire 10min video break down explaining the math that goes into this pick! Insta post: instagram.com/p/DX2RuN_iRCe/… YouTube Video: youtu.be/AwWQ-a8EtP4?si…

PICK #6: LA Angels ML (+104) +15.95% EV Risk 2.55%

5/2/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks: PICK #1: Cleveland Guardians ML (+119) +4.59% EV Risk 0.64% More picks to come. They will be attached to this post.

PICK #5: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-102) +13.22% EV Risk 2.24%

Correction: +108

PICK #4: Philadelphia Phillies ML (+104) +14.59% EV Risk 2.25%

PICK #3: Boston Red Sox ML (-141) +3.97% EV Risk 0.93%

PICK #2: Cincinnati Reds ML (+117) +3.60% EV Risk 0.51%

@PhilmoreTicket Ya I mean there was a 2 inning stint where the cubs really laid it into em. Cubs got it done but market wise Arizona was the right set up. Just unfortunate Arizona got wiggy at the mound

@NickTheQuant44 if you watched the game, they were whooping ass. Arizona scored some trash time runs.

5/1/2026 MLB Sports Betting Picks PICK #1: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+135) +15.71% EV Risk 1.94% (rest of picks will be attached below)

Today my bets majority beat the closing line: Diamondbacks +5.38% CLV ❌ Reds -1.84% CLV❌ Orioles +2.37% CLV❌ Astros +0.99% CLV❌ Cardinals +2.05% CLV✅ Rockies +4.98% CLV❌ Angels +9.12% CLV (?) Guardians +6.46% CLV (?) Honestly extremely confused on how I can be doing so well against closing line yet outcomes are drastically deviating in the opposite direction. Trying to figure this out.

@PhilmoreTicket Brother they won by a point but good pick anyways

@NickTheQuant44 cubs mopped arizona today

Alrighty thank you Rockies. 6-0 to an 8-6 final👏

Fun pick outside of my current MLB Model betting. Since 2025, teams that are favored at -3.5 have a 64.2% win rate overall in the NBA. When away, that number rises to 66.7%. Detroit is -3.5 is a make or break game where they’re 0-2 when at Orlando. Detroit is -162 according to DraftKings and Orlando is +136. Based on the empirical data we can then roughly calculate the Detroit probability to be a 65.45% probability. This means at DET (-162) +5.85% Expected Value and a reasonable risk is 1.57%. So, Pistons ML +5.85%, 1.57% risk is the play.

PICK #7: Cleveland Guardians ML (-118) +10.03% EV Risk 1.97%