Ned Nikolov, Ph.D.

This is an updated list of peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, video podcasts, and key blog articles explaining various aspect of our new climate-science paradigm currently known as the Nikolov-Zeller (NZ) Climate Concept. This full-fledged, physics-based and data-driven concept will eventually replace the "greenhouse theory" of climate change, which was proposed as a pure conjecture more than 120 years ago, and is now falsified by modern satellite observations from projects such as NASA CERES (ceres.larc.nasa.gov): Peer-reviewed Scientific Papers: - 2014. On the average temperature of airless spherical bodies and the magnitude of Earth’s atmospheric thermal effect: springerplus.springeropen.com/articles/10.11… - 2017. New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model: omicsonline.org/open-access/Ne… - 2024. Roles of Earth’s Albedo Variations and Top-of-the-Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in Recent Warming: New Insights from Satellite and Surface Observations: mdpi.com/2673-7418/4/3/… Video Presentations & Podcasts: - 2021. Demystifying the Atmospheric Thermal Effect. Toward a New Paradigm of Climate Science: vimeo.com/602819278 - 2021. Drivers of Earth's Paleoclimate, a New Paradigm of Understanding: youtube.com/watch?v=DpUkPP… - 2024. Beyond the Greenhouse Theory: youtube.com/watch?v=L1GgmB… - 2025. The ill-defined “Greenhouse Effect” and Greenhouse-Gas "Radiative Forcing" youtube.com/watch?v=tTMEc5… - 2025. What's the Truth? Unpacking Climate Science (Podcast with Dr. Shawn Baker): youtube.com/watch?v=-DhlH6… - 2026. Is the Global Mean Surface Temperature Physically Meaningful? youtube.com/watch?v=WqmxpW… Blog Articles: - 2022. Dispelling the Milankovitch Myth: Why were Ice Ages not caused by Orbital Cycles? tallbloke.wordpress.com/2022/01/03/ned… - 2022. A Surface Solar Radiation Dataset exposes a major manipulation of Global Temperature Records between 1960 and 1980: tallbloke.wordpress.com/2022/07/11/ned… - 2024. Misrepresentation of Critical Satellite Data by the IPCC 6th Assessment Report: tallbloke.wordpress.com/2024/07/26/nik… - 2024. An Open Letter to IPCC discussing omissions & data misrepresentations in AR6: tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/upl… Spread the word about our new climate science, for it has the power to save the World through knowledge from a self-induced destruction caused by collective ignorance!

@dpetrasek0 Do deserts on Earth get as cold at night as the lunar surface at night? If not, why? 🙂

@NikolovScience Really good explanation. Question: How the N-Z climate concept explains deserts - why do they get so cold at night?

🚨The confusion about basic atmospheric thermodynamics among scientists runs deeper than most people can imagine. Here is a communication I recently had with Dr. Roy Spencer, a climate skeptic, that illustrates this fact vividly: tallbloke.wordpress.com/2026/05/23/dis… This widespread confusion appears to have resulted from an early education bias toward radiation and radiative transfer in describing climate processes that ignores fundamental pressure-temperature aspects of classical gas thermodynamics. As a consequence, the current climate theory lacks an understanding that planetary surface temperatures are determined by both diabatic and adiabatic processes working simultaneously. The absorption of solar energy by planets and the emission of long-wave radiation to Space are examples of diabatic processes, while the Atmospheric Thermal Effect (ATE) is due to an adiabatic process, which represents a pressure-induced enhancement of the absorbed solar energy.

This is finally happening: US is officially out of the corrupt and deadly UN's World Health Organization (WHO). The next step should be to dismantle WHO so that it could never be revived again.

@EJunvik You are confused on this topic. Watch these videos to gain a proper understanding: - vimeo.com/602819278 - youtube.com/watch?v=tTMEc5… Let me know if you have questions after watching the videos.

Thank you! Over the past 12 year, I've tried to cooperate with both mainstream scientists and climate skeptics. Mainstream scientists simply ignored our research and refused to discuss its implications publicly. Organized skeptics groups such as CLINTEL showed limited interest in our publications. However, when I press them to publicly acknowledge our new paradigm and modify their main message to reflect the observed lack of GHG control on climate, they simply excommunicated me from the group. See this thread for details: x.com/NikolovScience…

@NikolovScience Well, we need to value each others expertise and collaborate. Knowledge development must not be headed by prima-donnas or corrupt forces... your efforts are appreciated by many of us Ned

Why is the heat stored by the Moon surface not enough to raise Moon's global average temperature to a value that's even close to Earth's global temperature? - Moon's average temperature per NASA Diviner data is 199.4 K - Earth's global temperature is about 287.8 K Also, keep in mind that the Moon absorbs (on average) 54 W m-2 MORE solar radiation than Earth, because Moon has a much lower albedo than Earth.

Ned, your response to my initial post was of little value, are you unable to dispute the substance of my post? Or is it all just nonsensical rambling? If meteorologists actually use the models incorporating the Ideal Gas Law to make 2 week weather reports, then that explains why the ten day forecasts are never right. What do you say about stored surface heat being responsible for maintaining earth's livable temperature...there is no greenhouse effect? Is that too simple to understand, because it's based on verifiable, physical reality? Application of the Ideal Gas Law is not the issue here...prove me wrong.

@JanEvelynCRE @jemmm85517813 Also, study this thread for more critical insights: x.com/NikolovScience…

@JanEvelynCRE @jemmm85517813 Sure!

CO2 does not cause warming..Atmospheric science is so complicated that scientists are still discussing the science amongst themselves!

Atmospheric science is not complicated especially when it comes to fundamental aspects of thermodynamics and large-scale drivers of climate. The "complication" comes from intellectual confusion caused by biased education and the inability to see the system from a different perspective, i.e. to rise above the social conditioning.

@NikolovScience Pressure is caused by gravity. You’re saying that the emissive power of the surface is higher because of gravity. How many W/m^2 worth of gravity are you adding, and what made you think that gravity is a source of power? Static pressure doesn’t enhance temperature.

@Furkolkjaaf Yes, and they are all wrong! Contemporary standard atmospheric physics acknowledges that the lapse rate in the troposphere is caused by the pressure decrease with altitude, not GHGs! I explain this using math in one of my podcasts: youtube.com/watch?v=tTMEc5…

@NikolovScience It seems that the same claim of "Isothermal" atmosphere for an isolated system was shared by Maxwell, Boltzmann, and ...Grok. They claim that a non-isothermal atmosphere (in such isolated state) would contradict the 2nd Law.

Important to understand, if we're ever to return to proper empirical science and sound energy policy.

Also note Roy Spencer’s inability to understand the importance of cosmic continuums in deciphering climate phenomena on Earth. He believes that the climates (surface temperatures) of other planet and moons have nothing to do with Earth’s global temperature and climate. He wrote: “I haven’t studied the atmospheres of other planets, because I don’t care. Even if those other planets did not exist, they are not necessary for understanding our own atmosphere.” tallbloke.wordpress.com/2026/05/23/dis… The naïve belief that Earth’s climate is controlled by unique physical laws not operating on other planetary bodies is quite common among climate scientists. It reveals a lack of sound physical approach toward studying climate drivers.

It's quite surprising to see PhD climate scientists such as Roy Spencer not understanding the physical meaning of the Gas Law. In his email, Spencer wrote: "...the Ideal Gas Law (PV=nRT) cannot tell you what the temperature “should be”. It only says how the variables P, V, and T are interrelated during the process of re-equilibration, and in the final equilibrium state." What?! 🙄 Read my response to this remark in the blog article: tallbloke.wordpress.com/2026/05/23/dis…

@7_Sages_Wotcm These are the models that produce operational weather forecasts up to 2 weeks in advance, and are used by ALL meteorologists throughout the World... Sorry, but you are talking nonsense!

Yep, "numerical weather prediction models." We know that models are not reality. Give me a real-world example, of the Ideal Gas Law, as used by meteorologists?

Your claim that the Gas Law only applies to fixed-volume systems is INCORRECT. The Gas Law is a law, because it applies to ALL kinds of thermodynamic gas systems. The Gas Law is one of the fundamental equations used in numerical weather prediction models. So, of course, it applies to the Earth's atmosphere! 😎

Fact: Atmospheric pressure declines with altitude (less atmospheric molecules) and since "n" and "T" have a direct relationship, less molecules contains less heat. The LWIR from earth's surface passes to space through all parts of the atmosphere, but the heat contained at any altitude is determined by "n". And that temperature is determined by Ned, both you and Roy Spencer are overthinking the weather of our planet. Heat transfer into and out of earth's climate system is of first importance but only one piece of a complex system. It's like describing the functions of the human body by saying...your heart beats. Today's climate scientists (sic) more often than not apply well known physics theories incorrectly. The Ideal Gas Law cannot be applied to earth's atmosphere because a critical parameter "V" (volume), which contains the molecular mass and establishes "P" (pressure), cannot exist in the open atmosphere. The application of the Ideal Gas Law requires a fixed volume of gas at thermal equilibrium. The atmosphere is never in thermal equilibrium. Fact: The atmosphere does not establish earth's temperature. Although water vapor strongly absorbs solar NIR/SWIR during the day, solar irradiance absorbed by earth's surface, ocean and land, determines the temperature we feel. You must understand that there are two distinct types of heat in earth's surface: 1) The top layer, ~1 cm that actually receives the solar irradiance and can be 130 (F) with direct insolation. This layer cools rapidly by IR emission to space and evaporation into the atmosphere at night. That heat is determined by latitudinal location of SZA in the tropics. 2) Stored subsurface heat below ~1 cm. Heat is transferred to the subsurface, from the top layer by conduction. In the Northern/Southern Hemispheres that heat accumulates for ~6 months and then cools for ~6 months. That cycle determines seasonal temperature. Atmospheric pressure has nothing to do with that heat cycle! Atmospheric pressure quantifies the weight of the atmosphere...that's all, it doesn't generate heat. The atmosphere is heated by earth's surface heat, and simply slows the heat transfer to space. Lapse rate: Lapse rate is not physics on steroids. Fact: Heat doesn't exist in a vacuum. Only atoms/molecules contain heat energy. That's where "n" (number of moles of gas) in the Ideal Gas Law affects temperature. Temperature has a direct relationship to "n". We know that water vapor both absorbs incoming solar and releases latent heat upon evaporation and is highly variable, so let's consider dry air. Heat in the atmosphere is determined by the top layer of earth's surface. The atmosphere doesn't see stored subsurface heat. That heat is slowly released to the top layer by conduction. Fact: Atmospheric pressure declines with altitude (less atmospheric molecules) and since "n" and "T" have a direct relationship, less molecules contain less heat energy. The LWIR from earth's surface passes to space through all parts of the atmosphere, but the heat contained at any altitude is determined by "n". And the temperature is determined by and follows surface temperature. That's why we have lapse rate...and why water vapor condenses at altitude and returns to earth as precipitation. This doesn't happen due to complicated physics, it's merely physical, measurable reality. Adding plant life to land surface really affects the above process! Plant life is earth's greatest heat modulator.

Spencer is genuinely confused, probably because he never worked with Thermodynamics theory and data since college. He certainly has no idea, how gas thermodynamics applies to climate. He can only understand "radiation in", "radiation out" and "energy balance". But, that's not sufficient for understanding climate drivers.

@NikolovScience There is an arrogance running through Spencer's critique that hints of his insecurity over this discussion. I doubt he will be back for another attempt... shame that our 'so called' experts have zero humility or respect for others.