CA Nikunj

Please reach out to us at nrchowdhary@gmail.com for guidance with your portfolio, mutual funds, personal advice, and student one-to-one guidance

Sectors looking Strong! China Factor youtu.be/oBEUQfDQLLk?si… via @YouTube

Yuan vs. Indian Rupee (INR) Yuan has appreciated significantly against the Rupee. February, 1 CNY was worth approximately 13.00 INR. Today, it has surged to around 13.95 INR. Substantial gain of 7.2% for the Yuan against the INR in just one quarter.

Solar & Battery Sector: A Direct Hit on Indian Projects The most aggressive policy shift effective this April directly impacts India's booming renewable energy sector. The Update: Starting April 1, 2026, China has entirely eliminated the VAT export rebates for solar PV products. Furthermore, the export rebate for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and lithium battery products was slashed from 9% to 6% (and will be completely cancelled by January 1, 2027). Impact on India: This is a major headwind. Indian solar and BESS developers heavily rely on cheap Chinese imports. The sudden removal of these financial incentives means the landed cost of Chinese solar panels and battery storage units in India will see an immediate spike, potentially delaying project timelines or increasing capital expenditure for Indian renewable energy firms.

The Chemical Sector: Elimination of Export Tax Rebates (April 1st) Instead of placing direct bans on all chemicals, Beijing is managing its massive chemical overcapacity by altering tax policies. The Update: Effective April 1, 2026, China cancelled the value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for several key chemicals, including 1,4-Butanediol (BDO), which is crucial for plastics, solvents, and textiles. The Reaction: Because exporters knew the rebate was disappearing on April 1st, there was a massive surge in Chinese chemical exports in March (a "front-loading" effect). Impact on India: India relies heavily on Chinese chemical imports. With the tax rebates gone, Chinese suppliers will likely pass this lost margin onto Indian buyers, meaning the base cost for these raw chemicals will increase in the coming months.

Cable and Wires (Hidden Proxy!) youtu.be/Hr5Y6ZFZ64I?si… via @YouTube

OnEMI Technology Solutions. AUM (Assets Under Management): ~₹5,960 Crore (as of December 31, 2025). AUM Split: 94% to 98% is strictly in Unsecured Personal Loans. The remaining is in Secured Loans (like Loan Against Property). Price to Book (P/B) Ratio: 1.4x post-issue book value. (This is considered quite cheap compared to other NBFCs, reflecting the high risk of their unsecured loan portfolio). NIM (Net Interest Margins): High margins. NIM was 18.6% in FY23, dipped slightly to 16.8% in FY24, and surged to roughly 23.8% in FY25. Growth of AUM (Last 3 Years): FY23: ~₹2,670 Crore FY24: ~₹4,087 Crore Dec 2025 (9M FY26): ~₹5,960 Crore NPA (Non-Performing Assets): Gross NPA: Jumped sharply from 0.05% in FY23, to 0.79% in FY24, and is currently sitting at 2.89% (as of FY25/Dec 2025). Net NPA: Nil in FY23 and FY24, but now at 0.38%.

Stocks to Benefit from Bengal Election! youtu.be/nenLE3TAKAo?si… via @YouTube

Is Sterlite the Next Big Turnaround? youtu.be/N5L7bHk_ONc?si… via @YouTube

@AdityaD_Shah Spot on, reason why market do not give the same price to book to PSU banks Vs Private, despite almost similar loan growth, nims and ROE.

Vodafone Idea has a debt of nearly 182,000cr The company is accumulating huge losses every quarter, Why would any lender give further loans to Vodafone? What is the compulsion of SBI to give a loan here?

@abhymurarka Sandesh bhi

Jhal muri to banti hai aaj 😅

While Netweb Technologies and E2E Networks are leading India’s AI infrastructure charge, they face "missing" links that could become liabilities as the industry moves from raw GPU power to complex CPU-heavy agentic AI. Here is what is currently missing or at risk for both players: 1. The "Host CPU" & Interconnect Gap Historically, both companies prioritized GPU density (getting the most H100s/B200s into a rack). However, they are missing the balanced architecture required for the next phase: The Bottleneck: Agentic AI and RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation) require massive CPU-to-GPU bandwidth. If their current clusters use standard PCIe Gen4 or older networking, the CPU becomes a "starving" host that can't feed the GPUs fast enough. What’s Missing: High-bandwidth InfiniBand or RoCE v2 fabrics at the CPU level. Without these, their ₹4 crore clusters might perform like ₹2 crore ones because the "brain" (CPU) can't coordinate the "muscles" (GPUs) efficiently. 2. Supply Chain "Priority Access" As of early 2026, there is a global structural shortage of server CPUs (AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon). Netweb: While they are an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), they lack the tier-1 global scale of a Dell or HP. In a shortage, they often sit further down the priority list for the highest-performing "Gold" or "Platinum" grade silicon. E2E Networks: As a cloud provider, their challenge is Capex strain. Buying 2,000+ Blackwell GPUs is one thing; securing 2,000+ top-tier CPUs to match them during a price hike (10–15% increases in 2026) puts immense pressure on their balance sheet. 3. Vertical Software "Orchestration" Layers The shift to Agentic AI means customers no longer want just "raw metal." The Gap: Both companies are strong on hardware but still trail global hyperscalers (AWS/Azure) in orchestration software. The Need: They are missing deeply integrated "Agentic Frameworks" that automatically manage CPU-bound tasks like database calls, memory swapping, and task scheduling. Without this, the burden of managing the "CPU bottleneck" falls on the customer, making their cloud less attractive to non-technical enterprises. 4. Cooling & Power Density Evolution The new "CPU Renaissance" adds significant heat. High-core-count CPUs now draw nearly as much power as mid-range GPUs. Missing Infrastructure: Many Indian data centers are still optimized for air cooling. To run the high-performance CPU-GPU combos (like the Nvidia Grace Blackwell which Netweb is just now adopting), they need to rapidly transition to liquid-to-chip cooling. Failure to do so will lead to "thermal throttling," where the CPU slows down to stay cool, creating an artificial bottleneck.

Election & DMart, Central Bank, RR Kabel, Capri, and IndiaMART: Deep Div... youtu.be/v77w-RP77cc?si… via @YouTube

Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) A massive turnaround story this quarter due to capacity ramp-ups. Revenue: ₹16,218 Cr (Revenue from Ops), Up 23% YoY. Net Profit (PAT): ₹1,041 Cr (Reversed a loss of ₹339 Cr in the year-ago period). Margins: PAT margin recovered to 5.4% (from 1.2% in Q3). Operational: 61% of sales came from Value-Added Steel. Guidance: Moving product mix toward 70% flat steel (automotive/appliances) to capture higher structural margins.

DMart (Avenue Supermarts) DMart crossed 500 stores this quarter. Revenue: ₹17,205 Cr (Standalone), Up 19% YoY. Net Profit (PAT): ₹725 Cr, Up 16.9% YoY. Margins: Remained stable despite aggressive expansion; focus remains on the "Everyday Low Price" (EDLP) model. Expansion: Added 58 new stores in Q4 alone. Guidance: Management expects continued double-digit growth driven by the "large format" store strategy and deeper penetration in Tier 2/3 cities.

CA Final me All India Rank 33 aur Share Bazar. youtu.be/pyVsh2XpLiU?si… via @YouTube

16% builder loan book will always put the Price to book on check, will not allow to fly + Gold price rally benefit on AUM will be visible, last year prices doubled so you can see massive jump on AUM, now the prices are almost at 1.5 lac cr.. they have very high LTV, growing fresh at such base may be difficult.... Theoretically may add 1000 cr PAT in next 3 years so 3000 cr, p/b of 3,

@AdityaD_Shah 15% growth with NIMS falling by 30 bps, evident in ROE fall, HDFC grew at 12% at 29 lac cr. Not sure how can you pull this as good numbers...dilute NIM and grow a bit more,

Good numbers from Kotak Mahinda Bank Advances grow at 15% Deposits grow at 18% Sluppages fall 32% to 1488ct NPAs improve to 1.20% Good numbers from Kotak!

Hero growth numbers are illusionary. Hero halted production for 3 days (April 17–19) at four major plants (Dharuhera, Gurugram, Haridwar, and Neemrana) for scheduled maintenance and infrastructure upgrades. Inventory Alignment: The pause was specifically designed to realign supply chains and clear existing dealer inventory before ramping up for new model launches like the Xoom 125R and 160. This intentional slowdown in 2025 is the reason the 2026 numbers look like a massive 85% jump—it’s a return to normal capacity compared to a month that was half-empty by choice.

@moviebuffindian @sandipsabharwal Agree, but still the predictability remain weak as per my understanding. Market generally rewards when it is bit certain on the growth.

@NikunjSOF @sandipsabharwal Just check the movie line-up for next year. Plus, movies are a low-ticket entertainment option coupled with #PVRINOX being a huge retail food company apart from multiplex behemoth.

Several movies like #RajaShivaji, #BhootBangla #Michael etc adding to Box Office numbers of bigger blockbusters Movies are back in a big way. There are blockbusters followed by smaller hits. I expect #PVRInox will reflect this via continuous improvement in numbers over the next two years.