Nirzu

$ZEC Price has now put in a successful compound breakout through both the descending trendline and the $540 macro resistance. We’ve also seen it close back above a prior lower high ($560) for the first time since this corrective structure began. Ideally, that pivot now holds as support and starts pushing price into the $590-600 overhead region. If it fails, then eyes go straight back to $540. That said, the cleanest risk/reward is still presented at either the break of the $640 highs, or a retest of $540 with invalidation (SL) below. Everything in between is likely to be chop. And since we could still see more consolidation before a clean breakout attempt, the better trade structure is to place longs at support rather than forcing one in the middle of the range. 🪬

$ETH / $BTC As long as ETHBTC continues rejecting this descending trendline, I think there’s a high probability we eventually see $ETH print fresh cycle lows on its fiat pair. This week, we started to see ETHBTC break down from its descending triangle support, and it is now trading lower than where it was when BTC was sitting at $60K. So if the market rolls over again, ETH likely reaches new lows well before BTC ever revisits $60K. The key now is whether ETH can hold above the cycle low it set against BTC in April last year, which is the macro higher low on the chart. As long as that level holds, ETH can still form a macro higher low and reset for the next cycle.

$ZEC ZEC is now pushing into a very important area structurally. Price is still trading within the same downward channel that has controlled the corrective phase for the last few weeks, while continuing to set lower highs into channel resistance. At the same time, we’ve now had multiple attempts at reclaiming the $540 macro resistance, and so far every single one has been rejected. So while this current move is presenting a potential compound breakout through both the downtrend resistance and the macro resistance intersection, the chart is still technically operating under a lower high structure. And that’s important specifically because of how many Type 2 distributions ZEC has already produced throughout this corrective phase. We’ve repeatedly seen price briefly reclaim key resistance levels, trigger breakout confirmation, force late longs into the move, and then immediately roll over into another lower high continuation. That’s why, for me, the real confirmation is not just reclaiming the macro resistance. It will be whether ZEC can actually close above a prior lower high pivot and begin invalidating the corrective structure. Until at least the $560 lower high pivot is reclaimed, I’m staying cautious about treating this anything more than a relief rally following the liquidity draw from our $484 level.

$BTC Everyone keeps asking, “Why hasn’t the bear flag dumped yet?” Because it isn’t a flag. A textbook bear flag is a tight, fast consolidation following a vertical breakdown, which will typically resolve within one to three weeks, or four to five at the absolute extreme. Price will usually compress and offer minimal internal rotation, before eventually continuing in the direction of the preceding trend. That is not what this is. What's on the chart is an ascending channel. Multiple full rotations from range low to range high. Trend developing inside the boundaries. Both the buy side and sell side are being systematically worked. This is a slow structure by construction. Its function is to absorb liquidity from both sides over an extended period, which naturally delays resolution relative to any standard continuation pattern. Labeling it a flag is a misread. People are trading a thesis that doesn't exist on this timeframe. And even if the bears are right and it does break down, it's not going be a fast resolution. A channel of this duration will unwind through an extended period of contested price action. The bigger narrative here is that this entire cycle so far has been a consistent deviation in timing relative to prior cycles. ⚡️