Hamza retweetledi
using my computational finance framework with monte carlo bootstraps across 100k path iterations and stochastic discounting (accounting for dollar liquidity, us fed policy and global credit cycles), bitcoin’s structural trajectory remains statistically consistent with prior halving cycles. post-april 2024 halving the stochastic projection aligns with an exponential regression channel targeting 150k+ with 63 percent probability, November is when I will book my profits and exist. current consolidation at 113k reflects a short term dislocation from adverse us ppi data, which historically increases downside volatility by 8 to 12% before mean reversion. macro liquidity lag is delaying the breakout, but probability density functions across weekly returns continue converging toward the upper bound of the green profit zone. risk adjusted sharpe metrics still favor a long biased allocation with conditional drawdown risk capped near 100k, provided no regulatory crackdown, etf failure, macro credit crisis or other black swan shock. #bitcoin #btc #computationalfinance
English
