NOLA Analytics

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NOLA Analytics

@NolaAnalytics

Analysis on Pelicans and Saints (and a hint of Alabama) mostly from a stats/math/analytics background

Katılım Ağustos 2012

188 Takip Edilen923 Takipçiler

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·11 Ağu

Here are the top 25 teams by power rating based on Vegas Point spreads heading into the season: For teams in the AP Poll not power rated in top 25: Illinois ranked 12, Power Rated 31 Indiana ranked 20, PR 30 Iowa St ranked 22, PR 28 Boise St ranked 25, PR 39

On3@On3

BREAKING: Preseason College Football AP Poll🚨 on3.com/news/preseason…

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·7h

@Rowbear32 I mean, you don't have to. But teams that finish 19th in predictive metrics very likely aren't going to win the SEC going forward. My point is that his peak years before were 10+ points/100 above median teams in the SEC. Those peaks now would be slightly above median of SEC.

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Austin Robert@Rowbear32·7h

@NolaAnalytics Okay, why do I care if they won the SEC and made the Sweet 16?

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·7h

While undoubtedly a step up over whatever LSU has tried to do over the last 4 years, I'm curious what the ceiling winds up being here. Wade's squads topped out at #19 in KenPom in 2019, 4th in the SEC. That only gets you to 6th-8th best in the SEC over the last two years.

On3@On3

BREAKING: NC State head basketball coach Will Wade is expected to leave for LSU, @PeteNakos and @JoeTipton report. on3.com/news/where-thi…

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·7h

@Rowbear32 4th in Kenpom in the SEC

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Austin Robert@Rowbear32·7h

@NolaAnalytics What do you mean they topped out at 4th in the SEC? He won the SEC in 2019 and made the Sweet 16.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·7h

Will Wade left LSU as, at worst, a top 5ish coach in the SEC in 2022. He'll re-enter the SEC somewhere in the 6-10 range, clearly steps behind the top 5. I'm sure LSU would happily take being what Georgia has been over these last two years, but I wonder if the ceiling is there.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·1d

Without contrasting incentives, the Jazz probably outpace the Pelicans by at least 8-10 wins this season. It's a pretty clear case study into the fact that we're diverging too far from rewarding the worst teams.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·1d

I think it's probably going to require some pretty creative solutions overall to actually get to the point where you are rewarding the worst teams, not those most committed to the tank. Pelicans will end up with the 8th worst record (easily) despite being ~ 2nd-5th worst team.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·1d

I'm not the biggest Silver fan overall, but something he nailed is that we currently don't even necessarily reward the worst teams in the NBA with the best odds. The 2026 Pelicans are a great example of it. We're currently rewarding teams that commit to tanking the most.

Tim Bontemps@TimBontemps

Adam Silver: “Going into next season, the incentives (regarding the lottery and tanking) will be completely different than they are now.”

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·1d

@GoBlueHasbulla Sure but was anyone arguing that leaving Cadeau open was the reason they won? It was just a smart move at the time that paid off and kept them in the game as underdogs (and again has no bearing on the game Friday)

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GoBlueHasbi@GoBlueHasbulla·1d

@NolaAnalytics As many have pointed out: RJ Davis playing the way he did is why UNC lost, it had nothing to do with leaving a bad shooter open

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·1d

This isn't relevant for this year because Cadeau is a much improved shooter, but the goal of ignoring a bad shooter to this degree isn't to have them shoot < 30% from 3; it's to funnel shots to an inefficient player and, for the rest of the shots, to provide better defense.

GoBlueHasbi@GoBlueHasbulla

“Nate Oats baited a 19% shooter into shooting 40%. 4D chess!”

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·1d

In that Sweet 16 game, Cadeau had his highest shots-per-minutes of the season, and he also played his fewest minutes for the season. Oats was able to get one of UNC's top 5 players off the court for the game. And while Cadeau shot 40% from 3, UNC as a team shot 39% from 2.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·3d

We are in the good old days.

T3@T3Bracketology

Alabama pre Nate Oats had only made the Sweet 16 three years in a row once, (1985-1987). This will now be Alabama's 4th consecutive year to at least the Sweet 16. Five of the last six years to this point. Coaching matters.🐘

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·16 Mar

@grantanicholls All this effort to watch the 9th best movie of 2025?

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g 🖤🫡@grantanicholls·16 Mar

g 2025 top 12 📼🏆🫡

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·12 Mar

A fun note on how standard deviations break on things like top NBA point totals in a game: There have been 92 games of 60+ points in NBA history. 51/92 of those games have had point totals ending in a 0 or 1. 75/92 have had point totals ending in a 0, 1, 2, or 3.

Micah Adams@MAdamsStatGuy

Bam Adebayo broke math. His 83-point game was 8.5 standard deviations above his career average (or ~1 in 53 quadrillion) Based on career avgs, its like: Patrick Mahomes passing for 915 yards Justin Verlander throwing 214 pitches in a start Wilt Chamberlain grabbing 79 rebounds

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·11 Mar

"Myles Garrett should've stopped at 22.5 sacks rather than taking Strahan's mark"

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·11 Mar

Does any other sport treat their ~25th-40th best player of all time like this?

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·9 Mar

Probably still need a good bit of calibration here when it comes to expectations next season: Saints are still: distant 2nd in odds to win NFC South 13th in odds to win NFC 24th in odds to win Super Bowl

Scott Kushner@ScottDKushner

Well, the Saints are definitely not sitting back for another year to rebuild. After a hypeless offseason in 2025, they're improving the roster dramatically in free agency. Expectations ratcheting back up in a hurry.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·9 Mar

It's better than drafting Love high, but the Saints break the cardinal rule of these top RB contracts: # years on contract when signed by current team: Saquon: 2 CMC: 2 Henry: 2 Kenneth Walker: 3 Etienne: 4

NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics

While I'm not the biggest fan of Etienne, this is the type of move to make if you want to make a big upgrade to your RB room. Don't spend your most valuable asset on a -EV move with Love at 8; pay a good RB (preferably a guy like Walker) top money on a SHORT deal.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·6 Mar

Like I mentioned before, if the Eagles and Ravens start using a strategy (paying top end RBs top end $ for short contracts), it's probably justification enough to use it yourself even without digging too much deeper.

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·6 Mar

SleeperNFL@SleeperNFL

.@AlbertBreer lists the Saints as a suitor for RB Travis Etienne. “Etienne could wind up at over $10M per year, and could fit with a team like the Saints.”

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NOLA Analytics@NolaAnalytics·4 Mar

Something that's been figured out in the NBA is that a lot of the adjusted +/- metrics can be skewed by outlier teams. So in modern college basketball where the best teams are better than average teams by a higher margin than ever, it makes sense that BPM is getting skewed.

AKelly@andlankell

BPM inflation is an interesting angle in draft analysis. There's been 10 high major freshmen with >12 BPM in Bart history, and there's 3 in just this class (and 4 in last 2 years). Expanding to >11 BPM, there's 5 guys of the 14 total in this class alone.

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@Rowbear32 @GoBlueHasbulla @grantanicholls @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates