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Nora 🦋
3.5K posts
Nora 🦋
@Nora_pics
Curator of Random Thoughts & Erratic Activities, with a heart that falls too softly 💞 || DM 📥 for Pr/Ads || RT not Endorsement.
Chicago, IL Katılım Nisan 2022
281 Takip Edilen468 Takipçiler
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Nora 🦋 retweetledi
@nikitabier @ianmiles You mind giving @OptionsBuffett a look Nikita? I’d love for you to take a look at his antics and determine whether this behavior is allowed on X
Financhle@Financhle
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@ianmiles Perhaps it's not the algorithm but rather, the sudden pivot from politics to promoting scam coins?
I have seen users lose some reach after engaging in criminal activity and robbing their followers.
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@WheelieInvestor It is $453 now. Same pattern for MU, drops AH but always reclaims and flips higher near market open
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@TraderJonesy Genuine question. Your pinned post says “no idea exceeds 3-6% of total capital.” With a 122k loss and a portfolio of roughly 700k the math says you exceeded 3-6% with current idea.
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This month trading $SPY will haunt me for a long time.
I am in with new dates and strikes with remaining equity. Realized the L on the old cons.
Still green on the year thankfully. By a little.
I am not done with the trade. Just adjusted it.
But had to show this for transparency so you all can see in a couple of months time that no hot streak lasts forever. And losses are apart of the game.
What matters is how often you win vs lose vs risk and whether you stay true to your system in the long run.
What a terrible week and month it has been.
I am down, but not out. Just in new cons.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
$SPY #SPX #SP500
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They keep shooting for 1% days here with max premarket gamma at 6950. PPI ignored for now as predicted. This can change as the market opens… not buying today. VIX futures expire in 24hrs and there’s a pretty hefty spread between spot and the expiring contract that needs to resolve. Will see how that plays out first.
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@saltydocEM Crazy QQQ over $621, SPY over $688. Smart money will sell into retail today.
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@saltydocEM Yep. I do see there are some noticeable algo pumps at 3AM algo past few days😅
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@Nora_pics There’s some early morning strategy to this where you counter against it once they run their first 30-60 min of giddy buying or selling.
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The #SP500 futures seeing some weakness!
How the hell are we all feeling???
Hopefully it holds.
Probability once again favors a 70% chance of 642 by Wednesday and a 85% chance by Thursday...
But hey.. Ill take a 2.5% drop tomorrow instead! 🩸
$SPX $SPY
GIF
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SPX rallied 2.9% today. This marks the first time in 90 trading days that SPX finished at least 2.85% above the prior close.
Historically, these outsized upside shocks have tended to precede higher volatility rather than sustained momentum. Looking back to 2006, similar occurrences have generally been followed by choppier price action and weaker risk‑adjusted returns over the subsequent one to two weeks.
What stands out in the data:
1) Near term returns skew negative. Average performance is negative across every horizon from 1 to 10 days, indicating poor follow through after the initial surge.
2) Weakness tends to deepen with time. Drawdowns are modest early but deteriorate meaningfully after Day 4, with the Days 6-8 window showing the worst combination of win rate and average return.
3) Volatility increases with a lag. The largest downside outcomes do not occur immediately; historical worst‑cases widen from single digit declines early on to roughly ‑20% or more within two weeks.
4) Upside tails are narrow. Strong positive follow through beyond one week is rare and largely driven by a single historical episode.
5) Even at horizons where outcomes are positive roughly 50% of the time, average returns remain firmly negative, implying losses have historically outweighed gains.
Bottom line:
Large upside shock days have tended to mark inflection points within downtrends rather than new trend accelerations. Price action becomes choppier and risk skews to the downside. History argues for expecting higher volatility and poorer risk-adjusted returns, not a smooth continuation higher.
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Nora 🦋 retweetledi
Another solid day.
$ALB and the other four stocks in my portfolio are still indicating to be a hold for tomorrow.
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@LifeLessonsAcad @InvestFreedom05 You think of locking gains for $SNDK or $WDC yet? MU ALB LRCX still can keep running
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@InvestFreedom05 So far my momentum calculation is telling me to hold
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So let me get this straight Nvidia $NVDA:
- Even though your stock price has soared +700% since early 2022, your forward P/E ratio goes from nearly 80 down to 26, meaning the stock is at a CHEAPER valuation since then.
- Operating margins are near their all time highs, at an astounding 63.2% right now, meaning they're better than ever at turning revenues into profits.
- Their net income has increased EVERY single quarter over the last 3 years, with the exception of Q2 2025. Q3 2022 --> $680 Million
Q3 2025 --> $31.91 BILLION (+4,593%)
And yet somehow people are bearish on the future? Lol.
#nvidia #stocks
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