NoseKnowsAnalytics

Men's Elite 8 Card — NoseKnows Analytics One play clears threshold. Iowa/Illinois Over 137.5 | 1.0u Model projects 143.0. Market at 137.5. +5.5 gap. Two elite offenses, market pricing this like a defensive grind because of the seeds. The model doesn't care about seeds. Near-miss: Purdue +6.5 — Model has AZ by 3.9, not 6.5. Worth watching if the line moves. 📊 NoseKnows Analytics

Women's Sweet 16 Card — NoseKnows Analytics All four games, same signal. Michigan/Louisville Over 142.5 | 1.0u Texas/Kentucky Over 131.5 | 1.0u SC/Oklahoma Over 153.5 | 1.0u TCU/Virginia Over 130.5 | 1.0u Pace and elite offenses doing the work today. Market is sleeping on scoring in every game. #sweet16 #WomensBasketball #MarchMadness #NoseKnows

Saturday NCAA Lacrosse Card — NoseKnows Analytics (2.0u ea) Brown +7.5 | Princeton @ Brown Canisius +7.5 | Canisius @ Siena NJIT +4.5 | NJIT @ Vermont Binghamton +3.5 | Binghamton @ Delaware ND/Virginia Over 24.5

🎯 Saturday MLB F5 Card — NoseKnows Analytics TBR/STL Over 3.5 (-130) .75Units BetMGM BOS/CIN Over 4.0 (-102) 1Unit BetMGM <- best line on the slate COL/MIA Over 4.0 (-118) 1 Unit BetMGM CWS/MIL Over 4.5 (-110) .5 Unit BetMGM ARI/LAD Under 5.0 (-125) 1 Unit BetMGM All BetMGM. Line shopping found 4.0 totals where FD was sitting at 4.5. That's the edge. 5 plays. Trust the model.

UCONN Game— 2H Over 67.5 (-115) | +48.1% UNC +12.5 2H (-115) | +42.5%

Women's Sweet 16. 3 plays. All UNDERS — plus one monster spread value. UConn/UNC U135.5 -110 · 2.0u (+65.8%) UNC +29.5 -110 · 2.0u (+71.9%) LSU/Duke U145.5 -110 · 2.0u (+70.8%) Model says UConn is 15 pts better than UNC — not 30. And elite defenses don't let totals hit 145. #WomensBasketball #MarchMadness #NoseKnows

All 2H lines — PASS. Existing ticket is 96% to cash. Sit tight

Women’s Sweet 16. VAN vs ND. One play. Under 151.5 (-110) ·1.5u Two of the best defenses in the country. Market priced the star guards (Blakes 27.1, Hidalgo 25.2) and forgot who they’re playing against. Model true total: 139.5. Gap: -12. Defense travels in March. #WomensBasketball #MarchMadness #NoseKnows #Sweet16

Sweet 16 scan complete. 2 plays — both UNDERS. First time we've gone under-heavy. ALA/Michigan U172.5 -110 · 2.0u Holloway OUT. Michigan's defense is top-ranked. Market hasn't adjusted enough. ISU/Tennessee U140.5 -110 · 1.5u Jefferson GTD, hasn't practiced all week. Two slow teams, one shorthanded. Injury intel is edge. One bonus flag: The model also shows UConn as the true favorite in MSU/UConn (UConn by 4.0 vs MSU -1.5 on the spread). Not a deployable play — spread EV not calculated — but worth watching in-game if the live window opens up. #MarchMadness #NCAATournament #NoseKnows #Sweet16

Friday MLB slate modeled. 8 games. 0 plays. Market efficient today — juice killed every edge. Closest miss: NYY/SF F5 O4.5 at +106 (+17% EV, threshold is +20%). Not every day has action. Protecting units IS a position. Next play posts when the number is right. Playable range summary — if you see better juice on any book: Would play at NYY@SFG O4.5 +115 or better ARI@LAD O4.5 -105 or better ATH@TOR O4.5 +105 or better All others - Heavy juice - No realistic number #MLB #NoseKnows #Discipline

Full day results — March 26. MLB Opening Day: 6-4 · +3.7U NCAA Sweet 16: 3-1 · +2.66 U Combined: 9-5 · +6.36 · +28.9% ROI Two sports. One model. Same process. #MLB #MarchMadness #OpeningDay #NoseKnows #Accountability

Opening Day Results: 6W · 4L (+3.7U) WIN WSH@CHC O4.0 +118 · 2u WIN CWS@MIL O4.5 +115 · 2u WIN TEX@PHI O4.5 +118 · 2u WIN ARI@LAD O4.5 -122 · 1.5u WIN CLE@SEA O3.5 -105 · 1u WIN DET@SDP O3.5 -105 · 1u LOSS TB@STL O4.5 +106 · 2u LOSS BOS@CIN O5.5 +188 · 2u LOSS LAA@HOU O4.5 +110 · 1.5u LOSS ARI ML +195 · 1u Two losses on totals were pure variance — BOS/CIN and LAA/HOU each produced 3 runs against model projections of 7.5+ and 8.4. Crochet and Kikuchi both dominated. ARI ML was a live-with-it correlated position that didn't hit. Model thesis was correct on 9 of 10 directionally.

Live halftime report. Two Sweet 16 games in progress. Purdue/Texas — riding Full Game O148.5 (85% to cash). Adding 2H O75.5 at +58% EV. 1.5u. Nebraska/Iowa — Full Game O131.5 is a near lock (97%). Iowa shot 60% from 3 in H1 — that won't repeat. No 2H action. Let it ride. Discipline is a position too. #MarchMadness #NCAATournament #NoseKnows #LiveBetting

Sweet 16 LIVE DEPLOYMENT: Purdue/Texas HALFTIME SCORE: 39-35 (74 Total) PRE-GAME POSITION: Over 148.5 (1.5u) The market just hung a 2H Total of 75.5. They are pricing in a massive second-half pace "grind" that isn't supported by the data. THE LIVE PLAY: 2H OVER 75.5 (1.5u) (Projected 2H Points: 86.5. A massive +11 point gap. Box score check: Purdue shot 25% from 3, Texas shot 38%. Only 6 total turnovers. 10 offensive rebounds. This game is moving at 3.7 pts/min and the efficiency is due for an upward tick). Syndicate Note: Our pre-game Over 148.5 now has an 85% implied cash probability. By hitting the 2H Over, we are creating a highly correlated +EV stack. If the pace holds, we sweep the board. We are PASSING on the Texas +3.5 2H spread. Purdue’s shooting regression is coming, and they have the size to pull away. We stick to the total.

Opening Day slate is loaded. 10 F5 plays identified. The numbers don't lie. Full card below. NoseKnows Analytics — Opening Day 3.26.26 BOS @ CIN O5.5 +188 2.0u WSH @ CHC O4.0 +118 2.0u CWS @ MIL O4.5 +115 2.0u TEX @ PHI O4.5 +118 2.0u TB @ STL O4.5 +106 2.0u LAA @ HOU O4.5 +110 1.5u ARI @ LAD O4.5 -122 1.5u ARI @ LAD ARI ML+195 1.0u CLE @ SEA O3.5 -105 1.0u DET @ SDP O3.5 -105 1.0u model-derived · not financial advice@NoseKnowsAnalytics

CBB Post-Game Debrief The Results: 0-2 (-2.0u) Illinois St / Dayton OVER 138.5 (Final: 116) Nevada / Auburn OVER 154.5 (Final: 144) Syndicate Note: We extracted pristine Closing Line Value (CLV) on both of these numbers yesterday, but short-term variance bit us hard. Both games dragged into absolute rock fights and stayed way under the pace projections. Amateur touts delete their tweets and hide when they have an 0-2 night. We put the ledger front and center. CLV is the only math that matters over a 1,000-bet sample size, but you still have to eat the short-term losses. We log the -2.0u, protect our remaining capital, and trust the engine. The CBB slate is cleared. Full focus is now on MLB Opening Day.