Amit Segal@AmitSegal
โHeโs playing the political game with the most extreme elements in Israeli society. It wonโt end well,โ Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said in January 2023, just weeks after Netanyahuโs new coalition took office. The judicial reform was beginning to erupt, and the ultra-Orthodox parties were already blackmailing their way toward broader military exemptions. Lapid was reflecting the consensus when he predicted the government would fall by 2024, or โmaybe even sooner.โ When the protests continued to balloon and Netanyahu declared that this government would use โevery dayโ of its mandate, he was greeted with laughter and disbelief. He was right.
Yesterday, the Knesset officially set a date: Elections will be held on the originally scheduled October 27, the latest day permitted by law. This is the first time elections have been held on schedule in 38 years and the first government to complete a full term in 53 years. Despite the presence of both ultra-Orthodox parties, divine intervention had nothing to do with this coalitionโs longevity. The plain truth is that the weaker the parties, the stronger the coalition: none of the far-right parties, the ultra-Orthodox parties, or the quickly fading New Hope had many other coalition optionsโand little to gain from another election.
One implication of having an election date is that it sets up the competition before the competition: who gets what slot on the party lists. Under Israeli election law, political parties must finalize and formally submit their candidate slates to the Central Elections Committee by the 47th day before the election. And where there are hard deadlines, limited spots, and no shortage of candidates, chaos follows.
A lot of airlines have an arrangement under which they take care of each otherโs passengers in the event of unscheduled cancellations. There seems to be a similar agreement among the parties of the change bloc. Until two months ago, Bennett was busy administering placement testsโliterallyโto dozens of prospective candidates who besieged his offices, while Eisenkot could barely find enough candidates for the top 10.
Now, as Yashar! takes off and closes in on Likud while Beyachad is grounded, the problem has reversed. Bennett has already announced eight candidates when, according to recent polls, that is roughly the number of seats his share of a joint list with Lapid would receive. Eisenkot, on the other hand, still needs to fill at least 15 more slots.
With Eisenkot, there are no placement or loyalty tests, but there is an orderly process for the flood of applicants. First comes coordination in principle with other parties to verify who is courting whom, in order to prevent future opportunism and midterm party-hopping. Afterward comes a meeting with one of the senior team members, followed by a meeting with the party chairman himself. The candidates will be arranged in groups of 10: two safe tiers of 10 and a third that could become safe depending on final polling. Within each group, there will be roughly equal gender representation as well as age diversity. Eisenkot can call in plenty of big names, but most of themโlike himโare old enough that โfresh faceโ is no longer part of the pitch.
Those who do not make the list may instead be selected for the โList of 200.โ These are the people expected to make up the professional ranks of the next government if the political tide turns: ministry directors general, heads of public authorities, deputy directors general, and board chairmen.
Above all, the frantic pace at which things have been managed until now makes it easy to forget that the elections are still a long way off. There are still two months until the candidate lists close. At the equivalent point in previous election cycles, the Knesset had not even been dissolved yet, and no mergers had taken place. Bennettโs early move to unite with Lapid shuffled the deck and effectively pressed the WhatsApp-style double speed button on the entire race. Eisenkot, as is well known, does not operate with that kind of temperament. In short, the door is still open, and there is still plenty of room on board.