@AdamMancini4 Adam, does 7382 still act as a possible support here? (prior target level on the way up)
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Ocean Trade
16 posts
Again there nothing to do up here in #ES_F but ride runner until we get an injection of volatility. Monday was last one which got us long on the 7199 backtest/7213 failed breakdown at 12:20PM.
7377 1st micro/weak support (watch traps), 7369 below. 7400 (hit), 7411, 7426 above
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Note: Same drill as everyday, just nothing until to do until we get an injection of proper volatility (elevator down sell) like Monday. When we do get one, expect major top calls from social media (just like on Monday) - key to ignore this and calmly stalk planned setups
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@AdamMancini4 I had to mess with /ES in the pre-mkt, didn’t I? …. clawing my way back to break-even, 7355 gets me back to ‘no evidence of a crime’.
Think about the rules, follow the rules. My first screw-up trading futures on /ES!
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Note: Here is screen grab from last nights newsletter specifying the 7366 final target. There is unfortunately nothing of quality worth trading now - simply let your runner work for upside targets mentioned in initial morning post. 7342 will be a key pivot with 7313 below
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Remember headlines just provide excuse/liquidity for technical moves that were already going to occur in #ES_F. 0 coincidence this weeks low was 7199 exactly (given Saturday-backtest of last weeks flag breakout).
Today's 7366 high was explicit final target from newsletter ystd
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
The plan for this week was given clearly Saturday in #ES_F: Backtest the 7198 bull flag breakout, then rally to 7345+. What did we do? We sold to 7199 Monday, rallied to 7345. Charting 101 Plan today: Ride runner, nothing to do. 7364, 7382, 7395 bonus slate. 7342, 7313 supports
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, provided we can stay clear of 7285 here (12.26 pm EST), is 7297 still the next recognizable target?
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Perfect follow through in #ES_F. This weeks setup was 7248 Failed Breakdown - newsletter readers got it Friday at 4pmI also live tweeted it at 8am.
Targets given were 7253 (hit), 7264 (hit), 7285 next. We are flagging & digesting last weeks rally to setup next big macro leg
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
The theme this week is consolidation and digestion in #ES_F to setup the next leg, with 7248 being the main pivot. Off to a good start. I posted at 8am (and in Friday's 4pm newsletter), 7248 reclaims trigger up. We got it. 1st target was 7253 (hit), 7264, 7285 above. Sell<7238
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@AdamMancini4 I finally have a rythm going with this chart. I have been studying newsletters and chart segments for months. Awesome to be on board ‘with flow’!
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High quality conditions today unlike last week & points are printing. #ES_F is consolidating after last weeks rally. 7248 reclaim was 1st trade this week. We triggered this morning. Targets were 7253 (hit), 7264 (hit), 7285 (not yet)
7240 must reclaim to pop now.7213, 7199 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Perfect follow through in #ES_F. This weeks setup was 7248 Failed Breakdown - newsletter readers got it Friday at 4pmI also live tweeted it at 8am. Targets given were 7253 (hit), 7264 (hit), 7285 next. We are flagging & digesting last weeks rally to setup next big macro leg
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@AdamMancini4 With /ES @ 6936 pre-market, is entry around here valid? (remaining targets 6949, 78). Or better to await emergence of next failed breakdown?
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CLosing update #ES_F: +100 points now on the long from the 6793 Failed Breakdown last eve. Now nothing to do but ride runner as we rally. 6903, 6912, then 6937 are next from here. This is what a 1 month flag breakout from last Tuesday looks like. Newsletter out soon with entries
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We are officially +100 points on our long from the 6793 Failed Breakdown last evening in #ES_F (for those who missed it, I gave the 6809 Reclaim at 8am). Targets given were 6848 main (hit). Bonus were 6872 (hit), 6886 (hit), 6903 (almost).
Lots more ahead. 6912, 6937 next above
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Runners still paying. 0 to do until the next selloff then bear trap/Failed Breakdown in #ES_F. 6809 reclaim was long trigger given live 8am (newsletter readers been long since 6592 last week). Targets given 8am were 6848 main (hit), 6872, 6886 bonus (hit) 6893, 6903, 6912 next
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We are running the targets. Readers know I trade 1 setup: The Failed Breakdown. We got it 830pm last evening when we swept the 6360 shelf, trapped shorts, and recovered in #ES_F
Today's targets were 6467 (hit), 6490 (hit). 6524 stretch target. Just ride your runner as posted 8am
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Little to do now but ride runners. Per 4pm newsletter, our #ES_F long setup last eve was the Failed Breakdown of 6360 (down to 6353). We 6360 at 830pm, recovered, and ripped. Targets were 6447 (hit), 6467 (hit). Next up are 6490, 6524. No supports of interest until 6415, 6385
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@EliteOptions2 Thanks Brando. I needed to see this right now.
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The hardest part of my journey wasn't the losses.
It was
Sitting alone.
Nobody to talk to.
Nobody who understood what I was going through.
Just me wondering if I was wasting my life chasing something that might never work.
If you're feeling the same way right now, hear me out:
It doesn't last forever.
Don't quit before your big breakthrough.
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@AdamMancini4 doing great here Adam, thank you! What are our next targets if we can clear 6832?
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Once again evening traders got all the action in #ES_F. 6778-82 is key. Its reclaim (given in 4pm newsletter) took us to 6830 overnight.
I posted 6778-82 was 1st support today, just quickly trapped again. Its weak now. 6798, 6813, 6829-32 if ES wants more. 6758 next support down
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
The long continues to pay in #ES_F. Monday 9:25PM I posted 6612 reclaim gets us long. Main was 6778-82, and we hit. In 4pm newsletter, I posted traps of 6778-82 trigger back up, we got it to 6830 830pm Plan today: 6778-82 (watch traps), 6758=supports. 6798, 6813, 6829-30 targets
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After an "elevator down" sell, we got a good short squeeze/long trigger in #ES_F. I posted at 9:25AM that the 6610-12 recovery starts a run. We recovered a little after 12am and went +86
Plan: Bears fully control until 6716 recovers. 6663, 6652=supports to setup 6690, 6704, 6716
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Note: Still grinding lower in ES - never knife catch a support while a sell ago is on. They only turn off when we get a Failed Breakdown. Watch for recoveries of 6610-12 now, we set a nice 33 point low there. 6598, 6573 below now
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Note: Watch for traps of Tuesday's 6718 low as well. Bonus if we can tag 6704 and get this
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The morning "elevator down" dip continues and as always, the squeeze doesn't begin until we reclaim. 6739 was support posted and #ES_F agreed - held for 45mins, bounced 20 points, failed.
6739 must recover to pop to 6758, 6772, 6778-82 (bears control below). 6711, 6704 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Standard "elevator down" dip to begin the day in #ES_F and volatility remains excellent. After running to 6843 target yesterday, bears took over overnight. 6782 has been key support, failed 6772, 6758, 6739 (given in newsletter) were next down. Bulls must recover 6778-82 to run
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@AdamMancini4 Adam - ‘traps’ - does that refer to people who have shorted /ES?
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6842 a brick wall now in #ES_F. Today's long trigger given 9:18AM was 6842 recovery. We got it, ran to 6876 3rd target. We then sold to 6813 support, and I posted ~6842 had to recover to rally again. Rejected there, back to 6813
Watch traps of 6813 now. 6795, 6783 below now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We've got some volatility in #ES_F and levels respecting well. Trade #1 was the 6842 recovery given at 9:18AM. Targets were 6855 (hit), 6863-66 (hit), 6876 (hit). Down went. 6813 was bottom support and we hit 6814 and popped. 6842 must reclaim to rally again now same upsides
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@AdamMancini4 Thanks for everything Adam. First day at this, 4 out of my 5 trades went my way. Big smile here.
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Closing update #ES_F: Lots of two way action to go nowhere - have to trade it level to level. Hold runner now. 6852, 6873, then 6899 if ES wants more. Overnight, bulls want to hold 6808/6795 or back down we go. Newsletter out soon with entries
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We are now +100 points in #ES_F. The long setup was the 6742 reclaim given earlier. We got it. Targets were 6808 main (hit), then 6832 (hit). Bonus were 6843 (hit), then 6852, 6873, then 6899 next. Just hold runner now
Lots of action to go absolutely nowhere from last few days
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
#ES_F is the most repetitive asset in the world and repeats the same cycles everyday. Big sell this morning - Failed Breakdown always comes. 6742 reclaim trigger. Targets I gave were 6808 main (hit exact, dipped, cleared). 6832 next, almost here Huge res. 6843, 6852 above
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, if we reliably clear 6808, are there intermediate target levels prior to going up to 6832?
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Ultra precise technicals in #ES_F. I posted the 6742 Failed breakdown was long trigger. We got it. Targets given were 6759 (hit), 6773-76 (hit), 6784 (hit), 6808 (hit exact). Now, we just ride runner.
Above 6808 we may our way back to 6832. Bulls regain control fully above there
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Good multi-level run in #ES_F, but as warned, moves come and go fast now. Take your profits, leave runners. 6742 overnight low Failed Breakdown was long trigger given. We got it. Targets were 6759 (hit), 6773-76 (hit), 6784 (hit). 6808 next, then onto 6832. Bears control <6832
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@AdamMancini4 Good morning Adam. Are we now clear of the needed breadown/squeeze (6768 low) and therefore likely to see the next upwards levels move begin? (newcomer to this /ES trading, 'learning the ropes')
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Note: I warned about this in Friday's 4pm newsletter, and all setups from that newsletter remained unchanged after the initial 40-100 point gap down referenced.
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Another weekend of geopolitical headlines, but as always if markets were as easy as trading the obvious headlines everyone would be rich. Markets trap and *every* single war related dip in #ES_F has been historically bought. It is essential though to wait for the Failed Breakdown
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@EliteOptions2 Still buried in books, taking notes - but taking this advice on 'as if' it is current reality. Thank you again Brando.
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I'll probably lose $1M in a single day this year and I'm completely fine with that.
Let me explain why that statement doesn't scare me anymore.
I've lost $800k in one day before. November 20th. One session.
Before that? $600k in Tokyo. $150k on Amazon years ago.
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And here's what nobody tells you about trading at scale:
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When you're trading 100 lots of $NQ, a bad day can be seven figures.
That's not a mistake. That's math.
Most traders can't mentally handle this reality. So they never scale.
They stay small forever. "I'm comfortable with $10k risk."
Great. You'll make $10k returns. Maybe.
But you'll never make life-changing money. Because you're not willing to accept life-changing risk.
I am. Not recklessly. But strategically.
I know that if I want to make $900k in 9 days, I have to accept that I might lose $1M in one.
That's the trade-off. And I've made peace with it.
Because here's the key: As long as you're not completely blown up, the loss is just information.
It tells you what went wrong. What to adjust. What to avoid next time.
I lost $800k in November. You know what I did after?
Studied it. Journaled it. Built new rules around it.
"Don't average down on losing futures positions. Ever."
That one rule - learned from an $800k loss - has saved me multiples of that since.
The loss was expensive tuition. But the lesson was worth more than the cost.
Most traders take a small loss and spiral. Quit. Blow up emotionally.
I take a big loss and extract the lesson. Then apply it.
That's the difference. Not intelligence. Not skill.
Emotional capacity to process large losses without breaking.
And that capacity is built over years. You don't start with it.
You develop it by taking losses. Learning from them. Surviving them. Growing from them.
Survival means accepting that losses…big losses…are coming.
So start embracing them.
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