OFEK Zimerman

אם הנאסד״ק עוד גג 5% למטה מפה טראמפ מקפל הכל שוק ההון זה הדבר שהכי חשוב לו והכי מתגאה בו

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "If the war stops but Iran remains a threat… we could face oil above $100, even near $150 for years." On the global outlook: "We’re going to have a global recession."

Coming soon… 🇮🇱

𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗻 I want to start by giving Iran credit. In my Samson theory below, before the war began, I wrote that one possible scenario was that Iran would try to pull a Samson. If they felt cornered, they might try to hurt everyone around them and drag the region down with them. What actually happened is not exactly Samson, but it is close. Instead of pure destruction, Iran made a very rational move. Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily. The only real lever they have is oil. Their survival does not depend on winning the war. It depends on spiking oil toward 200 and creating pressure inside the United States. If oil goes high enough, Trump will face serious domestic pressure. So that is exactly what they are trying to do in any way possible, including bombing their own allies. I give them credit. It is a smart move. They are betting that Trump might chicken out if oil spikes hard enough. If oil reaches 200, that scenario becomes very real. For Iran, this is the only asymmetric weapon they have against a far superior adversary. Now we are entering a real game of chicken. Trump can signal that he is ready to destroy or take over Kharg Island. If that happens it is basically game over for Iran Islamic Regime. Iran on the other side is trying to push oil toward 200. If that happens it could become game over for Trump politically. Both sides escalating further means a crash scenario. It also seems that Israel and the United States may not have identical objectives in this war. Israel appears to want regime change. Trump has midterms. He cannot afford oil at 200. For Trump, two things would likely be enough to claim victory in this war. First, getting the enriched uranium out of Iran and proving that their nuclear capabilities have been destroyed. Second, pushing the longer range ballistic missile program back years, if not decades. There is no doubt that Israel and the United States are winning the military side of this war. Iran has already taken significant damage from these strikes that will take many years to recover. The real question is what Iran does next. It seems Iran understands the situation. Their priority now is probably survival of the regime. They also understand that Trump will want a fast win. So their strategy may be to absorb the damage while creating nuisance and pressure for another month or two, but not going all the way by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would force Trump to take or destroy Kharg Island, hoping the Americans eventually settle for a deal. That is where the game theory becomes very real.