OldBlokeCrypto
2.4K posts

OldBlokeCrypto
@OldBlokeCrypto
Old curmudgeon & derivatives trader from Australia. ASX trader since '97. Crypto trader since '17. Trading $ETH, $SOL & select alts. Not financial advice.
Queensland, Australia Katılım Ocak 2021
40 Takip Edilen273 Takipçiler
OldBlokeCrypto retweetledi

Kamala is quite literally a communist.
She wants not merely equal opportunity, but equal outcomes.
•Nic•@AsTheWorldBurnz
26. Kamala Harris is a communist and her word choices give it away. “Equitable distribution” “equity” It’s a repackaged version of Karl Marx’ popularized slogan “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs” meaning a redistribution of wealth.
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@CramerTracker You're using the wrong tense. The correct one is "lost". Thanks. 👍
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@CramerTracker He probably forgot..he's good at that, it seems. 🤷♂️
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And yes, he did say Kamala was the better choice last week lol x.com/cramertracker/…
Inverse Cramer@CramerTracker
JIM CRAMER: A president Harris would “absolutely, no doubt about it be good for the stock market and American business" It's over
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@TraderMotif You & me both mate. Waiting for that drop off in volatility, like you. It's a good sign when that happens. 👌
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The amount of engagement posting I’m seeing today is cringe. I get why everyone laps it up. They give you hope. You’re praying your bags go back up after your favourite influencer told you bottom was in for the tenth time in a row.
My honest thoughts..
I have no idea if bottom is in or when it’ll be in and I do not care. It’s of course an area of real interest and a level I’ve mentioned previously (monthly reset zone). Unlikely to V bottom. Anticipating that we may range down here for a little while. How the structure forms will be key. I’ll be looking for a drop off in volatility followed by some baiting followed by some boring compression. Then we’ll see what happens.
Again, I know nothing, your favourite influencer knows nothing and you’re just going to have to be patient here. You just have to learn from this and do better next time.
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@CrypNuevo H1 timeframe = noise. D1 timeframe is far more predictive, as is the W1. The D1 is still showing that same wick you refer to, BTW.
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@CryptoMichNL Thanks for a really well reasoned analysis. 👍
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Capitulation is what has been happening in the past two weeks and has likely ended.
#Ethereum has dropped to a new low for the first time in six months.
#Bitcoin hits $58,000.
#Altcoins bleeding to a new bear market low.
However, Ethereum is copypasting Bitcoin. Here's why.
Before I continue, please watch my latest YouTube video where I'm explaining all scenarios:
youtube.com/watch?v=cJnLTV…
In the previous weeks, Ethereum has been showing a lot of weakness after the Ethereum ETF got listed. The reasoning is simple.
- The outflow of the Grayscale's Trust has been impressive, through which that has given a dampening impact of the Ethereum ETF after listing. The first day there was an outflow of $400 million and this has quicly come down to only $60 million last Friday.
- Jump Trading has been liquidating a ton of assets as they started offloading $500M in $ETH just 2 days after the ETF listing took place and that continued over this weekend.
That has been the primary reason of the current weakness in the markets surrounding Ethereum and as a reason, we've seen that the entire Ethereum ecosystem has been continuing their cascade downwards into what we call: Capitulation.
Capitulation is a phrase often used for such a heavy correction where double digit losses are happening in a very short manner of time. And, to be fair, I'd prefer to have such a heavy correction, because then you're quite sure that it's close to over. Slow bleed is often the most painful, time consuming way of corrections.
Now, this downwards fall has accelerated over the course of the past week due to several reasons.
- Trump losing in the battle with Kamala Harris as Kamala starts to gain more votes in the polls.
- Israel/Gaza war continues to be stronger due to the fact that the leader of Hamas has been killed in Iran.
- UK is getting destroyed after multiple stabbings have been taking place.
- Terrible economic data on the labor market coming out on Friday through which the call for rate cuts have significantly increased and the likelihood of a potential recession has increased as well.
- Japan hitting the worst stock market day since Black Monday in 1987.
All concerns that accelerated the capitulation, through which the question remains. What to look for and when is this going to turn?
Well, $ETH has clearly gone for the second route as $3,100 couldn't hold and it only took 2 days to get to new lows, which means that we're taking liquidity here.
The plus side is that there's a big CME gap to $63K, where the old one at $58.5K is getting closed.
The key things to watch in the upcoming weeks:
- $BTC / $ETH flows on the ETF. If ETH, especially ETH, starts to become positive, that would be the ideal trigger for the markets to surge.
- Continued unrest on the markets, leading to Gold to break to new highs and the Dollar & Yields to fall. That would be a trigger for the markets to rally, likely hand-in-hand with the upper key thing to watch.
- Reclaims of certain levels, for instance $ETH to hold above 0.044-0.045 BTC and reverse back up.
- Outcome of the $XRP lawsuit.
I think that this capitulation is heavy, but is, given TA, close to their HTF support levels and the heaviest panic we could have.
If you enjoyed this post, please leave a like and a follow!

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@puming3 From retail, yes, not institutions. They will be looking to scoop up cheap blue-chips like ETH, SOL & BTC.
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$ETH. D1 chart. Simple. We've breached the 200EMA, Now between it and the HTF range low @ $2,791.
As I posted earlier, most of the downside liquidity has now been taken, with massive upside liquidity starting around $3,350. Only panic selling will push price down to the range low.
So either we head higher next or tag the range low & then head higher, but building a long position is the obvious next move by the MM. No need to over-complicate the obvious.

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$ETH. D1 chart. As I posted yesterday and earlier this week, the next logical support for #ETH is the HTF range low @ $2,791. I have another buy order set at $2,800, should price get there.
Interestingly, the 50EMA on the weekly (a stronger support than compared to the 200EMA on the daily IMO) is currently sitting at $2,845, so it will be interesting to see how price reacts to that level too.

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@CramerTracker @jimcramer A broken clock is right twice a day. Ain't that right, Jimbo?😏
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@cameron @GaryGensler Because his masters in the politburo have told him he's done enough damage and should keep his head down for now. He can crawl back out from under his rock if/when they win the election.
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Feels like @GaryGensler crawled under a rock. Missing his CNBC propaganda segments promoting the war on crypto. Why are you ghosting us Gary?
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@CrypNuevo Imagine if Uncle Jerry got spooked into an emergency rate cut. Wouldn't that change the market trajectory in a hurry?!
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Unemployment Rate at 4.3% instead of 4.1% and the market is panicking!
• VIX (Volatility Index) is up 45% in just one day... currently at 27!
• $2.9 TRILLION wiped out from stocks today. THE WORST DAY SINCE 2020 COVID CRASH.
• JP Morgan sees (2) 50bsp rate cuts in September and November.
• Goldman Sachs sees (3) 25bsp rate cuts in September, November and December.
Also the Sahm Rule has been triggered - it has predicted every recession since 1970s correctly with only 2 false positives that ended up being correct with a delay of a few months.
Claudia Sahm just spoke and said that "we're not in a recession but the odds of entering a recession in the next 3 months are high."
This would also allign with the fact that we always get a recession after the first interes rate cut, which will happen in September. We also had the usual stock rally after a rate pause.
Sure, it’s possible that this time could be different and that's what the FED will be hoping for whilst cutting rates from September to reduce the impact.
Time will tell whether the markets are overreacting or we're heading into a recession later this year.

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$ETH. 1 week liquidations heatmap. The only remaining large pool of liquidity I could find to the downside is sitting at $2,950. From a MM perspective, there's not much point in pushing lower than that.
Of course, the HTF range low @ $2,791 could be reached as a result of panic selling, but IMO the MM is not aiming for that level. He's more likely to start building a long position now.
Personally, I picked up another addition to my #ETH HTF long @ $3,000 last night. If we hit the range low, you'd better believe I will be adding further too.
Remember, buy on red days, sell on green days.

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@devchart Is that all? Talk about clickbait - I thought it was something serious like Jim Cramer going all in long. 😆
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$ETH. Weekly liquidations heatmap. I posted yesterday about the downside wicking & liquidity that was an attractive target for the MM...and he sure went for it.
However, he has left a big pool of more liquidity right below today's low..and another downside wick.
I won't be surprised if he's back soon for some more juicy liquidity.
Personally, I added to my HTF long overnight when price hit $3,100.

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