Oliver B

HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They are a general-purpose primitive that are useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments. There has been extensive user demand in both of these areas, and builders will likely think of novel applications as well. Outcomes bring non-linearity, dated contracts, and an alternative form of derivative trading that does not involve leverage or liquidations. The outcome primitive expands the expressivity of HyperCore, while composing with other primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM. Outcomes are a work in progress and currently only being tested on testnet. Canonical markets based on objective settlement sources will be deployed once technical development is complete. Canonical markets will be denominated in USDH. Pending user feedback, the infrastructure will be extended to permissionless deployment.

I wrote EVERYBODY LOSES (out today!) because I believe sports fans—and really all Americans—deserve answers to basic questions that the people behind the betting boom have largely avoided. I was optimistic that I’d get to speak with sportsbook execs and league commissioners. But I was determined to shed light on how this industry really works, and how it thinks about customers, regardless. A reporting trip to New York is illustrative of what ended up happening. One of the first people I met that week was Chris Jones, then VP of communications at FanDuel. I assumed we were meeting to plan various interviews that he’d help arrange. But over the next 45 minutes, Jones explained why FanDuel would not be participating in my book. (He asked that I not share his reasons.) Afterward, I hustled across town to meet Nik Bonaddio, the former head of product at FanDuel. He was surprisingly reflective about his time there, conceding how “shitty” it was to offer misleading “risk-free” promotions and how he suspects that the vast majority of customers fail to understand that the house edge is considerably bigger on parlays, sportsbooks’ biggest moneymaker. Two days later, I took the train to the commuter town of Mamaroneck, home of Nigel Eccles, FanDuel's founding CEO. He, too, spoke expansively, expressing dismay about the trajectory of the sports betting industry. “I think their advertising is untruthful,” he said of sportsbooks in the U.S., including his former company. “They’re selling that you can win, but you can’t.” Toward the end of my trip, I met with Jessica Leeser, who had served as FanDuel’s director of brand and marketing insights. She shared revealing takeaways from internal customer surveys. For example, many of FanDuel’s customers said they were disinclined to recommend the app—not because they didn’t like the user experience, but because they were reluctant to admit they gamble. “Maybe there is some shame attached to it,” Leeser said, “or some embarrassment.” Over the ensuing months, I spoke with many other former and active employees at FanDuel, as well as at all the other top sportsbooks. (DraftKings was similarly uncooperative. I wasn’t even granted an interview with the person appointed, to much fanfare, as the industry’s first chief responsible gaming officer.) There are, to be sure, many people in the betting industry who insist sports gambling is perfectly safe and that customers are treated fairly. But the overall impression I gathered from interviewing more than 300 people is that sportsbooks are brazenly taking advantage of customers, and, in some cases, outright endangering them. A cautionary note from a former sportsbook executive sums that up. “You can make good money,” he told me, “but you don’t feel good about it, that’s for sure.” Americans have been cheated out of the sort of robust national debate that legalizing sports betting across the country would seem to warrant. I hope "EVERYBODY LOSES: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling" forces people to engage in that conversation, including those who would prefer this book come and go quietly. I could use your help. Anything you can do to spread the word is hugely appreciated. The link to the book is below 👇

The wait is over: Combos are officially live for everyone on Kalshi! Last week alone they did over $100m in volume. And it's compounding: our app grew 50% in November and we hit another volume record yesterday ~$340m. In traditional financial markets, traders bundle multi-leg options instead of buying separately to get better prices. Combos offer the same price improvement. Like with our other markets, there is no house: when you submit a Combo, traders compete in the open market to take the other side. We keep marching.

Henry is a great dude and I believe this incident was handled as fairly as possible. Decade old OSB's would all handle in the same manner. Another parallel would be your equites broker mispricing a trade. It would eventually be corrected in the same manner that NoVig is/has.

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