Nicole Danielle 🥥 🌴

@stphnfwlr To be clear I think foreign gov AI fuckery is just as likely. But this is not just randomly happening this way. Something one way or another is not right and we shouldn’t just write it off

@stphnfwlr The reports of weird things happening to people personally this time are soooooo widespread on social I’m 100% convinced that EITHER a foreign government is using AI to sow discord and division OR something had to have happened if it’s not that. TikTok is INSANE with stories

What to watch for people wanting to track the House: Dems have a *very* narrow path to 218 that’d entail —staying ahead in all uncalled CDs where they now lead (starting with CA21, CA49, CA47, ME02, OH9) —flipping GOP leads in 6 of 7 of: AKAL, AZ06, CO08, CA13, CA27, CA41, CA45

Where House stands, sprinkling my assessment with current count & AP/network calls: GOP currently leads in 222 seats, Dems in 213. Some leads still fragile. Staying somewhat conservative, I'd say 215 seats quite likely to be GOP, & 209 quite likely to be Dem. That leaves 11.

@BrendanKeefe That alone is 39k, and then whatever came in today too!

@BrendanKeefe There were 292k EARLY/absentee votes in Dekalb and sos is only showing 253k

Georgia vote still outstanding (based on expectations) Gwinnett 341,000 Chatham 87,000 Fulton 45,000 Cobb 31,000 Henry 24,000 Muskogee 19,000 DeKalb 16,000 10:14pm

In early vote in GA red counties early coming in redder than 2020 vote. Blue early are coming in bluer than 2020. It's gonna be a wild ride

Y’all need to chill. Pics of lines or not lines at one random polling location in a city tell you nothing. Relax we’ll know way more way earlier than normal tonight

If you mailed in your absentee ballot, please go to My Voter Page at mvp.sos.ga.gov/s/ to make VERIFY your ballot has been received. If you do not see it in your record as received, PLEASE GO VOTE at your polling location to protect your vote. This is your last opportunity.

Whoa - Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says more than half a million people have already voted in Georgia as of noon. That's on track to potentially have ~1.2 million Election Day votes. #gapol

I have a pretty strong suspicion that after the dust settles on the data in this election, one of the really big stories is going to be that accross the country, white men ended up voting for Kamala Harris at much much higher percentages than anyone predicted 🇺🇸 #ElectionDay

@sweetser_kyle @AccountableGOP Thank you!!

I voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Today, I voted for Kamala Harris. Go Vote!

@goshofar Interesting data point. Not sure which candidate that benefits - will be interesting to see!

@OnTheGoNicole EV for both groups have increased significantly from 2020. AAPI by ~56k. election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/202…

I’ve spent a LOT of time in the early vote data in Georgia and here’s my takeaway: there is a LOT of reason for both campaigns to be optimistic about it. And to be nervous. Let me show you why with models on if the vote in by county broke exactly like recent major races in GA- 🧵

@goshofar But if you’d like to know: Hispanic is at 3.2% of vote share, Asian is at 2.8% of vote share, and “Other” at 9.5%. I don’t have the historical numbers for comparison unfortunately, and haven’t dug deeper for these groups

@goshofar Very small portion of the electorate in GA - wont be able to tell much from it TBH

Oh one more quick note all of this math was through Friday 11/1 and end of early vote. A few more absentees have been added since then and haven’t been calculated in.

Who it’s good for so far depends on if it breaks like 2020, 2022 Senate, or 2022 Governor. Because with what’s in now, we could have a razor thin nail biter OR we could have a pretty significant advantage for either. There’s recent precedent for all of these possibilities! 16/end