WarrenAllYouCanEatBuffett

$ASPS Altisource doesn’t need to be right about home prices. It doesn’t need a recession. It doesn’t need a narrative that ends with a crash. It needs the mortgage system to behave like it usually does. Delinquent loans get to a point where they are operational events that a servicer must process. When that happens, ASPS facilitates the process, and the incremental revenue will show up disproportionately in EBITDA. The market, meanwhile, is still looking backward. It sees the dilution. It sees the S-3. It sees the messiness of the restructuring and assumes the story ends there. That’s the classic setup where the next leg of the cycle can be underpriced: investors anchor on past pain and ignore forward operating leverage. Pounding the table.

another good point. I'd then extend the thinking to say that you could say TAM is 4x once you weigh the servicer mix. Banks spent a decade exiting consumer mortgaging for regulatory and capital reasons. They never came back. All of the FHA origination that winds up in a PE backed servicer or Independent is permanently in the outsourced default channel. The relationship building with non-bank lenders today anchors them to servicing those contracts as the vintages season over the next 1-5 years.

@OneTrickPony you could go even further: non-banks capture a much larger piece of a more propped up mortgage market now. Those PE-funds whatever are asset-light and rely on sub-servicing. $ASPS doesn´t have to compete with $RKT in-house, they just service credit unions and so on

$ASPS updated investment Pitch given most recent data. The thesis has shifted from prediction to confirmation. Enjoy

My completely moronic take…… After spacex ipo why wouldn’t Elon use it to buy tesla in an all stock transaction and consolidate everything

Model A was the prior pitch. Model B is the correct TAM-adjusted "2019 equivalent." Model C captures what continued home price/loan balance growth would add on top. The pre-recession upper bound, pool-rate normalized, reaches $63–73/share — illustrative, not a base case, but it defines what the platform is capable of in a genuinely stressed cycle.

@mariusO_O Yeah......... that hits hard......

Luck != Good capital allocator your 21% compounding is from FoA monopoly printing cash and ignores Zucks/Meta's terrible decisions Reality Labs(Metaverse) = $80+ billion in losses and still burning 19B/year Whatsapp (2014 for 19BN) = Lost more than 1 billion annually until 2020 and is just now running low single digit Billions in annual revs Libra (Crypto) not disclosed but hundreds of millions flushed Giphy- bought for 400M...... Sold for 53M Parse (-85MM), Onavo (-200MM), Slingshot, Rooms, Riff, Lifestage, Creative Labs incubator, Portal smart displays. ALL losses Overhired during COVID = billions in layoff and restructuring costs The nosebleed prices paid for AI talent is guiding $115-135B in 2026 CAPEX, now needed to be partially funded by debt and not entirely by FoA Family of Apps revenue will keep the ship afloat, but I'm arguing $Meta is like an oil sheikh, wasteful and spendthrift bailed out by the oil (FoA ad cash). You are trying to tell me the oil price going up means the wasteful spending is brilliant.

@OneTrickPony @ActAccordingly Listen I know you are just a rabbit, but how you look at a stonk that’s compounded at 21% for nearly two decades and call that a terrible capital allocator

Why does $META (as a stock) act so poorly? (Feel free to answer with "other" in the replies"

In the United States car seat laws mandating use until age 8 save 57 lives each year at the cost of about 8,000 births.

Resin pricing could get really out of control. Got this email from a film vendor that Exxon and Dow going to push more pricing. 20-30 cents per pound is a 40-50 pct increase alone. Anything plastic is going to see massive price increases. Some companies won’t survive this.

Hang on… Chicago wants to attract more tourists. It has created a marketing campaign to do that; and, in order to fund it, the city is… making it more expensive to stay in Chicago by raising taxes on hotel rooms? Do I have that right?

The snowpack in the Western U.S. is all but gone. It is supposed to be at it's annual peak this week.

Ha... I muted 2 people and my feed returned to normal. Sweet

I had my entire X feed curated to only be FinTwit. Its devolved entirely to politics and opinion...... Let the culling begin!

@Catahoula_Value @DataTracker87 Completely agree, and now for something completely off topic. I can never hear the words JarJar and not think of this absolutely brilliant theory.... reddit.com/r/StarWars/com…

@OneTrickPony @DataTracker87 Jarring for seventeen hours is basically the Jar Jar Binks of drilling operations. Technically part of the plan, but everyone wishes it weren’t.

$GULTU Well Update. No flights. The crew found that a pin connection had parted in drill pipe. Left drill pipe and the bottom hole assembly in the wellbore. Attempted to engage and retrieve the remaining downhole equipment using an overshot fishing tool at a depth of 23,279 ft, but the fishing jar failed. They then pulled out of the hole to obtain a new fishing jar and made another attempt, again successfully latching onto the fish with the overshot tool, but the fishing jar failed once more. The crew subsequently pulled out of the hole again to switch to drilling jars and reattempted the fishing operation, successfully latching onto the fish at the same depth. They applied jarring action on the fish for seventeen hours without any movement. Ultimately, they performed a blind backoff operation and began pulling out of the hole.

I hope no one needs an MRI this year. The world's largest producer of liquified helium is in Qatar and is shut off. We just got a notice that our supply for the year will be at least cut in half. No one could have predicted this (unless they thought about it).