PA Weather Plus, LLC

** NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING ** Yes, you may see that my map is significantly different from the Storm Prediction Center outlook, but I have some differences regarding the setup today, especially across central/eastern Pennsylvania. Thicker wildfire smoke, morning convection, and cloud cover will help to limit the risk in these regions. I am more focused on the cold front across northwestern and northern Pennsylvania, which may pack more of a punch with numerous damaging wind gusts later this afternoon. But overall: today's setup remains very complicated as there are many boom/bust scenarios. If we did not have morning smoke/clouds/rain, today would have had more confidence for a larger severe outbreak, but I think there are too many limiting factors. Nevertheless, read all of the post for the details! Also, keep in mind, I updated the percentages for each Zone outline to better understand each risk with its respective coverage of severe thunderstorms. Also, these are just the severe weather probabilities. The odds for showers/storms will be much higher, and there will be rounds of storms and showers all day throughout the day. ZONE 3: Numerous (50-70%) chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will be wind segments producing wind gusts upwards of 70+ mph, some quarter-sized hail, and a non-zero risk for a spin-up tornado or two. Long-lived wind segments may have the potential to produce straight-line wind damage. ZONE 2: Scattered (30-50% chance) for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will be locally damaging wind gusts of 55 - 70 mph and perhaps some quarter-sized hail. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. (➡️FOR ZONE 2 IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PA: If enough destabilization can occur, supercells may be able to develop during the mid-afternoon hours, which may have much larger hail and the potential for a brief stronger (EF2+) tornado, but this will be very conditional. If supercells do not develop, expect the general Zone 2 risks). ZONE 1: Isolated (10-30% chance) for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will be locally damaging wind gusts of 45 - 60 mph and perhaps some hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. This zone may be in the middle of the two better zones, but I will continue to monitor trends to see if the storms will fill in better through these areas. ⚠️Stay tuned for updates! If you have outdoor plans, the setup today remains quite complicated, but even if there is no severe weather in your location, I would expect to dodge general storms with rain and thunder. Make sure you have a way to receive severe weather alerts and have an indoor shelter to take cover in during a storm.