Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸

@LawrenceLepard Including Real Estate next year.

My assessment. Mark to market is going to be a bitch in this cycle because none of these prices are real. None of them. It happens when the money is completely fake.

@Barchart So the FED will sell their ST paper and buy LT paper. Flatten the Curve at some predetermined rate of let’s say 2.5%.

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury just bought back $15 Billion of their own debt, equaling the largest Treasury buyback in history 🤯👀🫂

@E055Michel1842 @cryptoleeches It’s very possible that keeping the straight closed, is a pathway to higher nominal, GDP, lower bond prices, lower rates, YCC, and ultimately the fed getting very involved as as of prices performed well with negative real rates

We might not see a collapse..who knows..maybe we see higher prices, economic recession without collapse and continued rate cuts first Now if Hormuz stays closed and countries have no fuel, rationing ala covid, no food / shortages, work from home and all that shit, flights cancelled Yes they will print big Maybe that’s what Trump wants..keep Hormuz closed

Your not ready for liquidity crisis and a bank run / collapse. They are still sitting on over $200 Billion + in losses from 2018-2021 bond market collapse. Don't listen to the experts they have no idea what they are doing. Everyone gave up on strategy we have had the best bull market is all of history 17+ years. Hope you enjoyed it while it lasted. $SPY $DJI $NDAQ $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $PLTR $GOOG $AMD

@E055Michel1842 @cryptoleeches Peak to trough declines come first after price shocks and demands shocks….

@cryptoleeches There will be no collapse because they can print money to bail out the banks and will always always choose to do that. History showed it. 2008, 2020, 2023,…

@LawrenceLepard @River Thank you 🙏

@PDPhilaPhil @River Absolutely they are doing that!!

Yes. a Big Print

@LawrenceLepard @River Is it possible they want to sell short term paper and buy long term paper to flatten the curve ?

@PDPhilaPhil @River head fake me thinks

@APompliano I’m in Scottsdale PHX today gas prices are well over $5.00 5.38 to be exact.

Gas prices are now over $4 per gallon in the US. The media will rightfully call out the potential economic pain from this development, but there is some important nuance that you won’t read in the headlines. You are going to read that every visit to the pump costs more, small businesses get squeezed, shipping prices rise, and that flows into everything from groceries to Amazon orders. This is all true and unfortunately these negative impacts hit lower-income households the hardest. But $4 gas is not going to derail the US economy. Most people are stuck in the 2008 mindset, but thankfully that is not the world we live in anymore. Cars are more fuel-efficient, EV adoption is growing, wages are higher in nominal terms, and the economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be. On top of this, America is producing more oil than ever, so high oil prices incentivizes more investment and it creates more jobs domestically. These may not be exciting consolation prizes, but they are factual ramifications from high prices. So what is likely to actually happen? We probably don’t experience a big crash directly from high gas prices. Instead, we see a slow bleed across markets. Consumers pull back a little, sentiment weakens, and politicians start sweating. But $4 gas alone isn’t enough to break the economy. The real danger is stacking negative economic trends. If high gas combines with sticky inflation, high rates, or a weakening job market then that’s when things could quickly unravel. If we don’t get the combination of factors, most of the headlines will be overdone. So for right now, the biggest impact of high gas prices is not economic, but rather psychological.

@LawrenceLepard @River How do you reconcile this view with Miran talking about shrinking the balance sheet? Thx

@River Thank you

@scottmelker Hard to get the masses to bid Bitcoin as a store of value if your not sure on 5yrs the asset is safe from Quantum.

“We’ll deal with that later.” That’s more or less how Bitcoiners have treated the threat of quantum computing for years. It’s always been one of those risks everyone knows exists, but something someone else will deal with. Too abstract, too far away, too easy to ignore. This mindset was shaken up yesterday when Google dropped a paper suggesting quantum computers could break the cryptography behind Bitcoin faster than expected - possibly before the end of the decade - throwing just about everyone into a panic. The key point isn’t that Bitcoin is about to break. It’s that the timeline to this becoming a real problem might be shorter than people thought. And more importantly, the focus isn’t on SHA-256, which secures mining and hashing. It’s on elliptic curve cryptography, the system that protects private keys and proves ownership. If that breaks, it’s not about slowing the network down - it’s about whether coins can be moved without permission. That’s still pretty scary. What most people are missing is that there’s a big difference between something breaking overnight and something gradually becoming vulnerable. If it’s gradual, there’s time to upgrade. Bitcoin has adapted before, and it can adapt again. Even Satoshi talked about this back in 2010 - the assumption was always that stronger cryptography could replace weaker systems if needed. And importantly, none of this exists at scale today. No one has the hardware to actually do this. Not even close. In my opinion, what we’re seeing isn’t an immediate threat. Instead, it’s a strong reminder that the clock is ticking. The more interesting question is what happens if this forces the entire industry to upgrade at once. That kind of pressure doesn’t just fix vulnerabilities - it forces a cleanse and pushes everything to a higher standard. Weak projects, bad infrastructure, and unfinished systems get killed off. The ones that deserve to be here move forward. Quantum could be painful in the short term. But long-term, it will strengthen everything that makes it through. Which is why, despite all the noise, Bitcoin didn’t really react to the news. That’s a huge tell for me. I believe that if this were a right-now problem, price would’ve told you. It always does. The lack of a reaction feels like a subtle signal that the market still believes this gets solved. I could be wrong. I’m never going to pretend this is guaranteed. But I’m still buying. Because this doesn’t feel like something that breaks Bitcoin. It feels like another challenge it eventually adapts to.

@XCapitalMgmt @danroberts0101 Ideally the equity would be higher to allow for more debt. The market is making this more painful with the stock at $34 and risk free rates rising. They will need to use more equity to accelerate the buildout of Childress and SW. They are getting boxed in here.

@PDPhilaPhil @danroberts0101 The $CRWV debt facility announced this morning being oversubscribed shows the market is there despite oil shock fears. That said, I agree w/ you it's time to show some momentum to enhance optionality around ATM.

If I had a direct line to @danroberts0101 (which I don't) I'd say this (after starting with thank you): i. You're solving for optionality at all times. ii. You have an open ATM. Even if you don't intend to draw on it, having a higher share price increases your optionality. iii. Time to compute is a great narrative but it's doing nothing for the stock. iv. Execution has been and will continue to be your greatest differentiation point. Use it. v. Don't wait for May earnings - as you hit milestones throughout Q2 (and beyond), blitz the market with PRs. Why? You will differentiate on proven, consistent execution that competitors cannot match. vi. Horizon 1 delivered? PR. vii. Sweetwater 1 energized? PR. viii. PG and/or Mackenzie (or even Canal) fully contracted? PR. ix. First contract signed for air cooled AI Cloud capacity in Childress? PR. x. Australian datacenter expansion? PR. xi. Datacenter financing for Horizons and/or incremental GPU financing or corporate level debt secured? PR. xii. Sweetwater deal? PR. xiii. Undisclosed sites included in Batch Zero? PR. xiv. Execution in a vacuum lets FUD breathe and reduces optionality. I get that you're hitting a scale where certain developments (e.g., the 10 MW site at PG) are no longer material to the business as a whole, but when the ATM is open, your optionality increases as momentum on execution is made clear. IR is a weapon, not a distraction.

@XCapitalMgmt @danroberts0101 Very fair, lots of factors involved here and some out of their control. If the stock remains at lower level and the cost of debt rises the hill gets steeper and they will have to go much slower to remain competitive. From a cloud perspective, they need to regain their momentum

I heard the exact same thing when they were blitz-scaling Childress mining. I expect they will execute similarly with AI Cloud but I get that the market will be skeptical until milestones actually hit. In April 2025, the market didn't believe they could close a direct deal w/ a hyper.

@AlexSchettino @XCapitalMgmt @danroberts0101 Investment bankers and asset mgrs are very smart but tend not to be great operators. Lots of complexities to manage here. Not easy even for the highest skilled executive and will require some luck on timing and help from financial markets make this work.

@XCapitalMgmt @danroberts0101 @danroberts0101 the fact this needs to be pointed out is pathetic.

@E055Michel1842 @DarioCpx 100% Painting the tape

@DarioCpx They are printing money to pump Markets + month end manipulation

That headline wasn’t just misleading, but completely made up, and coincidentally happens during the last day of the quarter when everyone is busy window dressing their allocations goosing their quarterly performance a little more? This is truly the golden age of financial crime

@E055Michel1842 @Megatron_ron Great point

@Megatron_ron What has America done against Russia in Ukraine? 🤡

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺Hegseth says Russia and China are helping Iran: “We know exactly what Russia and China are doing... we are addressing it.”

@LawrenceLepard The inputs to everything commodity related is up significantly in the last 5-6 weeks. “Come on man” And from Miran………….

You can’t make this shit up.

@LawrenceLepard Except Bitcoin in the future.

Finally a true statement

@LynAldenContact Your from Phila?

The best pizza this broadly experienced gentleman ever had was in Jersey. And it’s true.

I think Qatar supply’s most Helium for Taiwan. This is a real time or JIT business as I don’t think Helium can be stored for very long. If the war extends another 1-2weeks this will not be “business as usual” like the markets prefer to portray. The Que with lead times is likely growing longer, not shorter for compute and memory.

From Claude: This is a significant overstatement. The semiconductor industry won’t collapse because of helium — but helium supply constraints will become a real cost driver and scheduling risk for advanced fabs. More importantly: the US is the world’s largest helium producer, supplying more than 40% of global output , which is largely unaffected. Analysts at Bernstein cited Russian supply growth, stockpiles, and deepened relationships between chipmakers and industrial gas companies as reasons semiconductor production is unlikely to be significantly impacted.

Worked in semiconductors for many years. Usage of helium for making computer chips is ubiquitous and required. We just blew up 30% of the world supply. No helium means no AI chips. No AI chips means no AI data centers. No data centers means no AI bubble. =Market crash.

@AlexSchettino @mikealfred And then have all the optionality in the world to settle and have kids down the road. No question A.

@PDPhilaPhil @mikealfred Fuck yeah Phil 🤣🤣

Imagine you had to choose your life at age 40: Option A: Single. No kids. $50M net worth. 850 credit score. Private jet. Option B: Married. 2 kids. $3M net worth. Drive a Toyota. 10 BTC in cold storage. 500 credit score. Fly Southwest. Be honest, which life are you choosing?