Robin Broosk-Assistant
66 posts
Robin Broosk-Assistant
@PD_Logoxd
Very small Youtuber, normal gamer chad, love to play horror games and rhytm games❤💛💚💜
Katılım Mayıs 2021
102 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
@richardcalhoun Yes! The UK is certainly struggling and things look messy. But any effort to seriously deal with a debt overhang is going to be that. So many others in the G10 cloak themselves in denial and use central banks to artificially cap yields. UK deserves credit for not doing that...
English
In the G10, only the UK in my opinion is making an honest effort to fix its fiscal imbalances. Everyone else is in denial. That to me says long-term yields must keep rising until governments get the message and fiscal policy gets better.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
The worst thing about being out of fiscal space is that every new political leader thinks the constraints that dogged their predecessor don't apply to them. That's the story with Takaichi in Japan. There's a big risk it'll now also be the story in the UK. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-world-of-d…
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Greece was excluded from Draghi-era QE, but it was included in the ECB's more recent QE program. This is why Greek yields are artificially low and amounts to a subsidy for the business model that is Greece: a bunch of shipping oligarchs that help Russia...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/greek-sabota…
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🙈🙉🙊
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
The million Dollar question on Japan is how high long-term yields would be without constant BoJ bond buying. A conservative estimate is that they'd be 300 basis points higher. This is why the Yen keeps falling. Japan's long-term yields are much too low... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-inter…
ART
日本の長期金利はあまりにも低すぎる…
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
The million Dollar question on Japan is how high long-term yields would be without constant BoJ bond buying. A conservative estimate is that they'd be 300 basis points higher. This is why the Yen keeps falling. Japan's long-term yields are much too low... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-inter…
日本語
@robin_j_brooks Thoughtful post on the extent of yield suppression. The cross-country scatter and the estimated 300bp gap highlight a clear anomaly in Japan’s long-term rates relative to its debt burden.
One additional dimension is Japan’s structural inflation dynamics. For over two decades, persistently low or negative inflation kept the natural rate exceptionally low, helping sustain prolonged monetary accommodation and large-scale bond purchases.
It’s also worth noting that very low Japanese rates have not always coincided with yen weakness. Between 2002 and 2011, the yen strengthened notably against the dollar, reflecting safe-haven flows and broader carry-trade dynamics.
With inflation now more sustainably above target and the BoJ gradually reducing bond purchases, the balance between structural factors and policy-driven yield suppression appears to be shifting.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
The million Dollar question on Japan is how high long-term yields would be without constant BoJ bond buying. A conservative estimate is that they'd be 300 basis points higher. This is why the Yen keeps falling. Japan's long-term yields are much too low... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-inter…
English
@RusOilGasExpert It's also the non-renewal of the US sanctions waiver, no? We're back to where a lot of Russian oil is waiting for buyers in floating storage, like before the war with Iran?
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➡️ Some of the increase in oil in transit shown here is due to rising Russian crude exports, which is happening as refining throughput is cut due to drone strikes on refineries.
➡️ An increase in crude exports of 1mmbpd and a 30-day one-way trip to China/India would add 30mn barrels to in-transit volumes.
➡️ But that leaves a lot of oil to be explained by other issues, such as US exports to far-away Asia.
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo
Oil on water in million barrels (Vortexa) #OOTT
English
Angesichts des RUS Angriffskrieges gegen die UKR und der CHN Unterstützung von RUS halte ich es für grob fahrlässig, wenn DEU Wissenschaftler zum Zweck des Wissenstransfers mit CHN und RUS Institutionen in sicherheitsrelevanten Bereichen kooperieren.
handelsblatt.com/politik/deutsc…
Deutsch
If the Houthis blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, that would be a major escalation for oil markets and would push my estimate for peak oil of $125 quite a bit higher. This threat isn't credible at all. It aims to divert US attention from the Iran blockade.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-wil…
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If the BoJ weren't constantly capping long-term JGB yields, in my view they'd be in the double digits. That sounds nuts, but look at how much Italian, Greek and Spanish yields jumped when Lagarde said in March 2020 the ECB isn't here to "close" spreads...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-inter…
English
The million Dollar question on Japan is how high long-term yields would be without constant BoJ bond buying. A conservative estimate is that they'd be 300 basis points higher. This is why the Yen keeps falling. Japan's long-term yields are much too low...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-inter…
English
I did a live stream yesterday on EU sanctions policy and the difficulty of pushing back against commercial interests. Sanctions are a threat to corporate profits, so there will always be pushback. The EU must evolve to deal with that. You can watch here:
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-greece-c…
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Just finished The Midnight Library – such a brilliant read that makes you rethink every small choice. Can’t stop recommending it to everyone!
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