Nathan

Numbers don't necessarily play tricks here, but context absolutely matters. Illinois, for example, has had some outrageously dominant games. Then, beyond that, and more importantly, many of their 7 losses came down to the wire. Why does that matter? Well, there have been very little negative consequences from their losses, as far as the numbers are concerned. Close loss to Alabama (4), close loss to Nebraska (3), close loss to Michigan St. (3), close loss to Wisconsin (2), close loss to UCLA (1). These are essentially coinflip games. If one thing is different, Illinois may win. That can't be said for a lot of other team's losses. The algorithm(s) also don't punish you as badly for these close losses either. Now, for comparison's sake, let's look at Wisconsin, who also has 7 losses (and some marque wins). Big loss to BYU (18), big loss to TCU (11), big loss to Nebraska (30), big loss to Villanova (10), big loss to Purdue (16), big loss to Ohio State (17), big loss to Oregon (14). What could someone take out of this? To me, it is that Illinois is less volatile (thus, a much higher floor), and more capable of playing any level of competition on any given night. They just happened to not close some games they should have won.